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Wondering whether ASML Holding at €1,161 is still priced reasonably or starting to look stretched? This article breaks down what that number could mean for you.
The stock has recently posted returns of 3.7% over 7 days, 1.2% over 30 days, 17.7% year to date, 104.1% over 1 year, 95.3% over 3 years and 131.4% over 5 years, which has put valuation questions front and center for many investors.
Recent coverage has focused on ASML Holding’s role in the semiconductor supply chain and how sentiment toward chip related names is feeding into its share price. That context matters because shifts in expectations around demand, supply constraints or capital spending can all influence how investors think about what the current price implies.
ASML Holding currently has a valuation score of 3/6, with each point reflecting a check where the company screens as undervalued. Next you will see how methods like DCF and multiples line up with that score, plus a different way to think about valuation that may be even more useful by the end of the article.
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth per share right now.
For ASML Holding, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €10.48b. Based on analyst inputs for the early years and then extrapolations by Simply Wall St, projected free cash flow reaches €19.87b in 2030, with intermediate years ranging from around €8.23b in 2026 to €24.37b in 2035.
When these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model suggests an estimated intrinsic value of about €707.86 per share, compared with the current share price of roughly €1,161. On this basis, the stock screens as around 64.0% above the DCF estimate. This points to a rich valuation using this method alone.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 64.0%. Discover 247 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
For a profitable company like ASML Holding, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each euro of current earnings. Investors tend to accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E when they expect slower growth or see higher risk.
ASML Holding currently trades on a P/E of 46.5x. That sits above the Semiconductor industry average P/E of 40.4x, yet below the peer group average of 60.0x. On the surface, that points to a valuation that is richer than the broader industry but not at the very top end of peers.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for ASML Holding is 48.8x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might look like after factoring in elements such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. That makes it a more tailored yardstick than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages, which treat very different businesses as if they were the same. With the current P/E of 46.5x sitting slightly below the Fair Ratio of 48.8x, the shares screen as modestly undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
ENXTAM:ASML P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives step in as your way to attach a clear story about ASML Holding to the numbers you see, by linking your view of its role in EUV lithography and chip demand to specific assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and a resulting fair value that can then be compared with the current €1,161 share price to decide whether it looks attractive or expensive to you. All of this happens inside Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are used by millions of investors and update automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might publish a Narrative that anchors on a fair value around €725 based on tighter geopolitical risk assumptions, while another anchors closer to €1,600 on stronger wafer fab equipment spending. Both can clearly see how their story translates into a forecast and a fair value number instead of just a gut feeling.
For ASML Holding however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ASML Holding Narratives:
Here is how one bullish and one cautious storyline translate into numbers you can quickly compare against the current €1,161 share price.
🐂 ASML Holding Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: €1,308.76 per share.
Implied pricing vs that fair value: around 11.3% below the narrative estimate based on the current €1,161 share price.
Revenue growth assumption: 15% a year.
Frames ASML as a rare European champion in lithography, with a long history of focus on this single niche and close collaboration with leading chipmakers.
Highlights a very wide moat built on EUV leadership, deep customer integration and long development timelines that are hard for rivals to match.
Builds a case that High NA EUV, margin strength and ASML’s role in advanced chips can justify a fair value above the current share price, while still flagging geopolitical risk as a key watch point.
🐻 ASML Holding Bear Case
Fair value in this more cautious narrative: €1,000.00 per share.
Implied pricing vs that fair value: around 16.1% above the narrative estimate based on the current €1,161 share price.
Revenue growth assumption: 17.26% a year.
Focuses on ASML’s position as the sole supplier of EUV tools and its importance to major customers such as TSMC, Intel and Samsung, while still questioning how much of that quality is already reflected in the share price.
Points out that even with solid recent figures and strong bookings, comments about possible flat sales in 2026 and export controls on China have weighed on sentiment.
Argues that, compared with a fair value closer to €1,000, today’s price looks full, so investors might want to think carefully about how much growth and margin strength they are assuming from here.
Both narratives start from the same business, but they attach different fair value anchors and growth assumptions to it. This is exactly how Narratives can help you stress test your own view before making any moves on the stock.
If you want to see how other investors are framing the same numbers, and how their stories change as new data comes in, See what the community is saying about ASML Holding.
Do you think there’s more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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