{"id":4202,"date":"2026-03-12T19:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/4202\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T19:19:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:19:15","slug":"final-2026-picks-in-24-categories","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/4202\/","title":{"rendered":"Final 2026 Picks in 24 Categories"},"content":{"rendered":"

This has been a long-ass Oscar season<\/a>. You can blame the Olympics and last weekend\u2019s Los Angeles Marathon, which featured a runner whizzing across the finish line at the last minute past the stumbling frontrunner. The good news about the prolonged awards<\/a> season: We have an Oscar race<\/a>. The usual snowball effect that makes voters pile on consensus choices has not taken hold of the major categories this year, except for Best Actress leader Jessie Buckley, likely the only win from eight nominations for \u201cHamnet.\u201d<\/p>\n

The long season had another effect: It allowed frontrunners like Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another<\/a>\u201d to peak and possibly slack before the voting ended on March 5. \u201cOne Battle\u201d dominated the precursor awards (Critics Choice, Golden Globes, WGA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA), and looked like a sure thing until Ryan Coogler\u2019s \u201cSinners<\/a>\u201d capped the Actor Awards with two big wins for Michael B. Jordan and Ensemble right smack in the middle of Oscar voting. The house went wild, much as they did when Bong Joon Ho\u2019s \u201cParasite\u201d won Ensemble and surged to the Oscars<\/a> with four wins, including Best Picture and Director; it was expected to win International Feature and Original Screenplay, at best.<\/p>\n

\"KPOP<\/a> \"NEW<\/a> <\/p>\n

Suddenly, the odds at Gold Derby flipped in several categories. Back-to-back wins for Sean Penn at the BAFTAs, where he beat Globe-winner Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd\u00a0(\u201cSentimental Value\u201d), and the more American-leaning Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Actor Awards (which didn\u2019t nominate \u201cSentimental Value\u201d at all), pushed him into the lead. The BAFTAs reveal where the foreign Oscar vote is leaning, representing 24 percent of the Academy. (At the Oscars, the Norwegian entry earned nine nominations, including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, International, and four actors.) Also pushed into serious contention were SAG winner Jordan and \u201cSinners,\u201d which, as of March 11, is favored to beat \u201cOne Battle\u201d for Best Picture. Gold Derby voters don\u2019t know everything. But the consensus has moved toward \u201cSinners.\u201d Was that true at the close of voting on March 5? Stay tuned for the showdown on March 15.<\/p>\n

The big questions heading into the Oscars: Will voters make Coogler the first Black director to win an Oscar after 97 years? They might. Will they make Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first woman to win Best Cinematography? They might. But the stats favor respected auteur PTA, who has 14 nominations but has never won, and \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d director of photography Michael Bauman (winner at BAFTA, BSC, and ASC). But in this year\u2019s random sampling of anonymous ballots<\/a> across various media, many voters are going with \u201cSinners\u201d in multiple categories because they want to support it. <\/p>\n

In a year that will deliver quite a few surprises on Oscar night \u2014 and no matter what will make \u201cOne Battle\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d studio Warner Bros. jump for joy \u2014 I predict that \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d with 13 nominations, will win six, including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Editing. The period horror-musical \u201dSinners,\u201d with a record 16 nominations, will likely win four (Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Score), and Guillermo del Toro\u2019s \u201cFrankenstein,\u201d with nine noms, could take three (Costume and Production Design and Makeup & Hairstyling). But while the crafts awards often mirror the BAFTAs, many folks could give individual categories to \u201cSinners.\u201d So its Oscar count could rise.<\/p>\n

Two Best Picture foreign-language films are duking it out for International Feature: \u201cSentimental Value\u201d and \u201cThe Secret Agent.\u201d The good news: They both deserve to win. It\u2019s a strong category. Even Netflix, which often does better with nominations than wins, can go into this Oscar show knowing they have two Oscars in the bag: \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d should win Animated Feature and Best Song (\u201cGolden\u201d). The Oscar show <\/a>is favoring the hugely popular \u201cKPop\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d with big-scale musical numbers<\/a> celebrating both movies.<\/p>\n

