Winter sports enthusiasts in California can finally jump with excitement as a new forecast predicts record-breaking snowfall in states across the Southwest US.
According to OpenSnow’s newly released 2026–2027 Winter Forecast Preview, a developing El Niño pattern is setting the stage for an above-average snowfall season across California and Nevada, with the heaviest storm cycles expected to ramp up after the new year.
While all California mountain ranges stand to benefit from the active storm track, data indicates that the Central Sierra holds the highest statistical probability for well-above-average snow accumulation.
Destinations like Mammoth Mountain and China Peak sit squarely in the bullseye of the strongest forecast signals, according to OpenSnow.
Freshly fallen snow covers Mount Whitney in the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range in California circa March 2017. Getty Images/RooM RF
A scenic view of Convict Lake by snowcapped mountains against the sky during sunset in California. Getty Images/500px
A developing El Niño pattern is setting the stage for an above-average snowfall season across California and Nevada. X/@Opensnow
Meteorologist Alan Smith said the developing “super El Niño” played a significant role in shaping OpenSnow’s winter forecast, which draws on historical strong El Niño winters, oceanic and atmospheric conditions and seasonal climate models.
Northern California and the Tahoe region are also projected to lean warmer than average. While warmer atmospheric rivers could push snow levels higher during certain storm fronts, forecasters do not expect extreme warmth matching last season’s historic highs.
“We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the US, including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track,” Smith said.
A person skis down a mountain in Lake Tahoe. Getty Images
With below-normal snowfall favored along the northern US border and across western Canada, the Southwest and California could turn out to be North America’s premier snow destinations for the 2026–2027 season.
“SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Niño winters (especially strong ones) compared to neutral or La Niña winters,” Smith added.
Forecasters highlighted that strong El Niño events don’t always guarantee a “record-breaking” winter everywhere.
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The last major “super El Niño” during the 2015–2016 season famously failed to deliver the historic snow totals that many anticipated for the Tahoe region, ultimately finishing near seasonal averages and below average in Southern California.
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