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Investors may be wondering whether ASML Holding’s share price reflects its current value, or if expectations have run ahead of the fundamentals.
The stock last closed at €1,245.00, with returns of 10.4% over 30 days and 122.6% over 1 year. These moves can change how investors think about both upside potential and risk.
Recent coverage has focused on ASML Holding’s role in the semiconductor supply chain and how its equipment sits at the heart of advanced chip manufacturing capacity. This context helps explain why the market has been quick to react to any updates about demand for its tools, customer investment plans, or broader chip sector sentiment.
ASML Holding currently has a valuation score of 3 out of 6. The next sections will break that down across different valuation methods before circling back to an even more complete way of thinking about what the stock might be worth.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash ASML Holding is expected to generate in the future and then discounts those projected amounts back to today to estimate what the business could be worth in € right now.
ASML Holding has last twelve months free cash flow of about €8.37b. Analyst and extrapolated projections used in this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model include forecast free cash flow reaching €20.34b in 2030, with a detailed path of annual cash flows between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back to today using Simply Wall St assumptions.
On this basis, the DCF model suggests an estimated intrinsic value of about €728.48 per share. Compared with the latest share price of €1,245.00, the DCF output points to the shares trading at roughly a 70.9% premium to this cash flow based estimate, which indicates ASML Holding screens as overvalued using this method.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 70.9%. Discover 231 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
For a profitable business like ASML Holding, the P/E ratio is a common way to think about value because it links what you pay per share to the earnings that support that price. In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower, more cautious multiple.
ASML Holding currently trades on a P/E of 47.86x. That sits below the peer group average of 70.50x, and slightly below the broader Semiconductor industry average of 49.05x. On the surface, that could suggest the shares are priced more conservatively than some peers.
Simply Wall St also provides a Fair Ratio of 49.93x, which is the P/E level its model suggests for ASML Holding after weighing factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. This Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own profile rather than assuming all chip names deserve similar multiples. With the actual P/E of 47.86x sitting a little below the Fair Ratio of 49.93x, ASML Holding screens as slightly undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
ENXTAM:ASML P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Earlier there was mention of an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in, letting you attach a clear story about ASML Holding to the numbers by linking your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a fair value that you can compare directly with today’s price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are easy to use, with millions of investors already building and sharing their own stories that connect what ASML does in the chip equipment supply chain to detailed forecasts and a resulting estimate of what the shares might be worth.
Each Narrative ties together three things: your explanation of the business, a forward looking financial model and a fair value per share. It then keeps that view up to date as new information such as earnings, guidance or news is incorporated into the assumptions.
For ASML Holding, one investor Narrative currently anchors on a fair value around €920.00 while another sits closer to €1,610.19. By seeing that range and the assumptions behind it, you can decide whether your own Narrative would make the current €1,245.00 share price look high, low or roughly in line before deciding if and when to act.
For ASML Holding however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ASML Holding Narratives:
🐂 ASML Holding Bull Case
Fair value: about €1,308.76 per share
Implied valuation gap vs last close of €1,245.00: roughly 4.9% below this narrative fair value, so the stock screens as modestly undervalued on these assumptions.
Revenue growth assumption: 15%
This narrative leans on ASML’s long history, customer relationships and focus on lithography to argue that its position in advanced chip tools is very hard to replicate.
The author expects High NA EUV work and past development spending to support profit margins and underpins the use of a 35x future P/E multiple.
Using those inputs, the narrative arrives at a fair value above the current share price and frames ASML as a European cornerstone in advanced manufacturing technology.
🐻 ASML Holding Bear Case
Fair value: about €1,000.00 per share
Implied valuation gap vs last close of €1,245.00: roughly 24.5% above this narrative fair value, so the stock screens as meaningfully overvalued on these assumptions.
Revenue growth assumption: 17.26%
This narrative highlights ASML’s role as the sole EUV supplier and points to recent quarterly figures such as €7.7b in net sales, a 53.7% gross margin and €2.3b in net income.
The author flags management comments around possible sales growth stalling in 2026, along with macro and geopolitical risks, as key reasons to be cautious on the current price.
Even with an EUV monopoly, strong bookings and shareholder returns, the narrative concludes that the recent share price strength leaves limited room above its fair value estimate.
If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between these kinds of assumptions and fair values, the full set of community Narratives on ASML can give useful context before you decide how the current €1,245.00 share price fits your own view of the company.
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ASML Holding on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you’ll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there’s more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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