Too moderate for Massachusetts? Poll suggests why Moulton trails Markey in US Senate race
NEEDHAM, Mass. —
Democratic primary voters favor Sen. Ed Markey over Rep. Seth Moulton by nearly 2 to 1 in Massachusetts’ U.S. Senate contest, while also giving the incumbent a substantial advantage on trust, honesty and progressive ideology, according to a new poll.
When they last shared a debate stage, Markey and Moulton clashed with personal attacks. Political analyst Mary Anne Marsh said their behavior suggested the candidates believed this is a tight race, although the new polling contradicts that assumption.
Ahead of the Massachusetts primary election and the final debate between Markey and Moulton on Thursday, the UMass Amherst/WCVB poll found Markey has the support of 60% of likely primary voters, while Moulton has the support of 32%.
It’s a massive shift from a University of New Hampshire poll in July that showed Markey’s lead was just 6%.
“I can feel that there’s a lot of enthusiasm out there right now as I go from Boston to Springfield to Worcester. Every community I can feel an energy level as I talk about affordability issues,” Markey said Monday.
“Unfortunately, it’s just not a trusted pollster,” Moulton said. “The methodology is way off. And of course, we’ve seen polling that is wildly inaccurate in all the Senate primaries across the nation just in the last few months.”
Video below: Why voters have swayed views on Moulton, Markey
Among those who said they would support Markey in the new UMass poll, the trait they identified most often was his progressivism. Additionally, the likely primary voters in the poll described Markey as the more liberal candidate.
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The poll is based on responses from 800 registered voters, collected between Aug. 5 and 12. Of those respondents, 445 were self-identified as Democratic primary voters.
The overall margin of error for the poll is 4.4%, and the margin of error among Democratic primary voters is 5.8%.
While one of Moulton’s central campaign arguments is that he represents a younger generation of leadership, and the poll found he is perceived to be more energetic, the results indicate that Democrats give Markey credit for his experience, honesty, intelligence and work ethic.
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Overall, those who participated in the poll said they were pleased with the candidates. Half said they were somewhat satisfied with the choices, and another 35% said they were very satisfied.
The poll does show a silver lining for Moulton, who leads Markey by 53% to 30% among independent voters.
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The final debate between Moulton and Markey begins Thursday at 8 p.m. and will be hosted by WCVB NewsCenter 5 in partnership with WBUR and The Boston Globe.
WCVB anchor and “On The Record” co-host Ed Harding will moderate the debate. Panelists will include WCVB political reporter and “On The Record” co-host Sharman Sacchetti, Boston Globe columnist Adrian Walker, and WBUR “Morning Edition” host Tiziana Dearing.
Primary Election Day is Sept. 1, but voters can already cast ballots by mail and early voting begins on Aug. 22.
About the candidates
Moulton, who is 47, has made Markey’s age, 80, and time in office central to his run, saying that it’s time for a new generation of leadership. Moulton also said he supports age limits and term limits for Congress.
Moulton, a moderate Democrat who represents Massachusetts’ 6th district, announced his plans to run against Markey in October. The 47-year-old argues that “it’s time for a new generation of leaders,” as he said during an interview with “On The Record.”
Markey said he’s as energized as he’s ever been, touting decades of experience. He would be 86 at the end of his next term. During a debate in July, Markey pledged that this would be his last term.
Before becoming a senator, Markey served for 37 years in the U.S. House of Representatives. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2013 through a special election, after then-Sen. John Kerry was tapped for Secretary of State. He won reelection in 2014 and 2020.
He has argued that, based on the age of his ideas, “I’ve always been the youngest guy in the room.”
Moulton, who enlisted in the Marines after the Sept. 11 attacks and served four tours of duty in Iraq, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014. He ran unopposed in his last reelection.
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