Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world\u2019s largest asset manager with $14 trillion under management, delivered a stark warning about the global economy amid the ongoing conflict in Iran in an exclusive interview with El Pa\u00eds during his European tour in Madrid. Known as one of the most powerful figures in global finance, Fink emphasized that the length and intensity of the Iran war could have far-reaching consequences for growth, energy markets, and investment worldwide.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe impact on global growth and financial markets depends entirely on how long the conflict lasts,\u201d Fink told El Pa\u00eds. \u201cIf the war ends, will Iran cease being a country that exports hostility and spreads instability throughout the region? Or will it continue funding groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis? There are different scenarios, each with very different consequences for the world economy.\u201d When asked which scenario he considers most probable, he responded, \u201cIf the outcome of this conflict brings more security to the Middle East and Iran opens itself to the international community, oil prices will be far lower than they are today. However, if the war ends but the country remains hostile to its neighbors, energy prices will continue to rise, and inflation will increase. It\u2019s difficult to predict what will happen, but I prefer to be optimistic. I believe a solution favorable to all parties will be found, that normal oil exports will resume, and that prices will fall. The regime has been disastrous for its citizens. In 1979, as a prominent Gulf leader told me last week, Iran was much richer than Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates. Today, the reality is entirely different. I trust that a solution will be reached, that the country can be rebuilt, and that this will benefit both Iranians and the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fink made it clear that responsibility is not solely on Iran. \u201cYes, the United States also has responsibility. That is why Washington has presented a plan to achieve peace,\u201d he said, addressing the balance of accountability in the conflict. When questioned about the risk of a prolonged war triggering a market crash, Fink noted, \u201cAs I mentioned in my letter, if you believe in the future of artificial intelligence and the opportunities it brings, many companies are trading at very low multiples, similar to after the financial crisis, because their profits have grown faster than their stock prices. Now, if the war lasts more than a year, energy prices will rise even more, and the world economy could enter a recession. In that scenario, markets would fall sharply\u2014not due to valuations, but because circumstances have changed completely.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fink emphasized the importance of a long-term investment perspective. \u201cThe focus should not be on what happens tomorrow, but on ten years ahead. If a Spanish citizen had invested in the local stock market 20 years ago, their wealth would have doubled. But if everyone focuses on fear, it becomes difficult to seize these opportunities. In Spain, more than a trillion euros are held in bank deposits. People keep their money in the bank because they do not trust the potential of their country. To achieve greater prosperity, one cannot focus on whether the war will last two weeks or two months; we have to think long-term and invest in the country through capital markets.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fink\u2019s influence extends far beyond markets. He explained BlackRock\u2019s engagement in Ukraine, highlighting collaboration with the government \u201cwithout any profit motive, preparing the ground for peace, and creating a platform where public and private capital can invest safely in the country\u2019s reconstruction. We must ensure that this reconstruction brings prosperity to as many citizens as possible. Ukraine has a long history of corruption, and we aim to rebuild it for the people, in a fair and secure way, to encourage foreign investment.\u201d<\/p>\n
The CEO also discussed the evolving nature of globalization. \u201cGlobalization, as structured after World War II, made sense when the United States helped reconstruct countries and established asymmetric trade agreements, where Americans paid tariffs while partners accessed the U.S. market freely. That framework brought prosperity, but does it still make sense today? The answer is no. Those countries are now stronger, and it is time to shift toward more symmetrical trade relationships. We have globalized everything\u2014chips, rare minerals, defense. Europe, as part of NATO, should invest more seriously in its defense, as promised at the organization\u2019s creation. This is a recalibration of global systems, not inherently positive or negative, but a reality of where the world and society stand today.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fink acknowledged the higher costs of autonomy but stressed long-term benefits. \u201cSelf-sufficiency is more expensive than globalization because the latter allowed goods to be produced where they were cheapest. But now, U.S. or European production of semiconductors or critical minerals could reduce dependence on single suppliers. This is a process of rebalancing. It is not the death of globalization; it is an adaptation to new needs. Autonomy in areas like security and artificial intelligence is costlier, but over time, it can be deflationary if each country can supply its own essential needs.\u201d<\/p>\n
On inequality, Fink highlighted the importance of market participation. \u201cThe growing gap comes partly because many citizens cannot or do not invest long-term and keep money in bank accounts. In the U.S., around 60% of citizens invest in stocks, sharing in the country\u2019s growth. In Europe, this proportion is lower, and the lack of unified capital markets and a banking union plays a role. Investing in markets is not just for the wealthy\u2014it increases the probability of success for ordinary citizens.\u201d<\/p>\n
Artificial intelligence, Fink emphasized, is not a distant phenomenon but a current reality reshaping society and energy demand. \u201cAI will transform jobs, energy needs, and social systems. People are anxious because change is uncertain, but we can mitigate that uncertainty by preparing today. The question is not whether AI will transform our lives but who will guide that transformation and how.\u201d<\/p>\n
BlackRock\u2019s strategy reflects its wide-ranging influence, combining traditional and alternative assets with technological platforms like Aladdin to manage risk. Fink dismissed concerns about private credit, noting that retail exposure is limited and structured transparently. \u201cThe risks of alternative assets are clearly outlined in the first page of the fund prospectus. The panic we see in markets comes from retail investors, not institutions. Those willing to invest for the long term will be rewarded with higher returns despite short-term volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n
He praised Spain\u2019s resilience and long-term growth. \u201cSpain is one of Europe\u2019s fastest-growing countries, with outstanding companies, banks, and infrastructure. It is a place of hope for Europe. Over the last decade, Spain has achieved remarkable progress, beyond the performance of any single government. Investors should recognize this and consider the opportunities in long-term capital markets rather than focusing on short-term fear.\u201d<\/p>\n
On BlackRock\u2019s future, Fink reaffirmed growth ambitions. \u201cWe aim to reach $35 billion in revenues by 2030, supporting clients, offering the best fiduciary management, and providing long-term investment solutions. Our growth is both organic and through strategic acquisitions, but the firm has achieved extraordinary scale without relying solely on purchases. In the last five years, we have grown assets under management by $5 trillion organically\u2014a feat unmatched by any European asset manager.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite being 74, Fink has no designated successor, yet BlackRock\u2019s results speak for themselves. In 2025, the firm increased revenue by 19% to $24.2 billion and profits by 17% to $7.7 billion. Fink has also guided the company through ESG and energy transition strategies, now focusing pragmatically on decarbonization technologies while addressing energy affordability and inequality.<\/p>\n
Fink\u2019s message to investors and governments is clear: the world is facing geopolitical and technological challenges, but with long-term planning, informed investment, and strategic preparation, prosperity can still be achieved. \u201cFocus on ten years ahead,\u201d he told El Pa\u00eds. \u201cThe short-term noise sells newspapers, but it is harmful for investing. The world will continue to grow. BlackRock will grow with it, leveraging technology and insights to serve all clients, regardless of size. That is the essence of our success.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world\u2019s largest asset manager with $14 trillion under management, 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