My final list of 24 Oscar picks and spoilers is below.<\/p>\n

\"RenateRenate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at the \u2018Sentimental Value\u2019 Premiere during The 78th Cannes Film<\/a> Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 21, 2025 in Cannes, FranceMichael Buckner\/Variety<\/p>\n

Best Picture:\u00a0\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line: In one of the closest battles in recent memory, this could go either way. It\u2019s tough to call. Anderson is the great strength behind \u201cOne Battle.\u201d Both films appeal to a wide swath of Academy voters, including the mainstream male voters known as the steakeaters, and \u201cOne Battle\u201d winning the BAFTAs is a sign of international strength. \u201cSinners\u201d is surging in popularity, but its horror elements turn off some folks.<\/p>\n

Best Director:\u00a0Paul Thomas Anderson (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Ryan Coogler (\u201cSinners\u201d)
Bottom Line: This will likely go to the oft-nominated Anderson, but the chance to make history with the first Black director Oscar winner could prove irresistible. <\/p>\n

Best Actor:\u00a0Michael B.Jordan (\u201cSinners\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet <\/a>(\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d)
Bottom Line:\u00a0At the beginning, the Best Actor Oscar looked like Chalamet\u2019s to lose, as the now-30-year-old followed up last year\u2019s \u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d loss with a likely win. He earned rave reviews and won the Comedy Globe and Critics Choice Awards. But his swift pivot from channeling his driven Marty Supreme character to market the picture to his dark-suited Oscar-campaign persona reeked of inauthenticity, and he kept saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. He lost the BAFTA to a local unknown (\u201cI Swear\u201d star Robert Aramayo) as well as the Actor Award, which went to Jordan. And whatever happens in other categories, many voters will funnel their \u201cSinners\u201d love into this vote and could award the man who played twins his first gold statuette.<\/p>\n

Best Actress:\u00a0Jessie Buckley (\u201cHamnet\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Rose Byrne (\u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u201d)
Bottom Line:\u00a0Irish actress Buckley has swept the precursors for her earthy, no-holds-barred performance as a woman in love with William Shakespeare who grieves the loss of her son \u2014 and the absence of her playwright husband (Paul Mescal). She will take home the Oscar. (Luckily, her \u201cHamnet\u201d follow-up \u201cThe Bride!\u201d <\/a>opened after voters filed their ballots.) Byrne is a favorite among many voters for her equally intense version of a mother falling apart.<\/p>\n

\"JessieJessie Buckley at the 2026 EE BAFTA Film Awards held at The Royal Festival Hall on February 22, 2026 in London, England.James McCauley\/Variety<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actor:\u00a0Sean Penn (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d)
Spoilers:\u00a0Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd <\/a>(\u201cSentimental Value\u201d) and Delroy Lindo (\u201cSinners\u201d)
Bottom Line: This is the toughest category to call. Penn beat Skarsg\u00e5rd on European turf at the BAFTAs, which suggests Penn, 65, has the international vote, and his win at the Actors Awards gives him the Americans as well. Colonel Lockjaw is an unforgettable character rife with conflict and vulnerability. As so often happens, even if many folks in Hollywood dislike the guy, and Penn has already won two Oscars, big and brash often beats quiet and precise. But Skarsg\u00e5rd, 74, is well-liked across many films over the years, from Lars von Trier\u2019s \u2018Breaking the Waves\u201d to \u201cDune.\u201d A third possibility: another overdue actor, Spike Lee regular Delroy Lindo, 73, could ride the \u201cSinners\u201d train to a win. He was robbed for \u201cDa 5 Bloods.\u201d <\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actress:\u00a0Amy Madigan <\/a>(\u201cWeapons\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Wunmi Mosaku <\/a>(\u201cSinners\u201d)
Bottom Line:\u00a0Madigan, 75, hasn\u2019t been on the Oscar stage for 40 years (\u201cTwice in a Lifetime\u201d). She\u2019s well-known and respected, along with her husband, Ed Harris. She knocked Aunt Gladys out of the park in smart horror flick \u201cWeapons,\u201d even though most viewers had no idea who she was through her crazy makeup. And there are questions about who has actually seen the movie. Mosaku is a BAFTA-winning TV and movie actress who moved from London to Los Angeles to join her eventual husband. She works constantly and provides the beating heart for \u201cSinners\u201d as the hoodoo-practicing wife of Smoke (Jordan). Again, a \u201cSinners\u201d surge could lift many boats.<\/p>\n

