{"id":11259,"date":"2026-04-05T18:55:47","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T18:55:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/11259\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T18:55:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T18:55:47","slug":"tim-cook-sleeps-with-one-eye-open-after-cia-taiwan-warning-but-do-prediction-markets-agree-he-should-be-worried","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/11259\/","title":{"rendered":"Tim Cook ‘Sleeps With One Eye Open’ After CIA Taiwan Warning, But Do Prediction Markets Agree He Should Be Worried?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<\/a>AAPL<\/a>) CEO Tim Cook sat in a classified CIA briefing in Silicon Valley in 2023 and was told China could move on Taiwan as early as 2027.<\/p>\n

He later told officials he now \u201cslept with one eye open.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prediction markets suggest he\u2019s not the only one paying attention. A Polymarket contract asking \u201cWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?\u201d is priced at 10% with over $9 million in volume.<\/p>\n

A separate contract on a military clash between the two, which traders view as a precursor to full invasion, sits at 14%.<\/p>\n

Cook wasn\u2019t alone in the room.<\/p>\n

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Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<\/a>NVDA<\/a>) CEO Jensen Huang and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:<\/a>AMD<\/a>) CEO Lisa Su were also there, according to a New York Times investigation published Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The meeting was arranged after then-Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo grew frustrated that Silicon Valley wouldn\u2019t stop sourcing chips from a war zone.<\/p>\n

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:<\/a>TSM<\/a>) fabricates roughly 90% of the world\u2019s most advanced semiconductors. Every iPhone. Every Nvidia GPU. Every AMD processor.<\/p>\n

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it \u201cthe single biggest point of single failure\u201d in the global economy at Davos last month.<\/p>\n

A confidential industry report reviewed by the Times estimated losing Taiwan\u2019s chip supply would hit U.S. GDP by $2.5 trillion. A separate Bloomberg Economics analysis put the global cost of a full conflict at over $10 trillion.<\/p>\n

Trending:\u00a0Before the IPO: How One Company Quietly Locked Up 500+ Iconic Character Rights<\/a><\/p>\n

The U.S. still produces roughly 10% of the world\u2019s chips, the same share it held before the CHIPS Act passed.<\/p>\n

Biden threw $52 billion in subsidies at domestic manufacturing. Trump followed with a 25% tariff on advanced chip imports in January.<\/p>\n

Together they\u2019ve catalyzed over $640 billion in announced semiconductor investment across 30 states.<\/p>\n

None of it has changed the dependency.<\/p>\n

Global production grew right alongside it.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s government still quietly requires TSM to keep its most advanced processes on the island, and Nvidia\u2019s first \u201cAmerican-made\u201d AI chip had to fly back to Taiwan for completion.<\/p>\n

See Also:\u00a01.5 Million Users Are Already Working Inside This AI Platform \u2014 Investors Can Still Get In<\/a><\/p>\n

Nvidia reports Wednesday after the bell. The entire AI capex thesis runs through TSM fabrication in Taiwan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook sat in a classified CIA briefing in Silicon Valley in 2023 and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11260,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[1014,9958,2327,809,996,9957,2579,628],"class_list":{"0":"post-11259","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tim-cook","8":"tag-advanced-micro-devices-inc","9":"tag-amd-processor","10":"tag-apple-inc","11":"tag-prediction-markets","12":"tag-silicon-valley","13":"tag-taiwan","14":"tag-taiwan-semiconductor","15":"tag-tim-cook"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@people\/116353629117082982","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}