{"id":176162,"date":"2026-08-03T07:54:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T07:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/176162\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T07:54:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T07:54:16","slug":"deja-vu-in-iran-trump-keeps-threatening-major-escalation-only-to-walk-it-all-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/176162\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9j\u00e0 vu in Iran: Trump keeps threatening major escalation, only to walk it all back"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 US President Donald Trump has played this hand before during the 5-month-old Iran war.<\/p>\n

It starts with a grim warning to Tehran that he\u2019s on the cusp<\/a> of ordering US forces to \u201cobliterate\u201d its power plants or seize key parts of its oil industry if its leaders don\u2019t quickly agree to US terms to end the war. It ends with him edging away with a last-minute declaration, sometimes at the behest of Gulf allies, that he\u2019s going to give diplomacy<\/a> more time.<\/p>\n

The hardball strategy \u2014 one that Trump honed during his years competing in New York\u2019s real estate scene and has employed in politics \u2014 aims to create movement in negotiation through pressure and chaos. But the tactic is facing a challenge with an Iranian theocracy that believes it holds a higher threshold for strategic pain than Washington.<\/p>\n

While Trump has reveled in the US military decimating layers of Tehran\u2019s leadership and devastating its air force and navy, Iran is betting it can outlast Trump as he faces diminished stockpiles of munitions and the difficulty of executing a war that is unpopular with the American electorate ahead of November\u2019s midterm election<\/p>\n

The latest episode began on Friday when Trump, surrounded by his Cabinet, grimly declared that he was \u201closing faith\u201d in negotiations with Iran and warned that the US military \u201c will be hitting them very hard.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Hours later, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt heightened speculation in Washington \u2014 and around the globe \u2014 with an ominous statement asserting \u201cIran will continue to pay until they come to the table in, what President Trump deems, a meaningful way.\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\"\"<\/a>
\n\t\tMotorbikes drive past a billboard showing a graphic of a man wearing a shirt showing the face of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed during a joint US and Israeli strike on February 28, with words calling upon the avengers of Imam Hussein, one of Shiite Islam\u2019s most beloved historical saints, in a square in downtown Tehran, Iran, August 1, 2026. (AP Photo\/Vahid Salemi)<\/p>\n

But by late Saturday night, Trump declared on social media that there were signs of progress on reaching an agreement and he was calling off a plan to carry out new, massive strikes for the time being.<\/p>\n

The next day Trump emphasized that requests to give diplomacy more time from unnamed Iranian officials as well as leaders from Gulf allies \u2014 Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates \u2014 were key to his about-face.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would have been disastrous for them. And they didn\u2019t want us to do it,\u201d Trump said of Iran as he spoke to reporters on his way back to Washington from a weekend at his New Jersey golf club. \u201cAnd frankly, Saudi Arabia didn\u2019t want it either. They thought that a deal is imminent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Critics see Trump reaching for a reset button in this pattern<\/p>\n

Trump may still come to the conclusion that a massive escalation in the conflict with Iran is necessary.<\/p>\n

But critics say his hesitation also may reflect an unspoken understanding inside the administration that US military might alone may not be enough to compel Iran to back down and bring an end to a now months-long war that Trump had earlier downplayed as a weeks-long excursion.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think what we\u2019re seeing here is a president who has an approach that\u2019s just rather erratic,\u201d said Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, on CBS News\u2019s \u201cFace the Nation.\u201d \u201cAt this point, he\u2019s trying to get us back to February. And I think if he could \u2014 if he had a big reset button he could hit \u2014 he would certainly take that option.\u201d<\/p>\n

There have been several moments over the course of the conflict when Trump has demonstrated his proclivity for the bellicose only to back off at the last minute, while declaring his threats spurred progress.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"<\/a>
\n\t\tAn F\/A-18E Super Hornet takes off from the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), stationed in the Middle East, in a photo released July 10, 2026. (US Navy photo)<\/p>\n

In early April, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an announcement that came less than two hours before a deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power plants \u2014 strikes he said would mean \u201ca whole civilization will die.\u201d<\/p>\n

After days of dire threats against Iran, Trump announced on May 18 he was holding off on a major planned military strike because \u201cserious negotiations\u201d were underway, crediting Gulf allies for persuading him to show restraint.<\/p>\n

Then in June, Trump threatened to hit Iran \u201cVERY HARD\u201d and seize Iran\u2019s energy base on Kharg Island to \u201cassume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets,\u201d he wrote on social media, only to call off the strikes in a later post after claiming that peace negotiations had progressed with high-level Iranian leaders.<\/p>\n

Left unsaid by the president was that such an endeavor would require US boots on the ground in Iran \u2014 a risky proposition politically for a president who campaigned on avoiding foreign entanglements and criticized past administrations for getting bogged down in endless wars.<\/p>\n

Call with Saudi crown prince affected Trump\u2019s decision<\/p>\n

With this latest episode, Trump suggested that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a particularly important role in his turning away from escalating the fight.<\/p>\n

The US president spoke by phone with the de facto leader of the kingdom on Saturday before announcing he was halting strikes that he later boasted would have been one of the biggest US operations since World War II.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"<\/a>
\n\t\tPresident Donald Trump welcomes Saudi Arabia\u2019s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House, November 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo\/Evan Vucci)<\/p>\n

The crown prince conveyed that an escalation in fighting could have a severe impact on the global economy if Tehran responded to a new US bombardment by targeting some of the United States\u2019s Gulf allies, according to a person briefed on the call who was not authorized to comment publicly and requested anonymity.<\/p>\n

Saudi officials, the person added, have underscored in their engagements with the Trump administration that the kingdom is in a good position to defend itself against further potential Iranian strikes \u2014 as are fellow energy titans Qatar and the United Arab Emirates \u2014 but that Kuwait could be more vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.<\/p>\n

As Trump threatens escalation, Republicans face tough polling<\/p>\n

Trump has insisted that November\u2019s midterm elections aren\u2019t shaping his approach to the conflict that\u2019s spurred unease across the global economy.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s certainly on the minds of his fellow Republicans.<\/p>\n

About two-thirds of US adults say the war with Iran, which began February 28, has not been worthwhile, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week. That includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37 percent of Republicans.<\/p>\n

One of Trump\u2019s most outspoken allies on Capitol Hill suggested on Sunday the administration needs to modulate its approach on Iran.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"<\/a>
\n\t\tUS President Donald Trump walks to board Air Force One at Morristown Municipal Airport, in Morristown, NJ, August 2, 2026, en route to return to Washington. (AP Photo\/Jacquelyn Martin)<\/p>\n

Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy said on NBC\u2019s \u201cMeet the Press\u201d that the debate in Washington has lost perspective on the devastation the US military has inflicted on Iran since the start of the war.<\/p>\n

Still, the Republican lawmaker acknowledged that further escalating the conflict could lead to a further surge in already elevated energy prices and \u201ca lot of inflation for the American people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kennedy made the case that tightening sanctions and targeting Iran\u2019s nuclear program \u2014 rather than escalating the conflict \u2014 might be the best bet for the moment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re all hellish choices,\u201d Kennedy said. \u201cBut for the moment I\u2019d maintain the status quo.\u201d<\/p>\n


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The war with Iran has been draining for all of us in Israel. But when I heard about a high casualty incident \u2013 ballistic missile impacts in Arad and Dimona that left nearly 200 people wounded \u2013 I drank a cup of coffee, packed a bag, and headed south.<\/p>\n

There, I spoke with Shilgit, the head of an after-school program for underprivileged youth. Standing outside her destroyed center, Shilgit said it was a miracle that no children were hurt and spoke about the community coming together in the hours since.<\/p>\n

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