A tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean may struggle to develop in an increasingly hostile environment enhanced by El Niño, potentially extending the Atlantic hurricane season’s quietest start in almost four decades into early September.
Here is the area we’re watching
The graphic below shows the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Atlantic.
It’s over 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest.
(MORE: Hurricane season tracking maps)
Forecast through this weekend
According to the NHC, this area of low pressure could develop in the next couple of days into a tropical depression, then possibly Tropical Storm Dolly.
Editor’s note: The National Hurricane Center plans to use “Dolly” for the next system that reaches tropical storm strength. “No changes to the list,” according to an NHC spokesperson. The name “Dolly” was chosen in the early 1990s and has been on a rotating list of names since 1996 and was also used prior to the 1990s.
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(MORE: The next storm is ‘Dolly’, but it’s not meant as a tribute)
At any rate, this system could approach the Leeward Islands by Sunday.
Will it survive?
However, the system will face a combination of dry air and wind shear as it draws closer to the Leeward Islands.
These two factors, both enhanced by the strengthening El Niño, are hostile to tropical systems. They’re the same factors other tropical wannabes have fought against and lost in recent weeks.
So, even if this system manages to develop, it is likely to weaken as it draws closer to the Leeward Islands this weekend.
(MORE: What is wind shear?)
That may not be the end of the story
Even if this system never develops before the Leeward Islands, this disturbance, known to meteorologists as a tropical wave, will continue moving toward the west-northwest, as all these systems do in hurricane season.
There are a few computer models suggesting this system could have a chance of either developing or redeveloping later next week somewhere near the Bahamas or Bermuda Triangle.
By that time, the atmosphere may become more favorable for development.
(MORE: What tropical terms actually mean)
For now, it’s far too soon to know if that will happen and if it does, where it may track and how strong it may become.
It’s a reminder that while we expect a quieter hurricane season, you should have your hurricane safety plan ready to go and monitor forecasts throughout the season.
It only takes one storm to make a hurricane season impactful.
Hurricane lull meets most active month
We are quickly nearing the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season activity, usually around the second week of September.
However, it has been the quietest start to an Atlantic season in almost 40 years, with only three short-lived tropical storms and no hurricanes, so far.
That’s due in large part to the intensifying El Niño, enhancing wind shear and sinking, dry air hostile for development, as alluded to earlier.
This graph shows the ACE index for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season through Aug. 26 in blue, the average season ACE in black, and other ACE index values of hurricane seasons in the satellite era since 1966 in gray.
(Data: NOAA/NHC)
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia, studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.