After disastrous elections for Labour in England, Scotland and Wales last week, the mood in Britain\u2019s governing party is so rebellious that calls are growing for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign.<\/p>\n
Mr. Starmer, who won a landslide victory in 2024, has not only rejected that idea from some in his party, but, in an interview with The Observer newspaper, also suggested he could stay in power for 10 years.<\/p>\n
In a speech scheduled for Monday, Mr. Starmer plans to outline how he hopes to revive the party\u2019s fortunes. \u201cPeople need hope,\u201d he will say, according to excerpts released by his office. \u201cWe will face up to the big challenges, and we will make the big arguments.\u201d<\/p>\n
One Labour lawmaker and former minister, Catherine West, has called on the cabinet to mount a putsch against the prime minister, warning that, if it fails to do so, she could attempt to trigger a leadership contest herself.<\/p>\n
Britain has changed its prime minister five times in a little more than a decade. Could it be about to happen again?<\/p>\n
What prompts a Labour challenge?<\/p>\n
The center-right Conservative Party has frequently replaced unpopular prime ministers, but it has rules different from those of the Labour Party, which has done this rarely. The last time was in 2007, when Tony Blair was forced out, but that was after he had been 10 years in Downing Street, and he ultimately agreed to step aside.<\/p>\n
To trigger an election to replace the prime minister under Labour\u2019s rules, a challenger would need the support of 81 Labour lawmakers, 20 percent of the total. Mr. Starmer would automatically be on the ballot, and the final decision would be taken by party members.<\/p>\n
Ms. West does not so far seem to have the numbers in Parliament and is not presenting herself as a credible alternative prime minister. Her idea appears to be to force the pace of change, either by prompting a cabinet rebellion or by flushing out other potential successors to Mr. Starmer and forcing them to make a run against him.<\/p>\n
But if neither of those two things happen, she seems willing to run as a so-called stalking horse candidate \u2014 if she can get enough support.<\/p>\n
Ms. West said that if the prime minister\u2019s speech on Monday is a disappointment, she will approach other Labour lawmakers to ask for their backing.<\/p>\n
Could Mr. Starmer survive?<\/p>\n
If the contest were against Ms. West, the cabinet remained loyal and credible contenders did not break cover, Mr. Starmer could expect to thwart the challenge.<\/p>\n
In 2016, Jeremy Corbyn, then leader of the then-opposition Labour Party, survived a leadership contest with Owen Smith, who moved against him after his party\u2019s lawmakers overwhelmingly backed a motion of no confidence in Mr. Corbyn.<\/p>\n
Confronted with internal feuding, a Conservative prime minister, John Major, precipitated a leadership election himself, in 1995, and won it.<\/p>\n
But facing any sort of contest risks denting a prime minister\u2019s authority. In 1989, the Conservative prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, was challenged by Anthony Meyer, a political figure so little known that he was derided as a \u201cstalking donkey.\u201d Mrs. Thatcher won, but one year later, she was forced out.<\/p>\n
Who are the realistic contenders?<\/p>\n
The political momentum is with Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, in northern England, and the only senior Labour figure who seems significantly more popular with voters than Mr. Starmer, according to opinion polls. The snag is that he would have to win a seat in Parliament before mounting a challenge.<\/p>\n