In the days before the latest flare-ups of violence in the Middle East, President Trump\u2019s aides were negotiating with Tehran on four major elements of a nuclear agreement that U.S. officials contend would grind the program to a halt for 15 years or so.<\/p>\n
The negotiations, according to U.S. officials and diplomats who have been briefed on the confidential talks, have gone considerably beyond discussion about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians have all but shut down for 101 days.<\/p>\n
The result is what American officials describe as the hazy outlines of an accord \u2014 assuming the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and hard-line Iranian politicians do not overrule Iran\u2019s chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, or torpedo the much more detailed talks that the United States has proposed to hold in Switzerland this summer.<\/p>\n
It is not clear whether talks will be set back by the latest developments, including Mr. Trump\u2019s statement on Tuesday that Iran had shot down an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States would have to respond.<\/p>\n
According to the officials and diplomats, here are the four major points of negotiation on a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran:<\/p>\n
1. A lengthy suspension of uranium enrichment<\/p>\n
The United States has demanded for months that Iran agree to conduct no uranium enrichment for at least 20 years. The Iranians have countered by offering a 10-year halt, but American officials believe they will settle for 15 years.<\/p>\n
Earlier in the conflict, Mr. Trump said a 20-year ban would be insufficient, but on Air Force One returning from China on May 15 he told reporters that he would accept it if it was a \u201creal 20 years.\u201d It is not clear whether he would accept 15 years.<\/p>\n
2. Iran\u2019s current stockpile of enriched uranium is diluted, or \u201cdownblended\u201d<\/p>\n
The United States would work with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. inspection body, to dilute, or \u201cdownblend,\u201d Iran\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium, according to two American officials familiar with the negotiations. American officials envision an active role in handling the nuclear material, something Iran has always forbidden. Iranian officials say the United States would serve only as an observer.<\/p>\n
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said repeatedly in recent weeks that any agreement would have to cover all 11 tons of enriched uranium in Iran\u2019s possession, not just the half-ton of near-bomb-grade fuel.<\/p>\n
The Iranians have not talked publicly about whether they are willing to give up their entire existing stockpile. But if it was downblended \u2014 rather than shipped outside the country \u2014 Iran\u2019s leaders could say they still have possession of the fuel. Mr. Trump hinted at this approach in an interview with NBC\u2019s \u201cMeet the Press\u201d over the weekend, saying, \u201cWe\u2019ll take it out and destroy it, whether it\u2019s on site or whether we take it off site.\u201d<\/p>\n
3. Iran dismantles its nuclear sites<\/p>\n
The United States has demanded that Iran dismantle its three major nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. The United States struck all three in Operation Midnight Hammer nearly a year ago, severely damaging them. Iran has discussed dismantling two facilities but insists on leaving one open, in part to demonstrate it has not surrendered what it views as a \u201cright to enrich.\u201d<\/p>\n
That could prove problematic: Critics of the Obama-era agreement focused on his failure to close down Fordo, a deep underground site, which the Iranians later revived to produce near-bomb-grade fuel. Leaving one facility open would pose a similar problem unless operations are above ground, so it could be easily struck if Iran began working on weapons. Iran\u2019s response is unclear.<\/p>\n
4. Iran agrees to \u201csnap\u201d inspections<\/p>\n
The United States wants international inspectors to be able to conduct \u201csnap\u201d inspections, anytime and anyplace inside Iran. It is not clear if the Iranian government will agree. As a practical matter, many of the suspect nuclear sites are inside Revolutionary Guards military bases, where inspectors have frequently been barred at the gates.<\/p>\n
If Iran agreed to the four limits on the nuclear program, it would mark a significant advance over some of the concessions extracted from Tehran in the 2015 negotiations.<\/p>\n
At least, it would be an advance on paper. But the accord would rely on Iranian cooperation at every stage: in guiding international inspectors and Western equipment to the nuclear site at Isfahan, where most of Iran\u2019s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium is believed to be stored, deep underground, and in allowing inspectors into every suspected nuclear site in the country.<\/p>\n
The discussions are at a precarious state. Iran and Israel<\/a> exchanged fire on Sunday and Monday, and Mr. Trump said a U.S. Army Apache helicopter gunship was shot down off the coast of Oman on Monday. (The crew was rescued.)<\/p>\n But a trip that Steve Witkoff, the president\u2019s special envoy, and his negotiating partner, Jared Kushner, took to the top-secret American nuclear lab at Oak Ridge, Tenn., last week was evidence that the United States is already preparing for how it would deal with Iran\u2019s stockpile of 11 tons of enriched uranium, if a final deal was reached.<\/p>\n The negotiations have churned along far more slowly than Mr. Trump hoped. Several times in recent weeks, administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have predicted an accord was just days away. But something always got in the way, from strikes in the region that strained the cease-fire to the insistence of Iran\u2019s generals that the United States had to show its seriousness by first releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump also added new demands more than a week ago, and the Iranians have sailed past deadlines he set for a response, saying they were still debating the issues internally.<\/p>\n Like the Obama plan 11 years ago, the Trump offers are based on a bet that Iran\u2019s economic interests \u2014 in ending the American blockade of Iranian shipments, unfreezing $25 billion in assets and allowing Iran to sell oil around the world \u2014 will prevail in the country\u2019s internal debates. But history suggests many Iranian generals and politicians consider opposition to the United States to be at the core of the Iranian revolution, no matter the economic cost.<\/p>\n Now, the question is whether the recent talks can survive the brief but fierce revival of combat operations, the largest breach yet of a two-month cease-fire \u2014 and the possibility of more.<\/p>\n