TIER 1: SKIP WORK, YOUR BOSS WILL UNDERSTAND\u00a0<\/p>\n
1. Kentucky (7) vs. Santa Clara (10) \u2014 Friday, 12:15 p.m. (CBS)<\/p>\n
A Santa Clara vs. Kentucky first-round matchup epitomizes everything that we love about the NCAA tournament. This is an evenly matched game pitting a deep-pocketed blue blood with a reported $22 million roster against a true mid-major dancing for the first time since 1996.<\/p>\n
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There may not be a Steve Nash on this year\u2019s Santa Clara\u2019s team, but the Broncos boast high-major size and talent up and down the roster. Sixth man Allen Graves will be one of the most coveted players in the transfer portal this spring should he decide to enter it. Fellow reserve Thierry Darlan spent the past two seasons in the G League.<\/p>\n
Santa Clara attempts a lot of 3s, gobbles up offensive rebounds and forces turnovers with its aggressive, full-court defense. The Broncos lost all three of their matchups against Gonzaga this season but earned an at-large bid anyway by beating the likes of Xavier, Minnesota, Nevada and McNeese and taking two of three from Saint Mary\u2019s.<\/p>\n
One concern for Santa Clara is how it will deal with an early tip-off time Friday in Saint Louis. The Broncos should pose a challenge for Kentucky provided they can adjust to playing at the equivalent of 9:15 a.m. PST.<\/p>\n
TIER 2: FAVORITES ON UPSET WATCH<\/p>\n
2. St. John\u2019s (5) vs. Northern Iowa (12) \u2014 Friday, 7:10 p.m. (CBS)<\/p>\n
Northern Iowa entered the season with high expectations after winning 20 games the previous season and bringing back players who logged a national-best 72.1% of the minutes. The Panthers also welcomed NAIA first-team All-American Tristan Smith, a forward who averaged 20.5 points for Concordia University, Nebraska, and led the team in just about every other statistical category as well.<\/p>\n
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The season didn\u2019t always go as planned. Northern Iowa lost six of seven during one dreadful January stretch that coincided with an injury that sidelined Smith for nearly a month. But when the versatile Smith was healthy enough to play, the Panthers went 21-6. They\u2019ve been the No. 41 team in the country since Smith\u2019s Feb. 6 return from injury, according to Bart Torvik\u2019s T-Rankings.<\/p>\n
What makes Northern Iowa a scary draw for St. John\u2019s is more than just its history of pulling NCAA tournament upsets. The Panthers play at the third-slowest pace in the country. They\u2019ll turn their matchup with St. John\u2019s into a half-court slog and force the Johnnies to shoot over the top of their set defense.<\/p>\n
Northern Iowa is going to put St. John\u2019s through hell on Friday night. Can the Big East regular-season and tournament champs force enough turnovers and dominate the glass enough to survive?<\/p>\n
![\"MILWAUKEE,](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/d8544ac9-7f1b-4f66-9ca6-d57fb72a9098.jpeg\"\/)
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Does Rick Pitino need to worry about St. John’s losing in the first round as a No. 2 seed? (Patrick McDermott\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n
(Patrick McDermott via Getty Images)<\/p>\n
3. North Carolina (6) vs. VCU (11) \u2014 Thursday, 6:50 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n
North Carolina is very beatable without a healthy Caleb Wilson drawing extra defenders to the paint, creating extra possessions on the offensive glass and altering opposing shots at the rim. When the projected lottery pick was on the floor, North Carolina outscored opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions this season, according to CBB Analytics. That gap shrank to 7.6 points per 100 possessions when Wilson wasn\u2019t playing.<\/p>\n
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The first-round opponent drawn by North Carolina is capable of seizing this opportunity. VCU has won 16 of its past 17 games. The Rams were the best team in the Atlantic 10 by the end of the season.<\/p>\n
4. Wisconsin (5) vs. High Point (12) \u2014 Thursday, 1:50 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n
Since Wisconsin takes a staggering 52.6% of its shots from behind the arc and doesn\u2019t rebound many of its misses, the high-variance Badgers are one of the most unpredictable teams in this year\u2019s NCAA tournament. They have toppled the likes of Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State already this season, but they have also mixed in some duds when their shots weren\u2019t falling.<\/p>\n
