{"id":6083,"date":"2026-04-26T13:46:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T13:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/6083\/"},"modified":"2026-04-26T13:46:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T13:46:09","slug":"is-it-too-late-to-consider-asml-holding-nasdaqgsasml-after-117-one-year-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/6083\/","title":{"rendered":"Is It Too Late To Consider ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) After 117% One Year Surge?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio<\/a> and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.<\/p>\n

If you are wondering whether ASML Holding at around US$1,457.70 is priced for perfection or still offers value, the starting point is to separate story from numbers.<\/p>\n

The stock has seen a 0.1% decline over the last 7 days, a 11.9% return over 30 days, 25.3% year to date, and 116.8% over 1 year, which naturally raises questions about how much optimism is already in the share price.<\/p>\n

Recent coverage has focused on ASML Holding’s central role as a key supplier to the semiconductor industry and its position within global chip supply chains. These themes help explain why the stock has been closely watched by investors. This context matters because sentiment around chip demand and capital spending often feeds directly into how the market treats ASML Holding’s valuation.<\/p>\n

Even with that backdrop, ASML Holding currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6<\/a>. The next step is to look at how different valuation methods assess the stock today and then consider a broader framework that can give you an even clearer read on what the price might be telling you.<\/p>\n

ASML Holding scores just 2\/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using the idea that cash received in the future is worth less than cash received now.<\/p>\n

For ASML Holding, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flows reported in \u20ac and a share price quoted in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about \u20ac8.37b. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest free cash flow reaching about \u20ac20.34b by 2030, with a path of annual figures between 2026 and 2035 that Simply Wall St discounts back to a present value using its own assumptions.<\/p>\n

Putting these cash flows together, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about \u20ac791.57 per share. Compared with the current share price of about US$1,457.70, this output implies the stock is 84.2% overvalued on this DCF view.<\/p>\n

Result: OVERVALUED<\/p>\n

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 84.2%. Discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks<\/a> or create your own screener<\/a> to find better value opportunities.<\/p>\n

\"ASML<\/a> ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 <\/p>\n

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ASML Holding.<\/a><\/p>\n

Story Continues <\/p>\n

P\/E is a common way to look at profitable companies because it connects what you pay for each share with the earnings that company is already generating. In simple terms, the higher the expected growth and the lower the perceived risk, the higher a \u201cnormal\u201d P\/E investors might be prepared to accept, and vice versa.<\/p>\n

ASML Holding currently trades on a P\/E of about 48.0x. That sits below the peer group average of 66.5x and slightly below the broader Semiconductor industry average of about 50.8x. On the surface, that suggests the stock is not at the very top of its group on earnings expectations.<\/p>\n

Simply Wall St\u2019s Fair Ratio for ASML Holding is 35.4x. This is a proprietary gauge of what P\/E might fit the company given factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market value and specific risks. Because it blends these inputs rather than relying only on simple peer or industry comparisons, it can offer a more tailored reference point. With the current P\/E at 48.0x versus a Fair Ratio of 35.4x, the shares screen as expensive on this metric.<\/p>\n

Result: OVERVALUED<\/p>\n

\"NasdaqGS:ASML<\/a> NasdaqGS:ASML P\/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 <\/p>\n

P\/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and that is through Narratives. In this approach, you set a clear story for ASML Holding, link it to your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, turn that into a fair value, and then compare that fair value with today\u2019s price using an accessible tool on Simply Wall St\u2019s Community page that refreshes as new earnings or news arrive. For example, one investor might build a cautious Narrative with lower growth and a fair value well below the current US$1,457.70 share price. Another investor, using the same company data that currently implies a Simply Wall St fair value of about US$1,002.53, might choose a more optimistic story and arrive at a higher fair value that leads to very different decisions.<\/p>\n

Do you think there’s more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!<\/a><\/p>\n

\"NasdaqGS:ASML<\/a> NasdaqGS:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart <\/p>\n

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.<\/p>\n

Companies discussed in this article include ASML<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch<\/a> with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":792,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[65,301,899,897,898,865,267],"class_list":{"0":"post-6083","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asml","8":"tag-asml","9":"tag-asml-holding","10":"tag-cash-flow","11":"tag-dcf","12":"tag-free-cash-flow","13":"tag-semiconductor-industry","14":"tag-share-price"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/netherlands\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}