The populist wind is blowing strongly once again in Europe, this time tinged with Nazi nostalgia. And the triumph of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, the oldest and poorest of the German federal states, complicates the deliberations in Italia by Giorgia Meloni and her allies on three key issues: relations with Friedrich Merz’s Germany and with Europe in general, the alliance with Roberto Vannacci, and the date of the election.
Deputy Prime Ministers on opposing sides
The initial reactions alone are already setting off alarm bells within the ruling coalition. With the two deputy prime ministers heading in opposite directions: the League’s Matteo Salvini congratulates ‘my friend Alice Weidel’ on her ‘resounding success’ (whilst Saxon leader Ulrich Siegmund receives praise from Elon Musk: ‘Well done’), whilst the centre-right Antonio Tajani speaks of ‘terrible news’ and the rise of a political force ‘at odds with liberal and Western values’. A predictable divergence, even if Salvini’s jubilation clashes with the fact that the AfD is twinned with none other than Vannacci, the great traitor. He gloats, quoting Turandot: Mario Monti, with whom he clashed on stage at Cernobbio, ‘will have to devote what little energy he has left to the AfD as well. Nessun dorma’.
Meloni remains silent and ponders
As for the Prime Minister, who, following the celebration in Bari marking the government’s record-breaking tenure, has chosen to remain silent – ‘It has never interfered in other countries’ elections,’ his staff explain diplomatically – is yet another factor to be taken into account in the complex assessments currently under way. Not that the Saxon result hadn’t been factored in, but the percentage of the vote – 44.5 per cent – exceeded expectations and confirms just how much the radicalisation of messaging and the fury against the European Union are striking a chord with an impoverished electorate that is increasingly weary of war. The party line at Fratelli d’Italia is quickly established: no immediate comments; every move must be carefully considered.
Criticism of the euro set to increase
Setting aside fears of repercussions for Merz, which could reignite the crisis with Italy over ‘Dublin cases’ which the Chancellor wants to send back, the Italian right intends, first and foremost, to step up its criticism of the EU. This is already evident from a statement made by Tajani – the most pro-European figure in the coalition – in an interview with *Il Messaggero*. “Europe,” he argues, “must change: no more fundamentalism, no more Green Deal, less bureaucracy, yes to the single market. In general, less ideological choices, less detached from the public.” This is the line consistently taken by Meloni, who has made the battle against “ideological environmentalism” and the risk of “industrial desertification” – exacerbated by European policies – her rallying cry. It is easy to imagine that she will wave this banner with ever-greater vigour.
The turmoil in Ukraine
On the other hand, Palazzo Chigi is also grappling with another question: how to continue supporting Kyiv – a move opposed by the AfD, which has capitalised on the frustration felt by some Germans – whilst Zelensky himself is warning of a conflict that is set to drag on well into next winter? A shift in stance was already evident at the celebrations marking the government’s record-breaking tenure last Friday in Bari, where not a single mention was made of support for the Ukrainian people. This support will continue, not least thanks to the steadfastness of the Under-Secretary Giovanbattista Fazzolari, but one can safely bet that it will be more low-key than ever. Not least because the very person campaigning against Italian support is Vannacci himself, whose pro-Russian stance – just like that of the AfD – is certainly no secret.