![\"HC](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cropped-HC_Logo-02.png\"\/){kind=logo}
<\/p>\nWhat I am about to write will probably not align with how most Hungarians currently perceive the situation. It is not what the new public media are talking about. It is not what the new government is talking about. Nor is it what public discourse suggests. Yet that does not mean it should not be discussed.<\/p>\n
Not only in Hungary, but throughout the Western world, a peculiar political phenomenon has emerged. Politics is becoming less and less about reality itself and increasingly about how reality is perceived. This is partly the result of technological change. Social media, algorithms, professional political communication, the psychology of financial markets, and our constant online presence have provided politics with tools that simply did not exist before.<\/p>\n
Today, victory does not necessarily belong to those who achieve better results or offer better solutions. It belongs to those who can sustain the belief, for the longest possible time, that everything is under control. This is probably no coincidence. Reality has become uncomfortable for many people. When once strong countries begin to decline or stagnate, few wish to confront the consequences in their everyday lives. Voters do not welcome being confronted with these realities either\u2014especially when no convincing solution is offered.<\/p>\n
Communication is capable of many things, but it cannot do one thing: replace reality. It cannot produce cheap energy. It cannot generate economic growth. It cannot halt demographic decline. And it cannot restore geopolitical power balances that have fundamentally changed.<\/p>\n
Reality will always come knocking sooner or later, no matter how many times we try to throw it out the window. That is why I am convinced that the defining political process of the coming years will be the return of reality.<\/p>\n
For years, Europeans have been encouraged to believe that weaker economic performance is somehow a success. That declining competitiveness is simply the price of pursuing higher moral ideals. That industrial decline marks the beginning of a more modern economy. That ever-rising military spending can coexist indefinitely with the welfare state. That everything can be achieved at once.<\/p>\n
\u2018The defining political process of the coming years will be the return of reality\u2019<\/p>\n
Reality, however, always sends the bill in the end. Neither Brussels, nor Berlin, nor Budapest will be exempt from paying it.<\/p>\n
For this reason, I believe the most important question today is not who can tell the most persuasive story. It is who is willing to speak the truth first. Because when politics becomes permanently detached from reality, it is not reality that is endangered\u2014it is politics itself. And if a country like Hungary fails to wake up in time, it could face very serious consequences.<\/p>\n
That is why we are preparing for the return of reality\u2014for a return to reality itself. A world in which people\u2019s livelihoods, security, and peace must be actively defended. The struggle will not become easier; it will become increasingly difficult. Reality is not easy\u2014it is hard. If we bury our heads in the sand, our problems will not simply pass over us; they will collapse upon us and bury us beneath them.<\/p>\n
The outlook is deeply troubling from several perspectives. The wars in Ukraine and Iran are becoming increasingly interconnected, evolving before our eyes into a broader global proxy conflict, even as everyone tries to maintain the appearance that everything remains under control.<\/p>\n
An election is approaching in the United States this autumn, which is why all major actors are acting cautiously. Oil prices are being artificially suppressed. According to an IMF analysis published just a few days ago, the world has so far managed to absorb the energy-market shock because lost production was offset through strategic reserves, reduced demand, and increased output by other producers.<\/p>\n
However, between March and May, more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil were missing from the market, equivalent to roughly ten days of global oil consumption so far.<\/p>\n
According to the IMF, global strategic reserves have largely been depleted. The renewed closure of another strategic chokepoint only exacerbates the problem. Following the collapse of the US\u2013Iran agreement, new buyers have entered the market, while US strategic reserves continue to decline.<\/p>\n
Nearly one-third of the world\u2019s seaborne oil trade and approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Transit through the strait remains a nightmare. Should another disruption in production or transportation occur, energy prices could surge dramatically, potentially overwhelming energy-importing countries, including Hungary.<\/p>\n
\u2018Between March and May, more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil were missing from the market, equivalent to roughly ten days of global oil consumption so far\u2019<\/p>\n
Hungary\u2019s fuel price cap has already cost the state approximately HUF 200 billion this year. The national budget allocated roughly HUF 800 billion to protecting household utility prices\u2014the same amount as last year. The problem is that last year the TTF natural gas price generally fluctuated between \u20ac30 and \u20ac40 per megawatt-hour, whereas this year\u2019s prices are substantially higher. As a result, the same budgetary allocation now buys significantly less security than it did before.<\/p>\n
Neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank is behaving as though it expects a prolonged period of stability. Financial markets continue to price in inflationary and energy-related risks. In other words, while public discourse remains optimistic, the world\u2019s leading economic institutions are already preparing for a far more difficult period ahead.<\/p>\n
