MONTREAL, Aug 22 (Reuters) – When U.S. President Donald Trump levied 50% tariffs on Canadian steel in June last year, a steel factory \u2060in \u2060Canada’s mostly French-speaking province of Quebec lost about a third of its orders \u2060for bolts and fasteners in less than a week.<\/p>\n
The factory owner – The Heico Companies – froze hiring, closed a plant in the region and laid off several dozen people, said David Jeannotte, \u200ban operations director, whose own brother lost his job. The cuts were part of 140 layoffs by the company, mainly in Quebec.<\/p>\n
The factory’s troubles reflect broader anxiety over the fallout from Trump’s trade war in Quebec, which is due to hold a provincial election by October 5. But while some \u200cprevious economic slowdowns in the province prompted an increase in separatist \u200csentiment, polls show that this time around, support for an independent Quebec is at its lowest level in decades, at about 30%.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as Trump will be in his chair, I don\u2019t feel that we even need to talk about that,\u201d Jeannotte said.<\/p>\n
Others in the region are echoing Jeannotte\u2019s \u2060concerns, saying the threat Trump \u2060poses to Canada means the best way to preserve Quebec’s unique French culture is to stay within Canada — at least for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Trump’s threats to make \u200bCanada the 51st state and the whiplash from his tariff policy have spurred an outpouring of Canadian patriotism in Quebec, a province that regularly threatens to break away and has had two previous referendums on the issue.<\/p>\n
As the country’s only majority French-speaking province, Quebec has a long-established separatist movement that argues independence from Canada is the best way to protect its distinct culture and language. Quebec has never formally signed the Canadian Constitution and separatists argue French Canadians are often overlooked by the English-dominated majority.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
The separatist Parti Quebecois currently holds a slim lead in provincial election polls and a win would \u200bmark the party\u2019s return to power after a dozen years. But analysts say a vote for the party would be more about disappointment with the ruling party than an endorsement of the PQ\u2019s independence platform.<\/p>\n
While the PQ is committed to \u2060a \u2060third independence referendum if it wins, leader Paul St-Pierre \u2060Plamondon vowed that won’t happen while Trump is president, a \u200btacit recognition of falling support for independence. Quebec narrowly voted to stay in Canada in a 1995 referendum, spurring a national reckoning that resulted in the federal government asking the Supreme Court to clarify the legal \u200bprocedure for separation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, Plamondon said in a post on X that deciding \u2060Quebec\u2019s political fate \u201cmust not be hijacked by the upheaval of American politics, the outbursts of an unpredictable president or by a campaign of fear.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
The explicit acknowledgment of the risk Trump poses to Quebec’s independence movement aligns with a broader pattern in which the U.S. president’s policies and rhetoric, including his stance on Greenland, have undermined separatist causes elsewhere.<\/p>\n
In both Scotland and Catalonia, efforts to break away from the United Kingdom and Spain have been complicated by uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariff threats and criticism of NATO.<\/p>\n
A delayed Quebec sovereignty vote would be one less headache for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who himself upended polls favoring the Conservatives to win a national election last year after promising to be a tough negotiator with Trump.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Carney faces another separatist movement in oil-rich Alberta, which has its own referendum scheduled for mid-October. While conservative Alberta\u2019s burgeoning independence movement aligns \u2060with Trump\u2019s brand of conservatism, Quebecers have largely supported the rest of Canada in pressing back against the U.S. president\u2019s tariffs and threats of annexation.<\/p>\n
\u201cPostponing a referendum is unfortunately a choice \u2060we have to accept,\u201d said St\u00e9phane B\u00e9dard, a former interim leader of the PQ. \u201cQuebec is stronger than it\u2019s ever been, but the external factor of Trump has created a lot of insecurity, so we have to be realistic.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump is more disliked in Quebec, arguably the country’s most progressive province, than anywhere else in Canada.<\/p>\n
According to August data from the pollster Angus Reid, only 10% of Quebecers have a favourable view of the president, and even a deal to lower tariffs is unlikely to reverse public opinion.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump represents everything that Quebec has fought against for the last 60 years in terms of creating a modern, progressive society,\u201d said Jonathan Kalles, former Quebec adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trump’s conservative policies as well as his administration’s comments that the province’s French language requirements are a “trade irritant” are both unpopular.<\/p>\n
The financial impact from his policies is also strongly felt in Quebec and economists note the province is among the worst hit by Trump’s tariffs, given its concentration of industries like steel and aluminum.<\/p>\n
A March report from the Bank of Montreal estimated Quebec’s economy would grow about 1% this year, compared to more than 2% for Alberta and Saskatchewan.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jeannotte, of factory near Montreal, said that before Trump levied tariffs on Canadian steel, about 90% of its products were destined for the U.S., with its bolts used in New York\u2019s Empire State Building. Jeannotte said some staffers work without pay on some days and others have \u2060voluntarily reduced their hours.<\/p>\n
Still, some Quebec separatists say independence remains critical, even now.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the separatist Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montr\u00e9al, said Carney’s decision to eliminate a tax that helps finance Canadian programming would cut funding for Quebec’s French-language productions, highlighting that as an example of why the province should become independent. Ottawa has pledged to replace the tax with government funding.<\/p>\n
\u201cCanada is not capable of defending Quebec’s interests,\u201d Alepin said. \u201c(Quebec) has to be at the negotiating table and to do that, we have to be a country.\u201d<\/p>\n
Vincent Rainville, a fourth-generation Quebec dairy farmer who owns more than 250 cows, disagreed, saying Trump’s policies have complicated efforts to strengthen Quebec’s economy and that a \u200bnational response is required. Nearly half of Canada\u2019s dairy farms are in Quebec. \u00a0<\/p>\n
“It’s not just Quebec, it’s all of Canada and all our industries that have been affected,” he said.\u00a0\u201cIf I supported an independent \u200bQuebec, I would not want to talk about that policy now.”<\/p>\n
(Reporting by Maria Cheng; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Deepa Babington)<\/p>\n
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