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ASML Holding’s central valuation estimate, or fair value, has been adjusted from €1,400.42 to €1,463.42, pointing to a higher price target in the latest research update. This move comes alongside a cluster of upward price target revisions from multiple banks and brokers, even as at least one downgrade highlights that opinions on the stock remain split. As you read on, you will see how these shifting price targets feed into the evolving analyst narrative and what that might mean for tracking ASML’s story over time.
Several firms, including Deutsche Bank, Berenberg, Citi, Barclays, Wells Fargo, RBC Capital, Susquehanna, Bernstein, BofA, TD Cowen and JPMorgan, have lifted ASML price targets in recent months, which points to a generally constructive stance on the company’s long term prospects.
BofA increased its ASML price target to US$1,886 and raised calendar year 2026 to 2028 EPS estimates by 4% to 6%, signaling confidence in the earnings power that analysts see in their models.
TD Cowen, Bernstein, Citi and JPMorgan each made sizeable upward revisions to their targets, indicating that some analysts are comfortable assigning higher valuations to ASML relative to previous research.
Freedom Broker and Barclays have issued upgrades, which adds to the cluster of supportive opinions around execution and the company’s role within the semiconductor supply chain.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
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SK Hynix plans to buy about €8b of chipmaking tools from ASML, highlighting significant equipment demand from a major memory producer.
ASML intends to propose a total dividend for 2025 of €7.50 per ordinary share, described as a 17% increase compared to 2024. This includes a final dividend proposal of €2.70 after three interim dividends of €1.60 already paid in 2025 and 2026.
The company has issued earnings guidance for 2026 on multiple occasions, with total net sales ranges mentioned between €34b and €40b for the full year and quarterly net sales ranges between €8.2b and €9.0b.
ASML has an active share repurchase program, including a new authorization to buy back €12b of shares through December 31, 2028. Recent tranches include €1,700m of buybacks completed by December 31, 2025 and €1,000m completed by March 31, 2026.
Story Continues
The fair value estimate moved from €1,400.42 to €1,463.42 as the updated central valuation figure.
The revenue growth assumption shifted from 14.56% to 16.07% for future periods measured in euros.
The net profit margin assumption was adjusted from 33.94% to 34.30% of revenue.
The future P/E multiple changed from 39.43x to 37.95x in the valuation model.
The discount rate moved from 8.74% to 8.69% as the required return input.
Narratives link a company’s story to its financial forecast and fair value, so you can see how product cycles, end markets and risks connect to the numbers. They refresh as new research, guidance and news are incorporated.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on ASML Holding to stay up to date on:
How EUV and High NA platforms, including the NXE:3800E, are expected to support productivity and cost of technology reductions for chipmakers.
The role of AI driven semiconductor demand, High NA system ramp up and Installed Base Management in analysts’ revenue and margin assumptions.
Key risks such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions around China and the U.S., and the timing and maturity of High NA adoption that could challenge this story.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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