When a professional political operative describes an election as \u201cnationalized,\u201d it means the outcome could have consequences far beyond the locality in which it occurs and therefore is drawing outside attention and resources.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s congressional elections in California are a prime example, with two distinct and unusual aspects.<\/p>\n
First and most obviously, Democrats are hoping to gain as many as five California seats in the House of Representatives due to a partisan gerrymander of the state\u2019s 52 districts last year. Thus the outcome in California could determine whether their party regains control of the House, where Republicans now hold a paper-thin majority.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, outside the five districts that Democrats hope to switch, there are safely Democratic districts where progressive candidates are jousting with mainstream rivals, a subset of the national party\u2019s ideological conflict.<\/p>\n
One example is the duel between progressive state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, president of the Bay Area Regional Transit board, over the east Bay Area congressional seat Eric Swalwell held until resigning amid allegations of sexual misconduct.<\/p>\n
Another is in San Francisco, where state Sen. Scott Wiener faces San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan for the seat that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is vacating. While both are self-proclaimed progressives, there are specific issues dividing them, such as housing. Wiener has long championed making housing easier to build, but in San Francisco resisting development is a bedrock cause for those on the city\u2019s left.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s another conflict on California\u2019s November ballot that\u2019s become nationalized: Proposition 40, which would impose a 5% tax on the wealth of California\u2019s roughly 200 billionaires. Once again, it\u2019s on two distinct levels.<\/p>\n
First, it tests a concept of taxation that, if enacted, could spread to other states or even become a national issue. It has drawn attention in national political media and from national political figures, such as progressive icon Bernie Sanders.<\/p>\n
Secondly, Prop. 40 has divided California Democrats and their political allies, somewhat mirroring the party\u2019s aforementioned national conflict.<\/p>\n
Attacking the wealthy is a long-held tenet of left-leaning politics. In California, progressive politicians see Prop. 40 as an embodiment of that attitude. However, not-so-progressive Democrats \u2014 such as Gov. Gavin Newsom and Xavier Becerra, Newsom\u2019s almost-certain successor \u2014 are concerned about driving high-income taxpayers out of the state and undermining the state budget.<\/p>\n
The state\u2019s unions are also divided. While Prop. 40 is sponsored by SEIU-UHW, a union of healthcare workers \u2014 and it would direct most of its new revenue to healthcare programs \u2014 the California Teachers Association and other influential unions are opposed because of that financial slant.<\/p>\n
Prop. 40 joins three other California ballot measures in the last half-century that became nationalized: Proposition 13, the state\u2019s iconic tax limits adopted in 1978, sparked a national tax revolt; Proposition 187, passed in 1994, would have denied public services to undocumented immigrants had it not been overturned in the courts \u2014 it foretold an immigration policy debate that continues to rage \u2014 and Proposition 209, approved in 1996, prohibited affirmative action preferences by race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in college admissions, public employment and public contracting.<\/p>\n
Were it to pass, Prop. 40 could also reverberate nationally, but its approval remains uncertain as the 2026 campaign season narrows. Mail voting will begin in just seven weeks.<\/p>\n
Seemingly countless millions of dollars are being spent on the measure, particularly by its wealthy opponents. And the latest poll, conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, found 48% of likely voters support it, 41% oppose it and 11% are undecided.<\/p>\n
That translates into a maybe \u2014 maybe a win, maybe a loss and maybe a national impact.<\/p>\n
CALmatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When a professional political operative describes an election as \u201cnationalized,\u201d it means the outcome could have consequences 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