Republicans were dealt a quadruple polling blow in the Michigan Senate race this week as four new polls gave progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a lead over former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican.
El-Sayed’s victory over centrist Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary created anxiety among some in the party about their chances in Michigan, a critical swing state—particularly after a recent Fox News poll showed Rogers with a lead.
Some Democrats fear El-Sayed may be too far left for such an evenly divided state.
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The Michigan Senate race is one of the most important Senate races of the 2026 midterms, as Democrats’ chances of flipping control of the Senate run through the Great Lakes State. A Democratic loss in Michigan, a seat currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters, would significantly complicate their path to a majority.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, so Democrats have been hopeful about their chances of winning in swing states. But Republicans do see an opportunity in the state, hoping that Rogers can win over moderate voters who may not be aligned with El-Sayed’s more progressive brand of politics.
Abdul El-Sayed Leads Four New Polls of Michigan Senate Race
The series of polls showed El-Sayed with narrow, single-digit leads, meaning the race against Rogers is still expected to be competitive in November. However, they may be welcome news for Democrats after some polling around the primary gave Rogers an advantage.
An AARP poll released on Thursday found El-Sayed leading Rogers by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
El-Sayed received support from 91 percent of Democratic respondents, while Rogers received support from 96 percent of Republicans. Independents narrowly broke for El-Sayed, 48 percent to 42 percent.
There are signs in the poll El-Sayed still has work to do in consolidating the base. He had a 41-point lead among Black voters. Although that’s a lead, it is much more narrow than former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 76-point win among Black voters in Michigan during the 2024 election, per CNN exit poll data.
It surveyed 877 likely voters from August 9 to 11, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research.
Meanwhile, a survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. showed El-Sayed up 7 points, 46 percent to 39 percent.
“Despite public media reports that El-Sayed is facing a divided Democratic electorate after a bruising and closely contested August 4th primary, he leads Rogers 91 percent to 0 percent with self-identified Democrats and leads Rogers 46 percent to 24 percent, with Independents and unaffiliated voters,” the polling report reads.
Both candidates had negative favorability, according to the poll. Forty-five percent of respondents said they viewed El-Sayed unfavorably, while 31 percent viewed him favorably. Meanwhile, 37 percent viewed Rogers unfavorably, while 28 percent viewed him positively.
A key problem for Rogers in the poll is that most Michigan voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance. Democrats hope to make the midterms a referendum on Trump, and his approval has sunk nationwide as inflation and the cost of living remain high, particularly as the Iran War has sent gas prices surging.
In the poll, 56 percent said they disapproved of Trump and 38 percent approved of him. It surveyed 800 likely voters from August 11 to 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
A TIPP Insights poll, sponsored by the Republican group League of American Workers, showed El-Sayed up 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,215 likely voters from August 6 to 10, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points among the likely voter sample.
Furthermore, a GBAO poll, sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, showed El-Sayed up 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 800 likely voters from August 6 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the El-Sayed and Rogers campaigns for comment via email.
Fox News Poll Stirred Democrats’ Anxiety
Earlier in August, a poll from Fox News, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Rogers with a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 1,006 registered voters from August 6 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Before the primary, an EPIC-MRA/MIRS poll showed Rogers up 3 points over El-Sayed, 46 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 600 voters from July 24 to 31, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Some Democrats viewed those polls as underscoring electability concerns around El-Sayed.
Ellis Bates of VoteHub wrote in a post to X about the Fox News poll, “Michigan is the only battleground Senate race Fox News has polled where Republicans are ahead. Democrats lead in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Maine. That makes this a particularly rough poll for the El-Sayed campaign.”
Democratic strategist Mike Hellis wrote, “A pretty sobering poll for Abdul, but lot of time left to turn it around.”
El-Sayed’s performance in the primary also drew attention. Although he led polls against Stevens by a larger margin, he ended up winning by only a single point. It’s unclear whether the polling error would be replicated in the general election.
A Divisive Primary
El-Sayed emerged victorious from a contentious primary against Stevens, a centrist representing the suburbs of Detroit in Congress.
U.S. support for Israel became a major sticking point in the primary and could continue to be a factor in November, as Michigan is home to notable Arab American and Jewish populations. Many Democrats believe former Vice President Kamala Harris lost votes in the state because of her support for Israel.
El-Sayed has cast himself as a critic of the Israeli government.
Some Michigan Democrats have declined to say they would support El-Sayed as the nominee. Representative Hillary Scholten, who represents a district based around Grand Rapids, told Semafor that she would “not stand beside someone who has allowed distinctly anti-American sentiment to enter our public dialogue.”
This week, Michigan state Representative Karen Whitsett attended an event as part of a “Democrats for Rogers” coalition.
According to Michigan Advance, she said during the event that health care is a key issue for her driving her support for Rogers, as El-Sayed has been a supporter of Medicare for All.
“You will lose your health insurance if the other candidate gets in office. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it. That is what Medicare for all means,” she said, according to the report.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets gave El-Sayed an advantage over Rogers on Friday. On Kalshi, El-Sayed had a 63 percent chance of winning, compared to a 65 percent chance on Polymarket. That marks a shift from earlier in August. On August 9, El-Sayed had only a 55 percent chance of winning on Kalshi as Democrats became increasingly concerned about his chances.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
A Contested Battleground
Michigan has become an electoral battleground over the past decade.
Former President Barack Obama easily won the state twice, by more than 16 points in 2008 and by just under 10 points in 2012. But Trump flipped it in 2016, carrying it by less than half a percentage point.
Trump made gains across the state because of his strong showing among white voters in rural areas who backed Obama. He lost ground in the suburbs around Detroit and parts of Western Michigan around cities like Grand Rapids, but rural gains made up for it. Democrats struggled to win back those rural voters in significant numbers in recent cycles but continued to make gains in the suburbs.
Michigan flipped back to Democrats in 2020, when Biden carried it by just under 2 points. But Trump won it again in 2024 by about 1.4 points—the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
Michigan Is Must-Win State for Democrats
The Michigan Senate has key national implications.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must defend all their seats and flip four others to take control of the upper chamber.
Democrats are facing a difficult map, defending seats in two states Trump won in 2024—Georgia and Michigan. Polling in Georgia has been better for Democrats, showing Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff having a polling lead over Representative Mike Collins.
Maine and North Carolina are viewed as Democrats’ top flip opportunities.
In Maine, which Harris won by about 7 points, longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins is up for reelection. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president. Jackson took over the campaign after scandal-plagued Graham Platner exited the race following a primary victory. Collins has shown a remarkable ability to win elections in Maine as she seeks her sixth term.
In North Carolina, which Trump won by about 3 points, former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has built a polling lead against Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring.
But even if Democrats win all of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so Democrats must win at least two seats in double-digit Trump 2024 states to win a majority. Democrats view Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as being potentially competitive, and polls show close races in those states.
If Republicans flip Michigan, Democrats would then need to flip three of those seats, a more difficult feat given their conservative leans.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.