\"AmyAmy Madigan at the 2026 Film Independent Spirit Awards held at the Hollywood Palladium on February 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.Michael Buckner\/Variety<\/p>\n

Best Adapted Screenplay:\u00a0Paul Thomas Anderson (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Chloe Zhao and Maggie O\u2019Farrell (\u201cHamnet\u201d)
Bottom Line: This WGA-winner is PTA\u2019s to lose and is a sure bet. Even if the movie bears little resemblance to Thomas Pynchon\u2019s \u201cVineland.\u201d<\/p>\n

Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler (\u201cSinners\u201d)
Spoiler:\u00a0Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (\u201cSentimental Value\u201d)
Bottom Line: This WGA-winner is Coogler\u2019s to lose and is a sure bet.<\/p>\n

Best Animated Feature:\u00a0\u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cZootopia 2\u2033
Bottom Line:\u00a0This Korean-American culture phenomenon will not be denied. BAFTA winner \u201cZootopia 2\u201d will likely have to settle for box office glory ($1.86 billion and counting). <\/p>\n

Best Animated Short:\u00a0\u201cButterfly\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cThe Girl Who Cried Pearls\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0 It\u2019s tough to call these categories. Usually, the emotional heart-tugger wins. Both of these shorts qualify.<\/p>\n

Best Casting: \u201cSinners\u201d
Spoiler: \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Bottom Line: Francine Maisler is well-respected and marks an easy win for the sprawling and eclectic cast of \u201cSinners.\u201d But \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d conjured up some unexpected faces, from Goop CEO Gwyneth Paltrow and director Abel Ferrara to \u201cShark Tank\u201d mogul Kevin O\u2019Leary.<\/p>\n

Best Cinematography:\u00a0\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0It could go either way. Follow the precursors, and Michael Bauman wins. Follow the \u201cSinners\u201d love, and it goes to the category\u2019s first woman, Autumn Durald Arkapaw.<\/p>\n

Best Costume Design:\u00a0\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line: For this lavish period drama, Kate Hawley wove her own shimmering fabrics. But voters could also reward two-time Oscar-winner Ruth Carter (both \u201cBlack Panther\u201d movies) for her 30s \u201cSinners\u201d designs. <\/p>\n

\"FRANKENSTEIN,\u2018Frankenstein\u2019\u00a9Netflix\/Courtesy Everett Collection<\/p>\n

Best Documentary Feature:\u00a0\u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cMr. Nobody Against Putin\u201d
Bottom Line: Many enjoyed the true-crime aspects of Netflix\u2019s multi-award-winning Sundance pick-up \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor,\u201d but, finally, director Geeta Gandbhir is admired for how she organized this sprawling narrative from police cam footage to reveal the limitations of our justice system. A charming Russian videographer resisted the increased militarism of his school in \u201cMr. Nobody Against Putin,\u201d which won the BAFTA, a reminder that the foreign vote is key in this group.<\/p>\n

Best Documentary Short:\u00a0\u201cThe Devil is Busy\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cAll the Empty Rooms\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0Gandbhir was a co-director on moving observational diary \u201cThe Devil is Busy,\u201d which chronicles a day at an abortion center from several points of view. \u201cAll the Empty Rooms\u201d follows an indefatigable journalist who tracks school shootings and takes cameras inside the ghostly preserved rooms of some of the children lost.<\/p>\n

