Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro is warning that a widely speculated 2028 presidential contest between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance could backfire on the secretary. 

In a podcast interview with host Patrick Bet-David released on Wednesday, Shapiro cast doubt that Rubio would launch a presidential bid, citing the secretary’s history as a “very risk-averse politician.”

“If you’re Marco and you’re … gaming out what the next few years look like for you, here are your choices: Run against JD, you lose, you’re done,” Shapiro said. 

“You run against JD, you win, it’s a rough election cycle anyway because the president’s riding in the 30s and the country’s in the mood for ‘something new’ and you lose, you’re done,” Shapiro continued. “You don’t run, JD may pick you as his VP candidate, JD loses, you’re next. JD does not pick you and JD loses, you’re also next.”

The conservative commentator said that these considerations suggest “Rubio will not run out of risk aversion” and that he would put his “money on Vance” in this race. 

Neither Rubio nor Vance have publicly announced their intent to run in 2028, but President Trump has said he believes they would be a “dream team” on a presidential ticket. 

“I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate,” he told reporters in May, without specifying which person he supported in each role. 

Days later, the vice president brushed aside a reporter’s question about political tensions between him and the secretary, emphasizing that they shared a close relationship. 

“I love Marco. I think he’s a great Secretary of State,” Vance said. “He’s become a very, very dear friend, but I think both of us are very much focused on accomplishing the American people’s business right now. 

“If I was the American people, there are few things that I would hate more than a person who’s barely been in office a year-and-a-half who’s angling for a job two-and-a-half years down the road,” he continued. “Let’s do a good job now. We are, we’ve just got to keep at it.”

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