El Ni\u00f1o has officially arrived, the National Weather Service declared Thursday, bringing with it a greater chance of lots of rain in Southern California this winter. <\/p>\n
The climate pattern developed over the last month and is expected to continue to strengthen, with the weather service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center assessing a 63% chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o later this year that would rank among the most powerful on record since 1950.<\/p>\n
A very strong El Ni\u00f1o \u201cmore significantly tilts the odds towards wetter-than-normal conditions here in Southern California,\u201d Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist at the weather service\u2019s Oxnard office, said during a briefing Thursday at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach.<\/p>\n
Oceanic conditions have rapidly changed in recent months, giving scientists greater confidence of a strong or very strong El Ni\u00f1o later this year \u2014 particularly from November through January. Among them are temperatures increasing deep beneath the ocean\u2019s surface, as warmer water from the western Pacific Ocean moves east. <\/p>\n
Those deeper, warmer waters \u201care the fuel, if you will, for the development and strengthening of the upcoming El Ni\u00f1o event,\u201d which is one reason why scientists are expecting \u201cpotentially a strong-to-very-strong\u201d event, Jon Gottschalck, the Climate Prediction Center\u2019s operational prediction branch chief, said in an interview. <\/p>\n
For Southern California, that could mean rain \u2014 and lots of it. <\/p>\n
Two previous \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os \u2014 in 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 deluged downtown Los Angeles with over 30 inches of rain, more than double the area\u2019s average annual rainfall. <\/p>\n
During the winter of 1982-83, damage was particularly severe along the coast as high tides surged amid powerful storms. About $100 million in damage was reported. In early 1998, storms brought widespread flooding and mudslides, causing 17 deaths and more than half a billion dollars in damage in California.<\/p>\n
Another \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o that was recently upgraded by scientists \u2014 1991-92 \u2014 brought 20.86 inches of rain, or about 150% of its average annual total, to downtown L.A. <\/p>\n
The most recent El Ni\u00f1o of 2023-24, recently recategorized as being of \u201cmoderate\u201d strength, also coincided with a pretty wet year<\/a> for Southern California, with downtown L.A. receiving 155% of its typical annual rainfall. That February, there was record precipitation and a memorable five straight days of rain<\/a> that triggered hundreds of mudslides in L.A. alone. Dozens of homes and buildings were damaged by debris flow, including 15 homes that were red-tagged.<\/p>\n Powerful El Ni\u00f1os don\u2019t always mean heavy rain, but they can wreak havoc in other ways. The \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o of 2015-16 actually brought downtown L.A. only about half its annual rainfall \u2014 with just 6.88 inches falling \u2014 and failed to snap California out of a punishing five-year drought<\/a>. Still, that year saw \u201crecord coastal erosion along many California beaches,\u201d according to the state Coastal Commission.<\/p>\n \u201cEven if we end up with a much drier winter, for instance, those with marine interests and along the coast can experience … damaging waves, as well as rip currents,\u201d Cohen said. <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth, capable of reshaping global weather and affecting rainfall and drought, according to<\/a> the World Meteorological Organization. It typically hits every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.<\/p>\n \u201cHaving a stronger, very strong El Ni\u00f1o certainly tips the scale toward a wetter-than-normal year, but it doesn\u2019t guarantee it,\u201d said meteorologist Jan Null, an adjunct professor at San Jos\u00e9 State University. It means there probably will be more rain, but \u201cit doesn\u2019t necessarily mean more flooding.\u201d <\/p>\n Warming ocean temperatures \u2014 such as those seen during El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 also can have an array of effects on sea life.<\/p>\n That includes the potential for more sharks.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the near future, we may expect to see an increase in tropical or warm subtropical species, which may include increased shark sightings off of Southern California coast,\u201d said Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific\u2019s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates. \u201cIn very rare cases, even whale sharks have visited off Catalina, including in the 2015-2016 El Ni\u00f1o events.\u201d<\/p>\n Warmer ocean temperatures can also increase the presence of sea jellies<\/a> and other gelatinous creatures, Jaros said. <\/p>\n A jellyfish-like creature called Velella velella, also known as by-the-wind sailors<\/a>, can wash up on West Coast shores and are usually harmless to people. However, \u201cin past El Ni\u00f1o events, we\u2019ve seen similar-looking Portuguese man o\u2019 war, a very rare visitor to our waters, washing up on our beaches. These animals can have a very painful sting,\u201d Jaros said. <\/p>\n Marine heat waves also have decimated California\u2019s kelp, \u201cwith bull kelp habitats declining 90% in Northern California since 2014,\u201d Jaros said. <\/p>\n \u201cThe effects of this decline trickle down to other species, including endangered white abalone<\/a>. And warmer waters can exacerbate the effects of sea star wasting disease<\/a>, especially on the sunflower sea star, a population that\u2019s nearly been wiped out of California,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n Marine heat waves can be fatal for seabirds, which may starve if their food disappears, said Brett Long, the aquarium\u2019s vice president of animal care for birds and marine mammals. <\/p>\n