Good afternoon. Thank you for the warm welcome. It is always good to be in Berlin.

Just over 36 years ago—on a now famous night in November—NATO Secretary General Manfred Wörner jumped in his car and drove through the night to Berlin. In the rush, he forgot to tell his staff in Brussels where he was going. Manfred was heading home to Germany to join the crowds celebrating the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Today, a section of the Wall stands at NATO Headquarters. It was a barrier to keep people in, and ideas out. Now, it is a monument to the force of freedom—a reminder of the power of unity and a lesson that we must stay strong, confident, and steadfast.

Because the dark forces of oppression are on the march again. I am here today to tell you where NATO stands and what we must do to stop a war before it starts. To do that, we need to be crystal clear about the threat. We are Russia’s next target. And we are already in harm’s way.

When I became NATO Secretary General last year, I warned that what is happening in Ukraine could happen to Allied countries too. That we had to shift to a wartime mindset. This year, we took big decisions to make NATO stronger. At the Summit in The Hague, Allies agreed to invest 5% of GDP annually in defense by 2035. We agreed to increase defense production across the Alliance. And we agreed to continue our support to Ukraine.

But this is not the time for self-congratulation. I fear that too many are quietly complacent. Too many don’t feel the urgency. Too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now.

Allied defense spending and production must rise rapidly. Our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe. And Ukraine must have what it needs to defend itself—now. Our governments, parliaments, and our citizens have to be in this together. So that we can continue to protect peace, freedom, and prosperity. Our open societies, free elections, and a free press.

We must all accept that we must act to defend our way of life—now. Because this year, Russia has become even more brazen, reckless, and ruthless towards NATO and Ukraine. 

During the Cold War, President Reagan warned about the “aggressive impulses of an evil empire”. Today, President Putin is in the empire-building business again. He is throwing everything he has at Ukraine. Killing soldiers and civilians. Destroying the havens of humanity—homes, schools, and hospitals.

So far this year, Russia has launched over 46,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine. Russia is likely producing 2,900 attack drones a month, and a similar number of decoys to distract air defenses. And in 2025, Russia produced around 2,000 land-attack cruise and ballistic missiles. It is close to peak production.

While Putin is trying to destroy Ukraine, he is also devastating his own country. There have been over 1.1 million Russian casualties since he began his war in 2022. And this year, Russia has lost on average 1,200 troops a day. Think about that. More than a million casualties so far. And 1,200 a day, killed or wounded, this year alone.

Putin is paying for his pride with the blood of his own people. And if he is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us? In his distorted view of history and the world, Putin believes that our freedom threatens his stranglehold on power. And that we want to destroy Russia. Putin is doing a good job of that all by himself.

Russia’s economy is now geared to wage war, not to make its people prosperous. Russia is spending nearly 40% of its budget on aggression. And around 70% of all machine tools in Russia are used in military production. Taxes are going up, inflation has skyrocketed, and petrol is rationed. Putin’s next presidential campaign slogan should be: “Make Russia weak again.” Not that he’s troubled by free and fair elections of course.

And how is Putin able to continue his war against Ukraine? The answer is China. China is Russia’s lifeline. China wants to prevent its ally from losing in Ukraine. Without China’s support, Russia could not continue to wage this war. For example, about 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones and other systems are made in China. So, when civilians die in Kyiv or Kharkiv, Chinese technology is often inside the weapons that killed them. And let’s not forget that Russia also relies on North Korea and Iran in its fight against freedom with ammunition and military equipment.

So far, Putin has only played the peacemaker when it suits him to buy time to continue his war. President Trump wants to end the bloodshed now. He’s the only one who can get Putin to the negotiating table. So, let’s put Putin to the test. Let’s see if he really wants peace, or if he prefers the slaughter to continue. It is essential that all of us keep up the pressure on Russia and support the genuine efforts to bring this war to an end.

NATO’s support means Ukraine can defend itself today. Be in a strong position to secure a just and lasting peace. And be able to deter any Russian aggression in the future. Billions of dollars’ worth of critical military hardware is flowing into Ukraine, sourced from the United States, paid for by Allies and Partners. This is firepower only America can provide. We are doing this through a NATO initiative we call PURL.

Since it was launched this summer, PURL has supplied around 75% of all missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot batteries. And 90% of the ammunition used in its other air defense systems. I want to thank Germany and other Allies for their support. PURL is keeping Ukraine in the fight and protecting its population. And I count on more Allies to contribute to PURL and to step up support to Ukraine in many other ways. Because we must strengthen Ukraine—so they can stop Putin in his tracks.

Just imagine if Putin got his way: Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with NATO, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us. It would require a truly gargantuan shift in our deterrence and defense. NATO would have to substantially increase its military presence along the eastern flank. And Allies would have to go much further and faster on defense spending and production.

In such a scenario, we would long for the days when 3.5 percent of GDP on core defense was enough. That number would grow massively. And with that imminent threat, we would have to act fast. There would be emergency budgets, cuts to public spending, economic disruption, and further financial pressure. In that scenario, painful trade-offs would be unavoidable, but absolutely necessary to protect our people. So, let’s not forget: Ukraine’s security is our security.

NATO’s own defenses can hold for now. But with its economy dedicated to war, Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies. Russia’s list of targets for sabotage is not limited to critical infrastructure, the defense industry, and military facilities. There have been attacks on commercial warehouses and shopping centers, and explosives hidden in parcels. And Poland is now investigating sabotage against its railway network.

This year, we have seen reckless airspace violations by Russia. Whether it is drones over Poland and Romania, or fighter jets over Estonia, such incidents put lives in danger and raise the risk of escalation. And while we often think of the risk primarily in terms of our eastern flank, Russia’s reach is not limited to land. The Arctic and the Atlantic are additional avenues. A reminder, yet again, of why this Alliance has been so crucial for so many years on both sides of the Atlantic. So, we are working together to ensure the safety and security of all Allies—on land, at sea, and in the air.

We have increased our vigilance and strengthened our deterrence and defense along the eastern flank with Eastern Sentry. And we continue to protect our critical infrastructure at sea with Baltic Sentry. NATO’s response to Russia’s provocations has been calm, decisive, and proportionate. But we need to be prepared for further escalation and confrontation.

Our enduring commitment to NATO’s Article 5, that an attack on one is an attack on all, sends a powerful message. Any aggressor must know that we can—and will—hit back hard. That is why we made the crucial decisions in The Hague on defense spending, production, and support for Ukraine.

We are seeing important progress. Look at ammunition production. We have seen a sixfold increase in European production of 155-millimeter artillery shells, compared with two years ago. I visited a new factory in Germany—in Unterlüß—this year which plans to produce 350,000 artillery shells a year.

Germany is fundamentally shifting its approach to defense and industry to increase defense production. And the investments Germany is making in its armed forces are extraordinary. Around 152 billion planned for defense by 2029—3.5 percent of its GDP. Germany is a leading power in Europe and a driving force in NATO. German leadership is essential for our collective defense. Its commitment to doing its fair share for our security is an example to all Allies.

We need to be ready. Because at the end of this first quarter of the 21st century, conflicts are no longer fought at arms-length. Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe. And we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured. Imagine it, a conflict reaching every home, every workplace. Destruction, mass mobilisation, millions displaced. Widespread suffering and extreme losses.

It’s a terrible thought. But if we deliver on our commitments, this is a tragedy we can prevent. NATO is here to protect one billion people on both sides of the Atlantic. Our mission is to protect you, your families, your friends, and your future. We cannot let down our guard. And we won’t.

I count on our governments to keep up with their commitments, and go further and faster. Because we cannot falter or fail. Listen to the sirens across Ukraine. Look at the bodies pulled from the rubble. Think of the Ukrainians who might go to sleep tonight and not wake up tomorrow. What is standing between what’s happening to them, and what could happen to us? Only NATO.

I have a duty as Secretary General to tell you what lies ahead if we don’t act faster, invest in defense, and continue our support for Ukraine. I know this is a hard message as we head towards the festive season, when our thoughts turn to hope, light, and peace. But we can take courage and strength knowing that we stand together in NATO—with determination and in the knowledge that we are on the right side of history.

We have a plan. We know what to do. So let us deliver. We must.

Thank you.