🌀EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: How close expected-Hurricane Lala comes to Hawaii’s Big Island will dictate how strong it will be as it lashes the other parts of the state through the weekend. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has the exclusive analysis:

THE TAKEAWAY

Lala to strengthen into a hurricane as it passes Hawaii; forecast to make its closest approach on SaturdayThe Big Island is expected to take a hard hit with extreme rain and intense windsParts of Hawaii will see impacts well before and well after the center of the storm approaches the islandsHawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency Thursday

HONOLULU — Tropical Storm Watches have expanded to include Honolulu as Tropical Storm Lala closes in on Hawaii, with the system expected to become a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the islands with intense wind and flooding rain. 

Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a State of Emergency on Thursday ahead of the storm, warning that “Lala poses a serious threat to our state, particularly HawaiÊ»i Island.”

The Big Island is expected to see rain from Lala’s outer bands beginning midday Friday local time, with downpours expected to steadily intensify through the evening.

LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS

Tropical Storm Lala

Tropical Storm Lala

(FOX Weather)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning now covers Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for the remainder of the state, including Honolulu and the rest of Oahu, as the storm continues its approach. 

WHAT HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MEAN

Tropical Storm Lala is currently about 420 miles southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) no longer expects a direct landfall on the Big Island, with Lala expected to pass just south sometime Saturday.

However, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross warned that the islands will still feel Lala’s most intense impacts.

Lala forecast track

Lala forecast track

(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

“Whether the center of Lala officially makes landfall on the Big Island or passes by just to the south, Hawaii Island will take a hard hit,” Norcross said. 

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND A HURRICANE?

Across higher terrain and the windward, or eastern, sides of the Big Island and Maui, totals could reach between 12 and 18 inches. This could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

“Extreme rainfall – over 2 feet in some locations – will fall on the east flank of the huge mountains.”

Tropical Storm Alerts

Tropical Storm Alerts

(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

According to the FOX Forecast Center, rainfall totals of 5-8 inches are expected across most of the islands through Sunday.

Because the storm is tracking parallel to the island chain, Hawaii faces a prolonged rainfall event through the weekend, with heavy feeder bands threatening localized, intense downpours.

Peak impacts will begin on Oahu on Sunday.

Expected rainfall

Expected rainfall

(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

In addition, sustained winds up to 60 mph are expected to lash the Big Island as Lala makes its pass Saturday, with gusts potentially topping 100 mph at higher elevations.

Between 1 and 3 feet of storm surge, water over normally dry land, is forecast statewide, with towering surf with waves potentially exceeding 30 feet.

“Huge waves will crash against the east and south coast of the Big Island, pushing water into low-lying areas,” Norcross said.

EL NIÑO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO RECORD TERRITORY, INCREASED ODDS OF REACHING ‘SUPER’ STATUS BY YEAR’S END

Tides are already elevated due to strong trade winds, the moon’s distance from the earth, and thermal expansion of the ocean due to the water being unusually warm. 

Exclusive FOX Weather Threat Zone

Exclusive FOX Weather Threat Zone

(FOX Weather)

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency Thursday as officials prepare for potentially significant impacts across the islands.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

“Tropical Storm Lala poses a serious threat to our state, particularly HawaiÊ»i Island — and we are taking action now to ensure resources are available where they are needed,” Governor Green said.

“I urge everyone to secure their homes, gather essential supplies, review their family emergency plans and follow updates from trusted official sources. Please take this storm seriously and look out for one another.”

Tropical Storm Lala is continuing to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, putting the Hawaiian Islands on watch. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Big Island, with catastrophic flooding likely. Kīelekū Amundson, Communications Director for the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency, joined FOX Weather to discuss preparations that are already underway.

The last tropical storm to make landfall in Hawaii was Olivia, which came ashore on Maui and Lanai in 2018. 

Before that, the last hurricane to hit the state was Category 4 Iniki in 1992, which remains the costliest hurricane in Hawaiian history.

Tropical Storm Lala formed in the Central Pacific Thursday.

HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED? THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINED

Tropical Storm Iniki over the North Pacific, dissipating from hurricane status when this photo was taken from the Space Shuttle Endeavour during mission STS-47, 12th to 20th September 1992. Two days prior, as a full fledged hurricane, with winds of about 150 mph and waves of over 15 ft., it swept over the Hawaiian island of Kauai, but as Iniki moved over the colder waters of the North Pacific, it began to weaken as can be seen by the lack of a tight spiral gyre and the absence of an eye in the center.

Tropical Storm Iniki over the North Pacific, dissipating from hurricane status when this photo was taken from the Space Shuttle Endeavour during mission STS-47, 12th to 20th September 1992. Two days prior, as a full fledged hurricane, with winds of about 150 mph and waves of over 15 ft., it swept over the Hawaiian island of Kauai, but as Iniki moved over the colder waters of the North Pacific, it began to weaken as can be seen by the lack of a tight spiral gyre and the absence of an eye in the center. 

(Space Frontiers/Archive Photos/Hulton Archive / Getty Images)

Lala’s formation is part of a broader trend of increased tropical activity in the Pacific Basin due in part to the rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern.

During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter global atmospheric circulation. 

WHAT IS A SUPER EL NINO?

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hernan remains a weak tropical storm in the middle of the Eastern Pacific and will have no impacts to land.

Stay with FOX Weather for the latest updates.