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BarcelonaOr Pedro Sánchez with Yolanda Díaz or Alberto Núñez Feijóo with Santiago Abascal. This is the choice that the two main state blocs offer for July 23, and it seems that in Catalonia voters are clear about who to lean towards. The PSC, with Meritxell Batet at the helm, would broadly win the elections and could climb up to 16-18 seats, doubling the results of whoever ends up second. It would be the first socialist victory in a general election in Catalonia since 2008 when Àngels Chacón achieved the party’s historic best results with 25 deputies. In any case, the socialist victory in the Principality could end up being bitter if the PP dominates the State as a whole. The latest poll published, that of the CIS, assures that nothing has been decided yet, even though most polls place the Popular Party well above the Socialists.

ERC and Junts are best positioned to aim for second place, according to the Barometer of the Opinion Center (CEO). The Republicans, who would drop from the 13 deputies in 2019 with which they obtained victory, could now aim for 8-10, and Junts aspires to a maximum of 9. The equality between the two parties contrasts with the results of the general elections in both the two Spanish elections of 2019 and those of 2016 and 2015, when ERC was clearly ahead. Surpassing ERC would be a breath of fresh air for Junts, for whom polls have not been favorable since 2021.

The PSC would capitalize on the useful vote by taking 16% of the votes from the commons in 2019; 13% from Junts; 12% from ERC and the PP; and even 8% from Vox voters. But where it makes a difference is especially among the dual voter, the one who changes party between Catalan and Spanish elections. 15% of ERC voters in the Parliament would prefer the PSC for Congress, as would 13% of those who voted for the commons and 7% of Junts (as well as 27% of Cs, who are not running on July 23). “This is where the explanation for the results lies,” commented the director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, who points out that the situation in 2019, when ERC finished ahead of the PSC, “was perhaps exceptional.” Once Pedro Sánchez called the elections, socialist prospects automatically soared in Catalonia.

But the socialists would not be the only ones to benefit from the useful vote, and if the PSC were to condition Sumar’s chances of success, the PP would do the same with Vox’s: it would take 20% of the far-right voters in the general elections four years ago and would also convince 46% of those who voted for Ciutadans in the last Catalan elections. The PP would grow to 6-8 seats (it had 2) and would be the fourth force, surpassing the great disappointment of the elections if the CEO’s forecasts are confirmed: Sumar would only obtain between 2 and 4 seats. Although Yolanda Díaz’s project, with Aina Vidal at the helm, would convince 14% of the CUP voters, their expectations are plummeting with a PSC that is capitalizing on the vote to curb a PP-Vox government. The controversies surrounding Irene Montero would also not have benefited them, although the party has been recovering in the last days of the survey’s fieldwork.

The far-right would achieve representation in Congress, but it would not grow and would maintain its 2 deputies or could get 3, and although it does not lose its chances of repeating in Congress for a second consecutive term, the CUP will have a hard time: the CEO predicts between 0 and 2 seats for it. The PDECat, which is running under the EspaiCiU banner, would not reach the minimum percentage of votes to enter the seat allocation.

PSC and ERC, neck and neck in the Catalan elections

Unlike July 23, the outlook in hypothetical parliamentary elections is much more uncertain. The PSC would also be the most voted party –as happens in the latest polls–, but the difference with ERC is minimal. The socialists would obtain between 31 and 37 deputies, compared to the 31-36 that the republicans would achieve, slightly lower in percentage of votes.

Junts would be the third force, with 25-30, and the PP would consolidate the fourth position that the last Barometer already granted it, with a result of between 13 and 17 seats. The ranges are very wide, but if it were in the upper range, the populars would approach their best results in Catalan elections: in 2012, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho obtained 19 seats in the Catalan chamber.

The CUP (7-11) and the comuns (7-11) would more or less maintain their current results in the Parliament and, on the other hand, it would be Vox who could fall the most, probably harmed by the rise of the PP. The far-right commanded by Ignacio Garriga has 11 deputies in the chamber today, and would only maintain them in the best-case scenario for them, since, according to the CEO, they would fall to the last position, with between 6 and 10 deputies. Ciutadans would disappear from the Parliament by obtaining only between 1% and 2% of the votes.

Who knows the name of the president of the Generalitat?

Regarding political leaders, the President of the Government, Pere Aragonès, matches his party leader, Oriol Junqueras, on the list of the best-rated. Both score 4.8. In Aragonès’ case, 85% claim to know him, but this data contrasts with another question in the survey. “Do you know the name of the President of the Generalitat?” Only 45% of Catalans get his name right – a year ago the figure was even more dramatic, when only 41% knew him.

Although he is no longer on the commons’ lists, Jaume Asens also receives an average rating of 4.8 from citizens (only 43% know him) and Salvador Illa is fourth with 4.5. The head of the opposition has even more trouble than the president getting people to know his name: only 20% know his name, although 81% say they know him when told who he is.

Next, Jéssica Albiach, from the commons, with 4.4; Eulàlia Reguant (CUP), also with 4.4; and the Minister of Culture and Sports, Miquel Iceta (PSC), with 4.2.

The former president Carles Puigdemont, who this very Wednesday saw his European immunity lost, has an average score of 4; as always, with very good scores among his voters and very negative ones among voters of unionist parties. A similar situation to Laura Borràs, who has a 3.8. Carlos Carrizosa (Cs) and Ignacio Garriga (Vox) are the worst-rated, with 1.7; and they share the podium with Inés Arrimadas (2), who has just left politics.

52% of Catalans are against independence

Since July 2020, supporters of a yes and no vote for independence seem to have stabilized in the CEO Barometer. This July, those against their own state stand at 52%, ten points above those who would like to become independent from Spain (42%). The negotiated route, whether for the unity of Spain (32%) or for independence (32%), is the majority’s preference, and only 21% want unilateral solutions, half to achieve secession from the State and the other half to impose unity.