President Donald Trump‘s decision to allow more tariff-free imported beef has triggered backlash from some cattle producers and local leaders, but new polling suggests it has yet to produce a measurable shift in his approval ratings across America‘s biggest beef-producing states.
The polling data comes from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking survey of 126,377 responses from registered voters.
A Newsweek analysis compared Civiqs approval figures from August 21, when Trump first announced the tariff waiver, with polling six days later on August 27.
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It also looked back at where Trump’s approval rating stood on January 20, 2025, the first day of his second term, with net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.
Key PointsTrump’s approval rating was unchanged in nine of the 10 biggest beef-producing states in the six days after his August 21 beef announcement.Kansas was the only state to show movement, with a one-point improvement in net approval.Trump’s standing has fallen sharply in major cattle states since the start of his second term, particularly Kentucky, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas.Several states at the center of the beef industry now have negative net approval ratings despite backing Trump strongly at the start of 2025.The policy arrives as Republicans defend competitive races in cattle-producing states including Nebraska and Texas.
Use the map below to explore where Trump’s approval rating stands in America’s biggest beef states.
What To Know
Trump announced on August 21 that the United States would admit up to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef tariff-free for 90 days to help lower ground-beef prices.
The move has angered some ranchers and producer groups while Republicans head into a crucial midterm election stretch with a number of competitive races in major cattle states.
Cattle producers fear lower domestic beef prices, while Republican candidates must balance support for Trump’s affordability agenda with concerns from ranching communities.
The 10 largest beef-producing states account for more than half of the country’s cattle inventory.
Together, they provide a useful snapshot of how Trump’s political standing is holding up in an industry directly affected by the administration’s latest trade decision.
Why It Matters
The White House argues additional imported beef could help bring down food prices for consumers. Critics say it risks hurting domestic producers at a time when ranchers are rebuilding the national cattle herd.
Trump’s Approval Rating in Biggest US Beef States
As of August 27, 2026, Texas, the largest beef-producing state with 4.0 million head of cattle, remained at a net approval rating of -17 when compared to before Trump’s latest announcement.
Oklahoma stayed at +7. Missouri remained at -9, while Nebraska held at -2.
South Dakota stayed at +9, Montana at +7, North Dakota at +19, Florida at -11 and Kentucky at -5.
Kansas was the only member of the top-10 list to move, improving slightly from +1 to +2.
Taken together, the data suggests the beef controversy has not yet produced an immediate statewide polling reaction.
Biggest Beef States Have Seen Larger Changes Since January 2025
While the short-term impact appears limited, the longer-term picture looks very different.
Every one of the top 10 beef-producing states has seen Trump’s net approval deteriorate since the start of his second term, according to a Newsweek analysis of Civiqs data.
Kentucky has experienced the largest decline, falling from +23 on January 20, 2025, to -5 today, a drop of 28 points.
Oklahoma and Missouri are each down 24 points. Texas has moved from +6 to -17, while Kansas has fallen from +23 to +2.
Nebraska has gone from +18 to -2. Florida has slipped from +9 to -11. Montana has dropped from +25 to +7, and South Dakota from +26 to +9.
Even North Dakota, which remains one of Trump’s strongest states, has fallen from +34 to +19.
The pattern shows that support has softened substantially even in states that form the backbone of the U.S. cattle industry.
Nebraska’s Senate Race Was Already Competitive
The policy arrives as Republicans defend closely watched races in several beef-producing states.
An Impact Research poll conducted for independent Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn from August 9 to 13 found Osborn and Republican Senator Pete Ricketts tied at 47 percent. The survey questioned 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
That poll was conducted before Trump’s beef announcement, meaning it cannot measure any reaction to the policy.
Nevertheless, it highlighted how little visible polling cushion Republicans had before the dispute emerged.
Ricketts subsequently criticized increasing imports, saying he would encourage the administration to pursue longer-term solutions. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen also urged policies that do not depend on “bringing in more foreign products.”
Those responses showed concern extending beyond Trump’s political opponents.
Texas Republicans Face Similar Pressure
Texas presents a different challenge.
Recent polls have consistently shown a close Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted online by YouGov from August 5 to 13 put Talarico ahead 42 percent to 39 percent among 1,200 registered voters. The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, increasing to 3.58 points after weighting.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey conducted August 9 to 10 found Paxton leading 47 percent to 46 percent among 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Texas A&M’s Texas Pulse poll, fielded July 27 to 30 among 619 likely voters, gave Talarico a four-point lead and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.
None of those surveys establishes a connection between opinions on imported beef and voting intentions. They do show that Republicans are competing in a state where even modest changes in voter sentiment could matter.
What the White House Says
The White House has defended the administration’s broader economic record and rejected suggestions that recent polling reflects dissatisfaction with Trump’s agenda.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle has repeatedly highlighted what the White House describes as progress on jobs, inflation and housing affordability. In comments the administration has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, Ingle told Newsweek that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump.”
Ingle added that Trump is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more” and said the administration believes “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens