To own ASML, you essentially need to believe its EUV leadership and AI-driven chip demand can support healthy long term equipment and service sales, despite cyclical swings. The key near term catalyst is whether customers keep accelerating advanced-node capacity, and Q1\u2019s raised \u20ac36 billion to \u20ac40 billion revenue outlook reinforces that theme. The biggest risk right now is tightening China export controls, which the softer Q2 guide and lower China mix have brought into sharper focus.<\/p>\n
The most relevant update here is ASML\u2019s decision to stop publishing quarterly bookings, a metric that many investors once used as a demand barometer. Coupled with the higher 2026 sales range, this shift puts more weight on actual shipments and management commentary for gauging momentum, especially as AI-related EUV demand runs hot while export restrictions and licensing requirements add uncertainty around how broad and durable that order strength really is.<\/p>\n
But even with strong AI demand, rising export controls on China are a risk investors should be aware of because…<\/p>\n
Read the full narrative on ASML Holding (it’s free!)<\/a><\/p>\n ASML Holding’s narrative projects \u20ac49.1 billion revenue and \u20ac16.7 billion earnings by 2029.<\/p>\n Uncover how ASML Holding’s forecasts yield a \u20ac1400 fair value<\/a>, a 14% upside to its current price.<\/p>\n Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about \u20ac42.3 billion by 2029, and the latest export control headlines could make their concerns about tighter market access and margin pressure feel more relevant, so it is worth seeing how these more pessimistic views might evolve from here.<\/p>\n Explore 62 other fair value estimates on ASML Holding<\/a> – why the stock might be worth as much as 30% more than the current price!<\/p>\n Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.<\/p>\n Markets shift fast. These stocks won’t stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:<\/p>\n This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.<\/p>\n Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS<\/a>.<\/p>\n Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch<\/a> with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ASML Holding\u2019s Q1 2026 results, released on April 15, showed sales and earnings ahead of expectations and a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[2307,65,301,87,2909,198],"class_list":{"0":"post-3270","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asml","8":"tag-ai-revolution","9":"tag-asml","10":"tag-asml-holding","11":"tag-china","12":"tag-chip-demand","13":"tag-export-controls"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3270\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"ENXTAM:ASML](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/d12fe06c531afc103782f72b4e63a31b.png\")
<\/a> ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart <\/p>\n