{"id":2416,"date":"2026-03-08T17:08:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T17:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/2416\/"},"modified":"2026-03-08T17:08:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T17:08:08","slug":"the-gulf-resource-most-imperiled-by-war-may-be-water-not-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/2416\/","title":{"rendered":"The Gulf resource most imperiled by war may be water, not oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

As missiles and drones<\/a> curtail energy production across the Persian Gulf, analysts warn that water, not oil, may be the resource most at risk in the energy-rich but arid region.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, Bahrain accused Iran of damaging one of its desalination plants. Earlier, Iran said a U.S. airstrike had damaged an Iranian plant.<\/p>\n

Hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, putting individual systems that supply water to millions within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. Without them, major cities could not sustain their current populations.<\/p>\n

In Kuwait, about 90% of drinking water comes from desalination, along with roughly 86% in Oman and about 70% in Saudi Arabia. The technology removes salt from seawater \u2014 most commonly by pushing it through ultrafine membranes in a process known as reverse osmosis<\/a> \u2014 to produce the freshwater that sustains cities, hotels, industry and some agriculture across one of the world\u2019s driest regions.<\/p>\n

For people living outside the Middle East, the main concern of the Iran war has been the impact on energy prices<\/a>. The Gulf produces about a third of the world\u2019s crude exports and energy revenues underpin national economies. Fighting has already halted tanker traffic through key shipping routes and disrupted port activity, forcing some producers to curb exports as storage tanks fill.<\/p>\n

But the infrastructure that keeps Gulf cities supplied with drinking water may be equally vulnerable. <\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone thinks of Saudi Arabia and their neighbors as petrostates. But I call them saltwater kingdoms. They\u2019re human-made fossil-fueled water superpowers,\u201d said Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. \u201cIt\u2019s both a monumental achievement of the 20th century and a certain kind of vulnerability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Early signs of risk<\/p>\n

The war that began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran has already brought fighting close to key desalination infrastructure. On March 2, Iranian strikes on Dubai\u2019s Jebel Ali port landed some 12 miles from one of the world\u2019s largest desalination plants, which produces much of the city\u2019s drinking water. <\/p>\n

Damage also was reported at the Fujairah F1 power and water complex in the United Arab Emirates, and at Kuwait\u2019s Doha West desalination plant. The damage at the two facilities appeared to have resulted from nearby port attacks or debris from intercepted drones. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"This<\/p>\n

This image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows the Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. (Planet Labs PBC via AP, File)<\/p>\n

This image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows the Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. (Planet Labs PBC via AP, File)<\/p>\n

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On Sunday, Bahrain accused Iran of indiscriminately attacking civilian targets and damaging one of its desalination plants, though it didn\u2019t say supplies have gone offline. The island nation, home to the U.S. Navy\u2019s Fifth Fleet, has been among the countries targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. <\/p>\n

Earlier, Iran said a U.S. airstrike damaged an Iranian desalination plant. Abbas Araghchi, the country\u2019s foreign minister, said the strike on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz had cut into the water supply for 30 villages. He warned that in doing so \u201cthe U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many Gulf desalination plants are physically integrated with power stations as co\u2011generation facilities<\/a>, meaning attacks on electrical infrastructure could also hinder water production. Even where plants are connected to national grids with backup supply routes, disruptions can cascade across interconnected systems, said David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an asymmetrical tactic,\u201d he said. \u201cIran doesn\u2019t have the same capacity to strike back at the United States and Israel. But it does have this possibility to impose costs on the Gulf countries to push them to intervene or call for a cessation of hostilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Desalination plants<\/a> have multiple stages \u2014 intake systems, treatment facilities, energy supplies \u2014 and damage to any part of that chain can interrupt production, according to Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, a publisher serving the water industry. <\/p>\n

\u201cNone of these assets are any more protected than any of the municipal areas that are currently being hit by ballistic missiles or drones,\u201d Cullinane said.<\/p>\n

A long-standing concern<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Fire<\/p>\n

Fire and a plume of smoke is visible after, according to authorities, debris of an Iranian intercepted drone hit the Fujairah oil facility, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo\/Altaf Qadri)<\/p>\n

Fire and a plume of smoke is visible after, according to authorities, debris of an Iranian intercepted drone hit the Fujairah oil facility, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo\/Altaf Qadri)<\/p>\n

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Gulf governments and U.S. officials have long recognized the risks these systems pose for regional stability: if major desalination plants were knocked offline, some cities could lose most of their drinking water within days. A 2010 CIA analysis warned attacks on desalination facilities could trigger national crises in several Gulf states, and prolonged outages could last months if critical equipment were destroyed.<\/p>\n