Everyone is preparing for wars and shocks. We are entering a world in which crises will no longer be exceptional events\u2014they will become part of everyday life.<\/p>\n
The war between Ukraine and Russia also continues, in an even more brutal form than before. Neither side is capable of achieving a decisive victory over the other, yet for the time being neither has a genuine interest in ending the fighting. As a result, they continue to pour human lives, weapons, and money into the conflict.<\/p>\n
Long-range strikes are becoming increasingly frequent. Russia no longer regards the conflict as a \u2018special military operation\u2019, but as an existential war. Many had expected the Russian economy to collapse rapidly. That has not happened. According to the IMF, the Russian economy has proved significantly more resilient than anticipated. High energy prices, export markets in Asia, and the wartime economy have enabled it to continue functioning, even if the long-term costs will ultimately be extremely high.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Ukraine is bearing an ever heavier human and economic burden. For now, its forces continue to hold the front lines, but forced mobilization is becoming increasingly severe, while the overwhelming majority of the country\u2019s budget depends on external financing. Ukraine\u2019s long-range attacks have become more effective, yet they also contribute to constraining global supplies of oil and natural gas.<\/p>\n
Europe, meanwhile, is being forced to allocate ever greater financial resources to Ukraine. Every euro spent for this purpose is a euro unavailable elsewhere. If more money is devoted to rearmament and supporting Ukraine, less remains for cohesion policy, less for agricultural subsidies, less for competitiveness, and less for developing European industry. In other words, less remains for addressing Europe\u2019s own economic challenges. This is the reality that is barely discussed in Europe today.<\/p>\n
\u2018We are entering a world in which crises will no longer be exceptional events\u2014they will become part of everyday life\u2019<\/p>\n
By the end of this year, EU leaders intend to finalize the key parameters of the Union\u2019s next seven-year budget. As a result, Ukraine could potentially continue fighting the war for another five to ten years. Achieving this, however, would require the long-term sacrifice of cohesion funds and agricultural subsidies, leaving little money to protect European living standards or to reinvigorate the continent\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n
Germany\u2019s industrial sector is in a catastrophic state. Massive restructuring and layoffs are expected over the coming years, placing Gy\u0151r and tens of thousands of Hungarian jobs at serious risk. Germany\u2019s largest corporations are announcing workforce reductions one after another. Volkswagen has announced job cuts on the scale of hundreds of thousands. Bosch is eliminating several thousand positions. BASF, Europe\u2019s largest chemical company, is successively shutting down or relocating production capacity. This is not simply corporate restructuring\u2014it is evidence that Europe\u2019s industrial model itself has entered a period of crisis.<\/p>\n
Germany is being forced to adapt simultaneously to three major structural changes. It is being compelled to wean itself off cheap Russian energy\u2014which had long been the lifeblood of German industry. It is being drawn into a trade war with China\u2014its most important export market. And the United States is poised to force Europe to rely on products developed by the American AI industry. The consequence is that Europe will not develop its own competitive AI ecosystem. We may use AI products developed elsewhere, but the resulting economic growth will not accrue to Europe.<\/p>\n
As a result, Germany now sees military production as the industry of the future\u2014the new version of the green transition, the latest economic buzzword. There is, of course, a certain historical irony to this development, but the underlying problem is far more serious. Germany\u2019s economic growth has effectively hovered around zero for the past four years: the first two years were slightly negative, and growth is now only marginally positive.<\/p>\n
Only a few years ago, we were talking about Europe becoming a green superpower under German leadership. Today, all that remains is decline and confrontation with others. Nearly one-quarter of Hungary\u2019s exports are destined for Germany, while many of our other export markets depend indirectly on German economic performance. If German industry remains weak over the long term, the consequences will inevitably be felt in Hungarian jobs, Hungarian wages, and Hungary\u2019s economic growth. Germany\u2019s economic problems are therefore no longer merely Germany\u2019s problems\u2014they have become Hungary\u2019s problems as well.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the rise of artificial intelligence continues at an astonishing pace. This is an industry whose key ingredients are advanced semiconductor manufacturing, enormously capital-intensive data centres, and access to inexpensive energy. Europe excels at none of these.<\/p>\n
The social and economic consequences of artificial intelligence, however, will soon be felt here as well. AI will fundamentally reshape the labour market, particularly in occupations requiring higher levels of education. The first casualties will not be factory workers or employees in the hospitality industry\u2014their jobs will be threatened by robotics a few years later. Rather, it will be highly educated young professionals who currently believe their futures are secure: analysts, software developers, lawyers, accountants, finance professionals, marketers, customer service representatives, and translators. According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, the spread of generative artificial intelligence could affect hundreds of millions of jobs worldwide.<\/p>\n
