Hungary, a country of less than 10 million, is exposed to hybrid warfare at the intelligence and information level on a scale comparable only to what we witnessed in the United States during the 2016 presidential race. With less than two weeks until the most important election in the country’s—and possibly Europe’s—post-communist history, it is increasingly clear that Russian, Ukrainian, and certain Western intelligence services, as well as their media ecosystems, are operating at a high level to influence the outcome of the April vote.

What was already a tense election campaign—which has effectively been ongoing since February 2024, following the emergence of Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar—has, as it entered its final phase, escalated into a full-scale, multi-layered hybrid war. Politically weaponized intelligence and media, alongside ever-escalating—often under-evidenced—accusations, are colliding across two completely contradictory and sharply opposed narratives about what is happening in Hungary. And, to be honest, since last week, it has become increasingly difficult to tell what is actually happening.

Clash of Two Realities

While this article aims to explain why, not just what is happening, recent developments must be outlined. The escalation began with a Washington Post report alleging that Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó leaked confidential EU information to Russia, alongside claims of a Russian memo proposing a staged assassination attempt against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Earlier allegations by journalist Szabolcs Panyi about Russian operatives further fuelled this narrative, widely amplified by Western, Ukrainian, and opposition actors despite limited evidence.

The Hungarian government rejects the accusations as politically motivated, pointing instead to a foreign-backed effort involving EU and Ukrainian actors. Meanwhile, competing leaks and counterclaims, alongside the EU’s Digital Services Act measures, have intensified what is now a highly polarized and tightly controlled information environment.

‘Hungary is witnessing an open intelligence and information war, with multiple global actors advancing mutually exclusive narratives’

In essence, Hungary is witnessing an open intelligence and information war, with multiple global actors advancing mutually exclusive narratives to influence the outcome of the election. It is as if the Romanian presidential election of 2024, the Georgian election turmoil of 2023, and the Macron leaks of 2017 have been compressed into a single political arena—an unprecedented convergence of components typical of hybrid warfare.

Why is all of this unfolding in a landlocked country of fewer than 10 million people in the heart of the Carpathian Basin? The answer lies in how Hungary—once a peripheral and compliant member of the European Union and NATO—transformed into one of Europe’s central geopolitical pivots, where Western and Eastern great-power interests collide. The most important catalyst behind this is Viktor Orbán.

Making Hungary a Geopolitical Pivot

Orbán came to power for the second time after nearly a decade in opposition in 2010, when his Fidesz–KDNP alliance won its first supermajority, delivering a crushing defeat to the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). The country, both in terms of social cohesion and economic performance, was in a devastating situation.

Shortly after winning the 2006 parliamentary election, a leaked audio recording revealed that then-Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány had admitted that MSZP had lied throughout the campaign and that severe austerity measures were inevitable, as the state budget was effectively empty. This led to the largest protests in Hungary’s post-communist history, clashes between demonstrators and police, and a nation outraged at its government.

On top of all this, the 2008 financial crisis hit the European Union, and the already struggling Hungarian economy was pushed to the brink. The Socialist government turned to the IMF for a bailout, which it ultimately secured.

According to his own account, Orbán identified the 2008 crisis as the starting point of the gradual breakdown of the Western-led liberal world order. Backed by a supermajority, he set out to rebuild Hungary to prepare for that collapse and to capitalize on shifting geopolitical realities.

Orbán built his system, known as the ‘System of National Cooperation’ (NER), in contrast to liberal democracies. In a 2014 speech, he explicitly described it as an ‘illiberal democracy’—not based on individualist Western liberal ideology, but on a strong Christian state that prioritizes the nation as a community, capable of competing globally and defending national interests.

A key pillar of this strategy was that, while remaining within the transatlantic alliance system, Hungary would open towards the East, strengthening diplomatic, economic, energy, and trade ties with countries often described by Western leaders as less democratic or autocratic.

