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Wondering if ASML Holding at around US$1,478 a share still lines up with the value you want to pay, or if the excitement has already been priced in.
The stock has seen sharp moves recently, with returns of 12.2% over 7 days, 6.6% over 30 days, 27.0% year to date, and 122.7% over the past year, which can change how investors think about both opportunity and risk.
These price moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on ASML’s role in advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, as investors track how its technology is positioned in the global chip supply chain. News coverage often focuses on ASML’s importance to leading chip producers and the wider industry, which helps frame why the stock attracts such interest.
Even with this backdrop, ASML currently scores 1 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, as shown by its valuation score. Next up is a closer look at traditional valuation tools like P/E and discounted cash flow, before finishing with a way of thinking about value that goes beyond any single model.
ASML Holding scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value per share.
For ASML Holding, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €10.48b. Simply Wall St uses analyst free cash flow estimates where available and then extends them further out, with the ten year projection reaching around €19.87b in 2030.
After discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about US$774.52 per share. Compared with the current share price of roughly US$1,478, the DCF output suggests the stock is 90.9% above this intrinsic value estimate. This points to ASML Holding trading at a high premium to this particular cash flow model.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 90.9%. Discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
Story continues
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are currently paying for each dollar of earnings. This makes it a common way to compare valuations across similar businesses.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower multiple.
ASML Holding currently trades on a P/E of about 50.9x. That sits above the broader Semiconductor industry average of roughly 41.3x, but below the peer group average of around 61.8x. Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 35.4x. This Fair Ratio reflects factors such as ASML Holding’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market capitalization and specific risks, rather than relying only on simple peer or industry comparisons.
Because it is tailored to the company’s own fundamentals, the Fair Ratio can offer a more targeted yardstick than just lining ASML Holding up against sector averages. Comparing the current P/E of 50.9x with the Fair Ratio of 35.4x suggests the shares are trading above this custom benchmark.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:ASML P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives take the story you believe about ASML Holding, link that story to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, convert those into a Fair Value, then constantly update that view on Simply Wall St’s Community page as new news or earnings arrive. This allows you to compare Fair Value to the current price and see, for example, how one ASML Holding Narrative might anchor on a Fair Value of about US$1,003 per share, while another uses a much lower or higher figure based on a different outlook for its EUV business, order book or profit margins.
Do you think there’s more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.
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