High Point is talented enough to put a scare into Wisconsin if the high-scoring, fast-paced Panthers catch the Badgers on an off night. This is a team that has won at least 27 games each of the past three seasons, thanks in part to a budget that far exceeds that of a typical Big South program. Its second- and third-leading scorers, Rob Martin and Cam\u2019Ron Fletcher, are players that power-conference programs sought in the transfer portal last spring.<\/p>\n
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One concern for High Point is that its knack for forcing turnovers may not bother Wisconsin\u2019s experienced backcourt of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. The Badgers are third nationally in limiting turnovers. They won\u2019t give the ball away.<\/p>\n
5. Louisville (6) vs. South Florida (11) \u2014 Thursday, 1:30 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n
Louisville was already on upset alert even before it ruled out star freshman Mikel Brown for at least the opening two games of the NCAA tournament. That announcement should only increase support for a 25-win South Florida team that last lost in late January.<\/p>\n
Brown has missed 12 games this season with a lingering back injury. When Brown has been healthy enough to play, he has performed like a projected first-round pick. He\u2019s averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists for a Louisville team that is 16-5 in games he has played and 7-5 when he has sat out.<\/p>\n
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[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes<\/a>]<\/p>\n 6. BYU (6) vs. Texas (11) \u2014 Thursday, 7:25 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n Can BYU\u2019s AJ Dybantsa bolster his case to go No. 1 overall in this year\u2019s NBA Draft by carrying the Cougars deep into the NCAA tournament? That will be the primary storyline ahead of his March Madness debut against Texas.<\/p>\n Season-ending ACL tears suffered by glue guy Dawson Baker in late November and all-Big 12 guard Richie Saunders in mid-February contributed to BYU not meeting preseason expectations.\u00a0 A regular season that began with talk of BYU making the Final Four for the first time in program history ended with the Cougars settling for the 10th seed in the Big 12 tournament.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Dybantsa helped BYU regain its footing in the Big 12 tournament. He piled up a tournament-record 93 points in wins over Kansas State and West Virginia and a narrow loss to Houston.<\/p>\n AJ Dybantsa has taken over for BYU late in the season after injuries to several other Cougars. (Jamie Squire\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n (Jamie Squire via Getty Images)<\/p>\n 7. Alabama (4) vs. Hofstra (13) \u2014 Friday, 3:15 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n The morning after Selection Sunday, Alabama\u2019s second-leading scorer was arrested on felony drug charges. The university removed guard Aden Holloway from campus pending an investigation<\/a> after agents from the West Alabama Narcotics Task Force found more than two pounds of marijuana in his possession.<\/p>\n How will Alabama handle the distraction? Or the absence of a playmaking guard who averages 16.8 points and shoots 44% from behind the arc? The Tide better be ready on Friday because Hofstra is a feisty 13 seed. The Pride have won 12 of 13. They play a slow, grinding style that could frustrate fast-paced Alabama and they have an array of shooters who can get hot from behind the arc.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 8. Texas Tech (5) vs. Akron (12) \u2014 Friday, 12:40 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n Texas Tech became vulnerable to an upset last month when All-American JT Toppin went down with a torn ACL. The Red Raiders played with something to prove after Toppin\u2019s injury, ripping off three straight wins, including a rare road victory at Iowa State. Cracks have shown since then as Texas Tech has dropped three in a row and has struggled to replace Toppin\u2019s defensive rebounding and rim protection as a small-ball center.<\/p>\n Could Akron take advantage? With all due respect to Miami (Ohio), the Zips have been the best team in the MAC this season. They have a standout guard in Tavari Johnson and plenty of shooting surrounding him, but they\u2019ve yet to actually beat an opponent all season better than Kent State or Toledo.<\/p>\n TIER 3: HISTORY FOR THE HUSKERS?\u00a0<\/p>\n 9. Nebraska (4) vs. Troy (13) \u2014 Thursday, 12:40 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n Nebraska is famously the only power-conference team never to experience the joy of winning an NCAA tournament game. Only eight times have the Huskers even secured a spot in March Madness. Each time, they\u2019ve failed to advance. They\u2019ve lost as favorites and as underdogs, by margins as small as five points and as large as 21.