Within major shared service centres, the question today is no longer whether artificial intelligence will be adopted, but how many employees can be replaced by it. Hungary is particularly exposed to this trend.<\/p>\n
Over the past decade and a half, we consciously built an economic model based simultaneously on high-value-added manufacturing and business service centres. Tens of thousands of highly skilled young Hungarians work in these centres today. At present, they feel secure. Many of them were probably pleased with the election result. But in a few years, the situation may look very different. Work currently performed by 20 people may eventually require only one.<\/p>\n
Hungary developed a particular model of state governance and economic management over many years. It was not perfect, but it proved resilient during the most difficult crises. It was sustainable because it rested on several pillars: strong advocacy in Brussels, access to inexpensive Russian energy, expanding Chinese investment, and strategic exemptions granted by the United States. This made it possible to implement family tax reductions, the flat-income-tax system, utility price reductions, and the 13th and 14th-month pensions without overwhelming the country\u2019s finances.<\/p>\n
The latest OECD figures show that over the past five years Hungary achieved the largest increase in real wages among all European Union member states. Our objective should have been to repeat at least that level of performance over the following five years. We improved the fiscal balance by 2 percentage points, kept the budget deficit at around 5 per cent, and maintained public debt at roughly 75 per cent of GDP. We were able to increase wages even while virtually every economy not financing growth through debt was stagnating. When we handed over government, Hungary recorded the strongest economic growth figures in Europe.<\/p>\n
\u2018People believed our political opponents when they promised hope, change, and a future in which everyone would be better off\u2019<\/p>\n
Yet the public concluded that this was not enough\u2014that the country was capable of achieving even more. People believed our political opponents when they promised hope, change, and a future in which everyone would be better off.<\/p>\n
And then now let\u2019s ask: What has been happening in Hungary since the change of government? Nothing. The government tells the people that everything is fine. Change is coming. EU money is coming. The forint is strong. We are introducing the euro. The economy will grow. Everyone will live better. According to opinion polls, the majority of Hungarians are truly optimistic today. Many believe that within a few years they will have much more money, better jobs, and an easier life. I would be most happy if that were the case. But politics is not a demand service. The economy is not run by hopes. It is run by numbers.<\/p>\n
In parliament, we see nothing but political theatre. Fidel Castro-length speeches, threats, stigmatization of the opponent, political performances. Something happens every day that can be discussed. We just don\u2019t talk about what is happening in the world around us. There is no substantive discussion about how Hungary is preparing for another rise in energy prices. There is no substantive debate about how we are preparing for the long-term weakness of the German economy. There is no substantive debate about how we are preparing for the effects of artificial intelligence on the labour market. There is no substantive debate about how we want to preserve Hungary\u2019s competitiveness in a completely new global economic environment. Instead, they are trying to give the impression that waiting is enough. That the EU funds will arrive and everything will be resolved.<\/p>\n
Everyone is happy with the EU money. I see that we will mostly buy foreign assets from it and foreigners will make large investments. This is better than not having it, but it still does not save us; there will be no sustainable growth. The quarrel with Chinese companies has begun; the German layoffs will catch up sooner or later. Substantive negotiations with the Americans have ceased. In exchange for EU money, the government has made commitments that it is still hiding now, but it will be forced to fulfil them in the coming years. Tax reform, pension reform, and energy reform are coming.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, there is a lot of juggling going on regarding the introduction of the euro as well. Everyone is happy about that too, although there are warning signs from Croatia or Bulgaria. Foreign investors and credit rating agencies are also happy\u2014that is why the forint is strong. It is good for a holiday, but by the time you get home, the company you work at, which is set up for export, may go bankrupt.<\/p>\n
This detail is not so important to investors because they are happy with the process of introducing the euro, and they value the necessarily related expenditure reductions and income increases.<\/p>\n
According to the currently known criteria, 5 per cent should be cut in the coming years for the currency change. We cut 2 per cent, but people still voted for the change. If they do it, people will be outraged; if they don\u2019t, credit rating agencies and investors will be. In the first case, austerity will come naturally; in the second, financial market pressure and speculation will force austerity. Checkmate\u2014just to react to the current political ordeal, too.<\/p>\n
