A coast-to-coast sprint of partisan one-upmanship in which eight states have redrawn their congressional districts since last summer is likely to escalate next year to at least a dozen more as both parties seek maximum advantage in their battle for control of the House.<\/p>\n
Four states are considering drawing new congressional or judicial maps for partisan gain in the coming weeks that could be implemented in time for the fall midterms. But the real flurry could come next year, when at least a dozen more that sat out this year\u2019s redistricting parade could join the fray.<\/p>\n
The longstanding tradition of drawing political lines only once a decade, after each census, is giving way to an era of perpetual redistricting where officials seek opportunities for partisan gerrymandering at every chance they can. Both parties have ratcheted up their efforts in recent days, assessing every corner of the electoral map for new openings and redoubling their efforts to win control of state capitols, where the power to draw congressional boundaries often lies.<\/p>\n
The States Project, which invests in Democratic legislative races, has targeted six states \u2014 Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Washington \u2014 where gains in state legislatures would protect or add as many as nine congressional seats for the 2028 cycle, according to a memo the group shared with The New York Times. Democrats are also aiming to put more redistricting referendums on ballots in blue states.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were very limited in our ability to respond in this cycle because of constitutional constraints that exist in many Democratic-held states across the country,\u201d Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House minority leader, said in an interview on Friday. \u201cIn the next cycle, we will have several of those constraints removed in ways that will allow us to respond in an even more decisive and forceful fashion in advance of 2028.\u201d<\/p>\n
The most recent redistricting flurry began in late April, when the Supreme Court declared Louisiana\u2019s House map an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, prompting that Republican-led state and a few others to explore redistricting efforts that align with President Trump\u2019s vision of an aggressive cartographic push to retain power in the House.<\/p>\n
Then, on Friday, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down<\/a> that state\u2019s Democratic gerrymander, which voters had approved in a referendum on April 21. The ruling sparked a resolve among Democrats to be even more aggressive in planning a raft of future gerrymanders that won\u2019t affect the midterm landscape but could help the party in 2028.<\/p>\n Following the Supreme Court\u2019s ruling, Republicans across the South wasted little time trying to eliminate red-state Democratic congressional seats in time for this year\u2019s midterm elections. Tennessee has already passed a new map eliminating the lone Democratic district in the state. Louisiana delayed its primary to pass new maps that would eliminate at least one Democrat-leaning district there. Alabama is also fighting for a different map.<\/p>\n On Thursday, the lower chamber of the South Carolina legislature voted to consider redistricting and introduced a map<\/a> that would eliminate the only Democratic district in the state, that of Representative James E. Clyburn, who has held it for three decades. The State Senate has yet to vote on either measure.<\/p>\n The rapid escalation of Republican-led redistricting across the South has both unnerved and enraged Democrats. In several of those states, the party is seeking relief in court, but it has otherwise exhausted its redistricting options this year. Next year, however, Democratic officials said they plan to be every bit as ruthless with the maps they control as they say Republicans have been in this cycle.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a total reshift to the way congressional maps will be drawn in this country, and we should all acknowledge that now,\u201d said John Bisognano, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. \u201cIt could be a monumental change between 2026 and 2028.\u201d<\/p>\n Central to both parties\u2019 battle plans for the next phase of the redistricting wars will be building and maintaining the trifectas \u2014 total control of both chambers of a state legislature plus the governor\u2019s mansion \u2014 that are needed to enact partisan maps. This increased focus on state capitols will dramatically increase the stakes for usually sleepy legislative elections across the country.<\/p>\n \u201cAnyone who spent a second considering this decision knows it supercharges the power of states, and anyone who\u2019s surprised has been living in a cave,\u201d said Daniel Squadron, a co-founder of the States Project. \u201cWe can\u2019t stop the fallout by crossing our fingers and going back to court. We have to win power in state legislatures in November, full stop.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats hope a wave of backlash to Mr. Trump and his policies will win them full control of state governments in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They expect to place a redistricting measure on the ballot this fall in Colorado<\/a>, while the governors of Illinois, Maryland, New York and New Jersey have suggested they may try (or try again) to join the map-drawing fray next year.<\/p>\n No longer will states wait for new census data each decade to redraw their maps. Now, they plan to take every opportunity to eke out partisan advantage ahead of an election. And after the Supreme Court\u2019s ruling, which weakened a key tenet of the Voting Rights Act that historically had been used to protect minority representation, they are doing so with few legal guardrails in place to limit even the most brazen partisan gerrymandering.<\/p>\n Perhaps no state holds greater potential for a dramatic partisan swing in its congressional map than Wisconsin, a perpetual battleground state where Democrats are now eagerly eying the prospect of flipping a 6-to-2 Republican map on its head in time for 2028.<\/p>\n \u201cTempering our ambitions is not something we here at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin are known for,\u201d said Devin Remiker, the state party chairman, who believes a 6-2 Democratic map is doable. \u201cAim for the stars, land in the clouds.\u201d<\/p>\n A constellation of Democratic groups will gather this month to plan strategy and determine targets for this November\u2019s state legislative elections.<\/p>\n Leading the effort is House Majority PAC, the main House Democratic super PAC. The committee\u2019s president, Mike Smith, said Democratic organizations still believe their party will take control of the House, even with the Republican gerrymanders. Their hope, he said, is to create congressional maps that will allow them to hold that majority through the 2028 and 2030 elections.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are exploring every avenue to counter the Republican assault on voters across the South,\u201d Mr. Smith said. Plans include investing in Pennsylvania, Washington and Oregon, \u201cwhere winning additional seats in state legislatures can give us the opportunity to aggressively redraw those maps,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n