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n This was supposed to be another dismal season for a Nebraska team projected to finish 14th in the Big Ten, but the Huskers have exceeded even the most pie-in-the-sky expectations. Led by skilled center Rienk Mast, sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort and defensive menace Sam Hoiberg, they got off to a 20-0 start, finished tied for second in the Big Ten and earned the program\u2019s second-best NCAA tournament seed.<\/p>\n Surely this has to be the year Nebraska ends its drought, right? Maybe. Troy won at San Diego State, beat Akron by 10 and pushed USC to triple-overtime this season. The Trojans play at a glacial pace, hoist plenty of 3s and rebound their misses well enough to take advantage of Nebraska\u2019s biggest weakness. In short, they are not pushovers.<\/p>\n TIER 4: UPSET PICKS TO AVOID<\/p>\n 10. Vanderbilt (5) vs. McNeese (12) \u2014 Thursday, 3:15 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n People in your bracket pools will want to pick McNeese because the Cowboys sprung an upset last season and followed that by winning 28 games this year. Exercise caution!<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n McNeese wins because its swarming, disruptive defense is No. 1 nationally in forcing turnovers and No. 4 in block rate. But Vanderbilt is not the sort of team that is likely to struggle against aggressive full-court pressure. The Commodores are 11th nationally in turnover rate and are loaded with skilled passers and ball handlers.<\/p>\n 11. Tennessee (6) vs. SMU\/Miami Ohio (11) \u2014 Friday, 4:25 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n How intriguing this game is depends on whether Miami (Ohio) wins Wednesday\u2019s play-in game or not. If this is Vols-RedHawks, it\u2019s a fascinating matchup between an SEC power and a true mid-major punching above its weight class. If it\u2019s Tennessee against an SMU team that collapsed late in the season and was lucky to make the NCAA tournament, well \u2026 zzzzz.<\/p>\n [Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes<\/a>]<\/p>\n TIER 5: COIN-TOSS GAMES THAT WILL MESS UP YOUR BRACKET<\/p>\n 12. Miami Florida (7) vs. Missouri (10) \u2014 Friday, 10:10 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n Jai Lucas produced an encouraging debut season, leading Miami to a third-place finish in the ACC behind the nucleus of freshman Shelton Henderson, Michigan transfer Tre Donaldson and Indiana transfer Malik Reneau. A win over Missouri would earn the Hurricanes a potential crack at second-seeded Purdue.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 13. Ohio State (8) vs. TCU (9) \u2014 Thursday, 12:15 p.m. (CBS)<\/p>\n This is a matchup of white-hot teams who played themselves off the bubble and into single-digit seeds. Ohio State senior guard Bruce Thornton averages 20.2 points per game, but TCU is likely to try to blitz ball screens and force someone else to carry the scoring load.<\/p>\n 14. Villanova (8) vs. Utah State (9) \u2014 Friday, 4:10 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n Jerrod Calhoun called Utah State\u2019s seeding \u201cabsolutely atrocious\u201d after the committee gave the Mountain West champs a No. 9 rather than a No. 6 or 7. Now the Aggies will have the chance to prove they were underseeded when they take on a Villanova team that finished third in the Big East in Kevin Willard\u2019s debut season.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 15. Georgia (8) vs. Saint Louis (9) \u2014 Thursday, 9:45 p.m. (CBS)<\/p>\n Georgia-Saint Louis pits two similarly seeded teams who enter the NCAA tournament heading in very different directions. The Bulldogs won five of their final seven games and are the nation\u2019s 26th-best team over the past month, per Bart Torvik\u2019s T-Rankings. The Billikens dropped four of their last eight after previously dominating the A-10. They\u2019re No. 148 in that same timespan, per Torvik.<\/p>\n 16. Saint Mary\u2019s (7) vs. Texas A&M (10) \u2014 Thursday, 7:35 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n Extra possessions will tell the story of this game. Will Texas A&M be able to force enough St. Mary\u2019s turnovers to make up for however much the Gaels win the battle on the glass?<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 17. UCLA (7) vs. UCF (10) \u2014 Friday, 7:25 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n Donovan Dent recently has performed like the player UCLA thought it was getting out of the transfer portal, tallying a ridiculous 78-to-6 assist-to-turnover ratio in his past eight games. If he\u2019s healthy and UCLA can avoid getting destroyed on the glass, the Bruins should advance.