Despite a long, entrenched Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state\u2019s 2026 race for governor as the June primary election fast approaches.<\/p>\n
The confounding results appear to be mostly due to the state\u2019s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California\u2019s top-two primary rule, that lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of a November election that will determine the next leader of the largest state in the union, though that is still considered unlikely.<\/p>\n
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17% of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the backing of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley\u2019s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.<\/p>\n
Following closely behind were Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom had support from 13% of the likely voters surveyed. Aside from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who registered at 10% support after plowing tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, no other Democrat had won support from more than 5% of likely voters, the poll showed. <\/p>\n
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, said he was stunned by how fractured voters are and how little knowledge they have about the candidates less than 60 days before ballots start arriving in Californians\u2019 mailboxes.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is historic for me, and especially given that none of the candidates have really a positive image rating with voters, also startling. I mean, perhaps one of the reasons why voters are disengaged, they\u2019re just not enthusiastic about any of the candidates,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re kind of sleepwalking to this election.\u201d<\/p>\n
Swalwell and Porter both hew toward the progressive wing of the party and rose to national prominence as frequent guests on cable news shows and as combative, at times theatrical, committee members during congressional oversight hearings. That notoriety prompted attacks from Republicans and the far right and increased their popularity among the Democratic base \u2014 both pivotal for voters seeking a strong candidate to challenge President Trump.<\/p>\n
Porter slightly rebounded after a dip in polling in the fall after videos emerged of her berating an aide and a reporter. She also has the highest favorable rating of any candidate in the field at 34%.<\/p>\n
According to the survey, Steyer\u2019s support from likely voters increased to 10% from just 1% in Berkeley\u2019s October poll. The momentum comes after Steyer spent about $50 million airing television ads<\/a> since December, according to an analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly.<\/p>\n Among the other top Democrats in the race: former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was backed by 5% of likely voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jos\u00e9 Mayor Matt Mahan by 4%, and former state Controller Betty Yee and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond by 1%. <\/p>\n The poll found that 16% of likely voters were either undecided or backed other, lesser-known candidates.<\/p>\n The splintered support for the Democrats hoping to become the state\u2019s next governor has surfaced in other ways as well. On Monday, the powerful California Federation of Labor voted to endorse four gubernatorial candidates \u2014 half the Democratic field.<\/p>\n DiCamillo said he believes the poll\u2019s inclusion of the candidates\u2019 titles that voters will see on their ballots is crucial in a low-information contest.<\/p>\n \u201cThat really matters in a race where voters don\u2019t have much information, or they say they don\u2019t know much about the candidates,\u201d he said, adding that it could particularly help Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff. \u201cHis job title is kind of impressive, and that voters think, well, that\u2019s credible, so let me consider him.\u201d<\/p>\n The fear of two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June 2 primary prompted California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to urge low-polling candidates to consider their viability and drop out if they didn\u2019t see a path forward<\/a> earlier this month. <\/p>\n