Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo credit: wikicommons/U.S. Department of State)
Benjamin Netanyahu did not win Israel’s election. His governing coalition lost substantial ground, falling from 68 Knesset seats to a projected 53, well short of the 61 needed to govern. Yet he remains prime minister, his Likud party is the largest in the Knesset, and his opponents cannot agree on how to replace him.
For a politician whose career has been defined by political survival, the result offers opportunity.
Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc won a projected 48 seats, while Arab parties captured an unprecedented 19. Together, they command a parliamentary majority. But arithmetic is not agreement. Opposition leaders who promised not to govern with Netanyahu also rejected cooperation with Arab parties. Those commitments now stand between them and power.
Netanyahu has several alternatives. He could seek a national unity government with Eisenkot, approach Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Liberman, or attempt to persuade opposition lawmakers to break ranks. He might even consider abandoning some of his far-right partners to attract more moderate allies. Each possibility would require concessions. And Netanyahu has demonstrated extraordinary skill at making political arrangements that serve his immediate needs. The difficulty is finding someone willing to trust him.
Benny Gantz learned that lesson in 2020, when he entered a unity government under an agreement providing for a rotating premiership. Netanyahu remained prime minister, the arrangement collapsed, and Gantz never received his promised turn.
Other former allies have similarly emerged from Netanyahu partnerships politically diminished or deeply disillusioned. That history matters because Netanyahu’s prospective partners must weigh more than ministerial portfolios or policy concessions. They must decide whether an agreement can survive once Netanyahu has secured what he wants.
But Netanyahu possesses another advantage: time. If coalition negotiations fail, Israel faces another election, potentially after months of procedural maneuvering. Throughout that period, Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister, exercising substantial governmental authority. What appears to be political paralysis could provide him additional months in office without securing a new parliamentary majority.
That possibility raises questions extending beyond Netanyahu’s ambitions. Israel faces consequential decisions concerning Iran, Gaza, military service, judicial independence and its relationship with Washington. A prolonged caretaker government would leave those decisions in the hands of a leader whose coalition failed to secure renewed majority support.
President Isaac Herzog has urged political leaders to approach negotiations with open minds and avoid another election. That is understandable. Israelis endured five elections between 2019 and 2022. Another cycle of uncertainty would hardly strengthen public confidence. Yet avoiding elections cannot become the sole objective. A government assembled through incompatible promises, personal rivalries and arrangements nobody trusts may simply postpone the next crisis.