This year, the U.S. is celebrating 250 years as an independent nation. But, as Jamie Dimon laid out in his 2026 annual letter to shareholders, there are large, unresolved, multi-year risks ahead (1, 2).<\/p>\n
“I think some of the larger risks are much like tectonic plates,” wrote the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, “always moving and periodically causing earthquakes and volcanoes when they crash into each other.”<\/p>\n
While it’s not all doom and gloom \u2014 he pointed to bright spots such as increasing fiscal stimulus and AI-driven capital spending \u2014 he also outlined eight major risks that could hurt the economy.<\/p>\n
The greatest of those risks, Dimon wrote, is geopolitics \u2014 from Russia’s war in Ukraine (going on four years) and now a war in Iran.<\/p>\n
Given the complexity of today’s global supply chains, conflicts can still impact economies that aren’t directly involved in those conflicts. The war in Iran, for example, has caused fuel prices to soar and created severe shortages in regions dependent on the flow of liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, such as China, India, Japan and Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
“Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects,” wrote Dimon. “And it’s not just energy, it’s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium.”<\/p>\n
Geopolitical risk is compounded by other risks, such as trade wars. While Dimon wrote that U.S. tariffs had “only minor effects” on inflation, he also said “trade battles are clearly not over.” This is creating a realignment of global economic partnerships \u2014 and the long-term implications of this are unclear.<\/p>\n
According to Dimon, other risks include a strained relationship with China, cyber risks in an AI-driven world, elevated global deficits and debt, a highly leveraged private credit market and the fact that private equity firms “have not taken greater advantage of healthy markets to take their companies public.” High asset prices and low credit spreads also create risk if anything goes wrong.<\/p>\n
Read More: How to apply Dave Ramsey\u2019s 7 Baby Steps to your own life<\/a><\/p>\n Dimon warns that protracted foreign conflicts could lead to a recession. While in certain scenarios a recession can reduce inflation, in other scenarios it can lead to stagflation, which is a toxic combination of high unemployment, high inflation and stagnate growth.<\/p>\n “The skunk at the party \u2014 and it could happen in 2026 \u2014 would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” Dimon wrote. “This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop.”<\/p>\n While it’s unclear how long the conflict in Iran will drag on, “a prolonged period of higher energy prices will add markedly to business costs and raise consumer price inflation, with adverse consequences for growth,” according to the OECD Economic Outlook for March 2026 (3, 4).<\/p>\n The OECD projects that annual GDP growth in the U.S. will moderate from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, “as strong AI-related investment is gradually offset by a slowdown in real income growth and consumer spending.”<\/p>\n Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, told CNBC that a lot depends on the duration and spread of the war in Iran. “The more it spreads, the more stagflationary it is for the global economy.” If the conflict drags on \u2014 and if it widens across the Middle East \u2014 it could “fuel inflation, disrupt supply chains and undermine growth (5, 6).”<\/p>\n On the other hand, Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, expects inflation to trend downward \u2014 once energy spikes have passed. “Meaningful slack in the labor market and broader economy should ensure inflation resumes converging to the Fed’s 2% target after the 2026 inflation spike,” he said in a forecast (7, 8).<\/p>\n In the wake of the Iran conflict, consumer sentiment fell 6% in March. “Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%,” according to March data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers (9, 10).<\/p>\n While you may not be able to solve world peace, there are still steps you can take to protect your finances if we head into a period of stagflation. Even if we don’t, it doesn’t hurt to shore up your finances.<\/p>\n Stagflation could reduce your overall purchasing power, meaning your take-home pay won’t cover as much as it used to. Yet, less than half (47%) of Americans have enough money saved to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense, according to a Bankrate survey (11, 12).<\/p>\n If you don’t have an emergency fund, start by putting aside $1,000 and then building that up to cover about three to six months of expenses. If you already have an emergency fund, you may find it needs a top-up to account for rising prices.<\/p>\n Stagflation could also reduce your investment returns. Financial professionals generally don’t recommend panic-selling stocks and bonds during periods of market volatility. But this could be a good time to look over your portfolio to ensure it’s well diversified, which could help to manage risk in challenging times.<\/p>\n It could also be a good time to curb discretionary spending and avoid big-ticket purchases. If all this uncertainty is causing decision-fatigue, it could be worth sitting down with your financial advisor to develop a plan that could help weather potential financial storms.<\/p>\n Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise\u2019s best stories and exclusive interviews first \u2014 clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.<\/a><\/p>\n We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines<\/a>.<\/p>\n JPMorgan Chase (1, 2)<\/a>; OECD (3, 4)<\/a>; YouTube (5, 6)<\/a>; Morningstar (7, 8)<\/a>; University of Michigan (9, 10)<\/a>; Bankrate (11, 12)<\/a><\/p>\n This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This year, the U.S. is celebrating 250 years as an independent nation. 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