Orbán labelled this the ‘Eastern Opening’ policy, which resulted in closer energy and trade partnerships with Russia—ensuring relatively cheap energy for Hungary’s industrial growth; a record influx of Chinese investment—making Hungary one of the most important partners of the world’s second-largest economy; and expanded cultural and political ties with Turkic states and the broader Global South—positioning Hungary as a respected actor beyond the traditional Western sphere.

At the same time, Western investments—primarily from the German automotive sector—continued to flow into the country, effectively turning Hungary into a bridge between East and West, both economically and diplomatically. By 2013, Hungary had fully repaid its IMF loan, achieving what Orbán described as economic sovereignty and paving the way for the repurchase of previously privatized state assets.

Systemic Disruptor or a Model to Follow?

The system was built on pragmatic cooperation without ideological constraints, sharply contrasting with the approach promoted by the European Union and Western European countries. As a result, Hungary increasingly diverged from the Western mainstream on key issues: first during the 2015 migration crisis, then on the green transition, the growing promotion of gender ideology, and most recently, the war in Ukraine. Since 2010, Orbán has systematically reasserted national sovereignty in areas where Brussels has sought deeper integration.

As tensions between the EU leadership and Orbán’s Hungary became more frequent and more serious, the country discovered its greatest leverage over Brussels: in a system based on consensus, a single dissenting actor can become indispensable. By using his veto power strategically and increasingly frequently, Orbán has been able to shape outcomes far beyond Hungary’s size and economic or military weight.

At the same time, this has placed Hungary at the centre of sustained Western criticism for undermining what is described as ‘European unity’. Given its decade-long multi-vector foreign policy, from a Hungarian perspective it has been clear that the country would not support many of the sanctions against Russia, particularly in the energy sector, nor measures such as tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

‘Orbán has been able to shape outcomes far beyond Hungary’s size and economic or military weight’

This has made the EU increasingly invested in removing Orbán from power, as Hungary is now seen by the Brussels mainstream as a challenge to cohesion and a systemic disruptor. In recent years, this conflict has gone beyond rhetoric: Article 7 proceedings have been ongoing since 2018, potentially leading to the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights, while proposals to bypass Orbán’s veto regularly emerge at European Council meetings.

At the same time, Orbán’s opposition to Brussels—and, more broadly, to global liberal elites—has elevated him to a leading figure of the right-wing, sovereignist movement in both Europe and the United States. MAGA Republicans view Hungary as a model in several respects: strict border control, a hard line on illegal migration, the promotion of Christian and traditional values, support for families, and resistance to gender ideology.

‘Hungary is a beacon of hope’ has become a recurring phrase among American conservatives. No other European leader was mentioned as frequently by US President Donald Trump during the 2024 campaign. Following his re-election, members of his administration have repeatedly described Hungary as a ‘civilizational ally’, deepening both ideological and economic cooperation.

By demonstrating that a single member state can resist Brussels, Orbán has also contributed to the emergence of a broader European right-wing bloc. In 2024, he co-founded Patriots for Europe (PfE), now the third-largest group in the European Parliament and still growing. From Alice Weidel to Marine Le Pen, Orbán enjoys the support of major opposition figures in the EU’s largest member states. A victory in the upcoming election could further strengthen this movement, while a defeat would represent a symbolic setback.

The stakes for both Russia and Ukraine are equally clear. For Moscow, Orbán’s Hungary represents its closest partner within the EU—a strategic foothold capable of complicating Western decision-making. For Kyiv, the opposite is true: Hungary has become its most critical EU counterpart, opposing financial and military support as well as Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. A victory for Orbán’s opposition is a matter of life and death for Kyiv.

Hungary After 2026

Taken together, all of these factors have transformed Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election into an unprecedented hybrid battleground, where foreign intelligence services and media—both Western and Eastern—are fuelling a war of narratives and disinformation, constructing two entirely contradictory political realities.

The consequences are already visible: Hungarian society is deeply polarized, mutual understanding between opposing camps has largely collapsed, and the legitimacy of the electoral process is being contested even before votes are cast.

Whatever the outcome, one thing is already clear: after 2026, the Hungary we knew in the past decade is unlikely to remain the same.

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