Best Editing:\u00a0\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0If \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and its rolling hills don\u2019t win this category at the start of the night, it could go the way of \u201cSinners\u201d after that. That film is all about the dreamy juke-joint musical sequence that blends eras and cultures.<\/p>\n

Best International Feature Film:\u00a0\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0Norway\u2019s entry won second place at Cannes; the father-daughter show-business drama shows its strength with nine nominations. Even Elle Fanning landed one of four acting nods. The thoughtful, politically timely \u201970s-set Cannes Best Actor winner \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d scored Picture, Casting, Actor (Wagner Moura), and International noms.<\/p>\n

\"KleberKleber Mendon\u00e7a Filho and Wagner Moura pose during the \u2018The Secret Agent\u2019 photocall at the 78th annual Cannes Film FestivalPascal Le Segretain\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Best Live Action Short:\u00a0\u201cThe Singers\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0One sings, the other doesn\u2019t. Netflix is pushing \u201cThe Singers,\u201d a moving display of unexpected musical prowess, while France\u2019s chilly black-and-white \u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva\u201d is a sophisticated mind-game. <\/p>\n

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:\u00a0\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line: If this doesn\u2019t go to Del Toro\u2019s monster movie \u2014 which slapped Jacob Elordi in the makeup chair for 10 hours before he started acting \u2014 something is very wrong. On the other hand, \u201cSinners\u201d also executed on a large scale, from exploding music to manic vampires. <\/p>\n

Best Production Design:\u00a0\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0This category could switch from one elaborate period piece to another if \u201cSinners\u201d runs away with votes. <\/p>\n

Best Original Score:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Bottom Line: Ludwig G\u00f6ransson should win his third Oscar (\u201cBlack Panther,\u201d \u201cOppenheimer\u201d) for this tour-de-force score that brings musical history to life. Ordinarily, three-time nominee Jonny Greenwood\u2019s percussive piano score for \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d would be a slam-dunk for a win.<\/p>\n

Best Original Song:\u00a0\u201cGolden\u201d from \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cI Lied to You\u201d from \u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0Cultural crossover phenomenon \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d is so huge that it\u2019s hard to imagine Oscar voters not rewarding \u201cGolden,\u201d which won Best Song Written for Visual Media at the Grammys, Best Original Song at the Golden Globes, and the Hollywood Music in Media Awards. On the other hand, the \u201cSinners\u201d coattails could extend to this category with \u201cI Lied to You.\u201d<\/p>\n

Best Sound:\u00a0\u201cF1\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0This year, the biggest noisiest sound \u2014 \u201cF1\u201d \u2014 should take the win. But in a category that has gone to \u201cSound of Metal,\u201d \u201cWhiplash,\u201d and even German-language \u201cThe Zone of Interest\u201d in the past, the complex musical sound design of \u201cSinners\u201d or \u201cSir\u0101t\u201d\u00a0could sneak into contention. \u201cF1\u201d won the BAFTA and the Cinema Audio Society, while \u201cSinners\u201d won the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE).<\/p>\n

Best Visual Effects:\u00a0\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d
Spoiler:\u00a0\u201cSinners\u201d
Bottom Line:\u00a0James Cameron won four craft nominations for \u201cAvatar: The Way of Water\u201d and won VFX, while this year it was two nods and a likely VFX win. But voters could favor the Best Picture contender here: \u201cSinners.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the real bottom line? Watch out for \u201cSinners.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This has been a long-ass Oscar season. You can blame the Olympics and last weekend\u2019s Los Angeles Marathon,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4203,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[3477,3300,8,9,3478,3479,3296,3480,7],"class_list":{"0":"post-4202","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-stories","8":"tag-awards","9":"tag-film","10":"tag-headlines","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-one-battle-after-another","13":"tag-oscar-predictions","14":"tag-oscars","15":"tag-sinners","16":"tag-top-stories"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@news\/116217824121420077","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4202\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4203"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}