Viktor Orbán’s governing alliance Fidesz–KDNP would secure 50 per cent of the vote among decided voters if elections were held this Sunday, according to a recent nationwide poll conducted and published by the Budapest-based think tank Center for Fundamental Rights. The results place the governing parties eight points ahead of the opposition Tisza Party, which stands at 42 per cent.

The survey, conducted at the end of March, indicates that support for the governing alliance has steadily increased in recent months, rising from 47 per cent in October 2025 to its current level. In contrast, Tisza’s support has stabilized at 42 per cent, suggesting the party has been unable to achieve a breakthrough in the final phase of the campaign.

Voter turnout is also on the rise, with willingness to participate reaching 74 per cent—equivalent to approximately 5.65 million voters. According to the analysis, such a high turnout traditionally favours the most stable and organized political force, which, in Hungary’s case, has historically benefited Fidesz.

The Center for Fundamental Rights attributes the governing parties’ gains to several factors. Among them is what it describes as a ‘clear rejection’ by voters of narratives surrounding alleged Russian interference.

The report argues that Hungarian society is highly sensitive to any perceived external influence in domestic politics, which it says has negatively affected Tisza’s support, especially in light of claims that individuals linked to the party may have been involved in Ukrainian intelligence-related activities.

PHOTO: Center for Fundamental Rights

Energy policy has also emerged as a key dividing line in the campaign. The think tank claims that a leaked programme attributed to Tisza—including the removal of the utility price cap, the privatization of the state-owned energy company MVM, the restructuring of MOL’s ownership, and a full phase-out of Russian oil by 2035—would impose significant financial burdens on households. This, the analysis argues, has contributed to a shift in voter sentiment towards the governing parties.

At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s nationwide campaign tour is described as having a strong mobilizing effect, helping Fidesz approach its 2022 domestic voter base of approximately 2.8 million. The combination of increased mobilization and high turnout expectations is seen as reinforcing the governing parties’ electoral position.

Among smaller parties, the hard right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) stands at 5 per cent among decided voters, while the Democratic Coalition (DK) is at 2 per cent and the satirical Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) at 1 per cent.

The poll was conducted using CATI telephone interviews across multiple waves between 28 and 29 March, based on a representative sample of 1,000 adults. According to the Center, the margin of error is approximately 3.16 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.

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