More than 90% of the Gulf\u2019s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, the report stated, and \u201ceach of these critical plants is extremely vulnerable to sabotage or military action.\u201d<\/p>\n

A leaked 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable warned the Saudi capital of Riyadh \u201cwould have to evacuate within a week\u201d if either the Jubail desalination plant on the Gulf coast or its pipelines or associated power infrastructure were seriously damaged. <\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia has since invested in pipeline networks, storage reservoirs and other redundancies designed to cushion short-term disruptions, as has the UAE. But smaller states such as Bahrain, Qatar<\/a> and Kuwait have fewer backup supplies.<\/p>\n

Climate change could threaten water plants<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A pipe carrying drinking water runs through the Carlsbad desalination plant in Carlsbad, Calif., Dec. 2, 2025. (AP Photo\/Annika Hammerschlag, File)<\/p>\n

A pipe carrying drinking water runs through the Carlsbad desalination plant in Carlsbad, Calif., Dec. 2, 2025. (AP Photo\/Annika Hammerschlag, File)<\/p>\n

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As warming oceans increase the likelihood and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea and raise the chances of landfall on the Arabian Peninsula, storm surge and extreme rainfall could overwhelm drainage systems and damage coastal desalination. <\/p>\n

The plants themselves contribute to the problem. Desalination is energy-intensive, with plants worldwide producing between 500 and 850 million tons of carbon emissions annually, approaching the roughly 880 million tons emitted by the entire global aviation industry. <\/p>\n

The byproduct of desalination, highly concentrated brine, is typically discharged back into the ocean, where it can harm seafloor habitats and coral reefs, while intake systems can trap and kill fish larvae, plankton and other organisms at the base of the marine food web.<\/p>\n

As climate change intensifies droughts, disrupts rainfall patterns and fuels wildfires, desalination is expected to expand in many parts of the world. <\/p>\n

The threat is not hypothetical<\/p>\n

During Iraq\u2019s 1990-1991 invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War, Iraqi forces sabotaged power stations and desalination facilities as they retreated, said the University of Utah\u2019s Low. At the same time, millions of barrels of crude oil were deliberately released into the Persian Gulf, creating one of the largest oil spills in history.<\/p>\n

The massive slick threatened to contaminate seawater intake pipes used by desalination plants across the region. Workers rushed to deploy protective booms around the intake valves of major facilities.<\/p>\n

The destruction left Kuwait largely without fresh water and dependent on emergency water imports. Full recovery took years. <\/p>\n

More recently, Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi desalination facilities amid regional tensions.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A young street vendor carries a pack of water bottles as he looking for customers during a sweltering day on the Mediterranean Sea corniche in Beirut, Lebanon, July 20, 2023. (AP Photo\/Hassan Ammar, File)<\/p>\n

A young street vendor carries a pack of water bottles as he looking for customers during a sweltering day on the Mediterranean Sea corniche in Beirut, Lebanon, July 20, 2023. (AP Photo\/Hassan Ammar, File)<\/p>\n

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The incidents underscore a broader erosion of long-standing norms against attacking civilian infrastructure, Michel said, noting conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza<\/a> and Iraq. <\/p>\n

International humanitarian law, including provisions of the Geneva Conventions, prohibit targeting civilian infrastructure indispensable to the survival of the population, including drinking water facilities.<\/p>\n

The potential for harmful cyberattacks on water infrastructure is a growing concern. In 2023 and 2024, U.S. officials blamed Iran-aligned groups for hacking into several American water utilities.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s own water supply at risk<\/p>\n

After a fifth year of extreme drought, water levels in Tehran\u2019s five reservoirs plunged to some 10% of their capacity, prompting President Masoud Pezeshkian to warn the capital may have to be evacuated. <\/p>\n

Unlike many Gulf states that rely heavily on desalination, Iran still gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and depleted underground aquifers. The country operates a relatively small number of desalination plants, supplying only a fraction of national demand.<\/p>\n

Iran is racing to expand desalination along its southern coast and pump some of the water inland, but infrastructure constraints, energy costs and international sanctions have sharply limited scalability.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey were already thinking of evacuating the capital last summer,\u201d Cullinane of Global Water Intelligence said. \u201cI don\u2019t dare to wonder what it\u2019s going to be like this summer under sustained fire, with an ongoing economic catastrophe and a serious water crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Follow Annika Hammerschlag on Instagram @ahammergram<\/a>.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP\u2019s environmental coverage, visit https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/climate-and-environment<\/a><\/p>\n