How do others see us Hungarians from the outside at the moment? I mean, those foreigners who don\u2019t follow the absolute movie theatre. Roughly like this: We have signed up as students in the declining European economy, which we hope will give us more resources, while the centre has fewer and fewer and more imperial goals are consuming it.<\/p>\n
In the Western world, everyone is trying to maintain an artificially optimistic atmosphere as crucial elections are approaching. The same experiment is taking place in Hungary after the elections. Meanwhile, everyone is actually preparing for another conflict and economic shock.<\/p>\n
All this time, the new government party believes with sacred conviction that the artificially inflated trust built on daydreams is sustainable, that optimism is tantamount to theatre, and that the government does not have to make decisions it does not want to make. The prime minister is burying his head in the sand when it comes to governance, filling the space with the dismantling of democracy, the preparation of the constitutional drama, and the political witch hunt.<\/p>\n
The direct consequence of this approach is that sooner or later the big fish will corner them in Hungary. We have seen this before. If the room for manoeuvre runs out, there is nothing left but austerity and privatization. I think the prime minister, in his blind hatred of the right, still does not see or sense how speculators, bureaucrats, and multinationals will trap him and his party.<\/p>\n
\u2018When trouble hits, the masses will rightly conclude that they have been duped\u2019<\/p>\n
In the meantime, they have stirred up a constitutional crisis. The illegal removal of the President of the Republic means that all decisions of the next President of the Republic are invalid and can therefore be undone. A new constitution, laws, appointments\u2014all are formally flawed. Meanwhile, an economic superstorm is approaching. What makes the situation particularly dangerous is that the government is irrationally harbouring hugely positive expectations in this increasingly deteriorating international environment.<\/p>\n
This mix is \u200b\u200bmore dangerous than a traditional crisis because when trouble hits, the masses will rightly conclude that they have been duped. They have become victims of a complete scam show, in which their livelihood, security, and peace of mind are at stake. This is not what they were promised; they were led to believe the opposite; the reality was hidden from them, and while they turn away from the government, it tries to thwart its own opponents and social resistance with increasingly harsh authoritarian means. Needless to say, such a situation is tragic because Hungary\u2019s opponents are waiting for nothing more than such a situation to arise in the country.<\/p>\n
What Can We Do Now?<\/p>\n
First, we must deal with a dangerous illusion. A country cannot be made strong by an optimism that ignores its problems. It can be confident and hopeful only if it recognizes the problem in time and has a serious plan to solve it.<\/p>\n
Hungarian history is all about this. Our greatest successes have always been achieved when we dared to face reality. And our greatest tragedies have always occurred when we believed that someone else would solve our problems for us. Our task now is not to create panic. And it is not to sell false hope. But it is to remain sober.<\/p>\n
The coming years will be difficult. Not only for Hungary. For the whole of Europe. But difficult times have a peculiarity. It is at such times that it is decided which nations are swept along by events, and which can shape their own destiny. We always wanted to be among the latter. That is why we built a national economy. That is why we built a strong state. That is why we insisted on our sovereignty. Not because we believed that all crises could be avoided. But because we knew that in times of crisis, only a nation that is capable of making independent decisions can survive. I don\u2019t think otherwise today.<\/p>\n
\u2018A country cannot be made strong by an optimism that ignores its problems\u2019<\/p>\n
The world has not become simpler. It has become tougher. The competition has become sharper. The room for manoeuvre has become smaller. That is why today there is an even greater need for calm. There is an even greater need for national cohesion. And above all, there is an even greater need to start not from momentary political interests, but from reality.<\/p>\n
Reality can be argued about. Its consequences can be delayed. It can be covered up with communication for a while. But it cannot be defeated. Reality will always return sooner or later. And when it returns, the question will no longer be who was right, but who was prepared for it, that is, who has a plan to save the country.<\/p>\n
We on the national side are no longer burdened with governance, but with the responsibility we bear for our country. The tragedy is not if we lose the election, but if our country is lost. We must stand up; we must warn. Those who have been deceived and led will be disappointed; we must help. We must hold together. We must show our strength, our values, reorganize ourselves, and be ready so that if things go wrong, the people of Hungary will have every right to think that they have always been able to count on us and can therefore turn to us with confidence in the future.<\/p>\n
Related articles:<\/p>\n
\n At a time when public debate is increasingly polarized and superficial, Hungarian Conservative remains committed to depth, intellectual honesty, and independent conservative thought.\n <\/p>\n
\n Producing high-quality journalism requires resources. Your contribution helps us expand our coverage, reach new audiences, and keep our content accessible.\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n Please consider supporting our mission.\n <\/p>\n