<\/p>\n 18. Clemson (8) vs. Iowa (9) \u2014 Friday, 6:50 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n Snail races are faster than this game will be. The winner will be whoever executes its half-court offense better. Clemson has struggled defending the pick-and-roll this season, which is not ideal when the other team runs its offense through pick-and-roll savant Bennett Stirtz.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n TIER 6: NEVER SAY NEVER<\/p>\n 19. Arkansas (4) vs. Hawaii (13) \u2014 Thursday, 4:25 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n Will Hawaii play its trademark no-help defensive scheme against Arkansas? If so, Darius Acuff might go off for 40-plus. Acuff led the scorching-hot Razorbacks to the SEC tournament title this past week, averaging a ridiculous 30.3 points, 7.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds while logging 39 minutes per game.<\/p>\n 20. Kansas (4) vs. Cal Baptist (13) \u2014 Friday, 9:45 p.m. (CBS)<\/p>\n America, meet Dominique Daniels. Generously listed at 5-foot-10, the cold-blooded senior point guard averages 23.2 points per game for Cal Baptist and erupted for as many as 47 in a game earlier this season. He\u2019s capable of carrying the Lancers against Kansas \u2026 or shooting them out of the game early.<\/p>\n 21. Gonzaga (3) vs. Kennesaw State (14) \u2014 Thursday, 10 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n How long has it been since Gonzaga has lost a first-round matchup? Steph Curry went off for 40 points to lead Davidson to an 82-76 victory. Look for the Zags to keep their streak alive against a Kennesaw State team that went 10-10 in Conference USA this season but took advantage of Liberty\u2019s early exit to win the conference tournament.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 22. Michigan State (3) vs. North Dakota State (14) \u2014 Thursday, 4:05 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n Michigan State\u2019s high-flying Coen Carr elevates the watchability of this game whether or not North Dakota State can keep it close into the second half.<\/p>\n 23. Purdue (2) vs. Queens (15) \u2014 Friday, 7:35 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n Queens has faced a total of five power-conference opponents so far this season, allowing an average of 102.6 points per game against the likes of Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas and Auburn.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t bode well for the ASUN tournament champions against a Purdue team with the nation\u2019s best offense and a point guard known for carving up even the best defenses.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 24. Illinois (3) vs. Pennsylvania (14) \u2014 Thursday, 9:25 p.m. (TNT)<\/p>\n After struggling to earn playing time at Duke and Virginia, former five-star recruit TJ Power has excelled at Penn. He is averaging 15.7 points and a team-high 7.5 rebounds this season and went for 44 and 14 against top-seeded Yale in the Ivy League title game, including a game-tying 3-pointer in the final seconds of regulation.<\/p>\n Ivy League teams have historically been dangerous in the NCAA tournament, but the size and talent disparity between Illinois and Penn is massive.<\/p>\n 25. Virginia (3) vs. Wright State (14) \u2014 Friday, 1:50 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n Virginia has a recent history losing to double-digit seeds in the NCAA tournament, but this is a favorable matchup. The Cavaliers block shots at the second highest rate of any team in the field and limit teams to an anemic 36.1% shooting in the paint. That\u2019s not good news for a Wright State team that generates much of its offense at the rim.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n 26. UConn (2) vs. Furman (15) \u2014 Friday, 10 p.m. (TBS)<\/p>\n Not even a data-driven model built by Furman professors gives the Paladins much chance of toppling second-seeded UConn on Friday night.<\/p>\n \u201cFurman has about a 7% chance of an upset,\u201d professor Kevin Hutson said in a story published on the university website.<\/a> \u201cThat\u2019s sort of the bad news. The good news is if you look at all the 15 seeds this year, that\u2019s the best chance any of them has.\u201d<\/p>\n TIER 7: OVER BEFORE HALFTIME<\/p>\n 27. Houston (2) vs. Idaho (15) \u2014 10:10 p.m. (TruTV)<\/p>\n![\"KANSAS](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/2c56732d-aadc-4e5b-8762-d5e32e1936b8.jpeg\"\/)
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