{"id":221122,"date":"2026-09-09T12:45:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T12:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/221122\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T12:45:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T12:45:24","slug":"the-gop-was-confident-about-keeping-its-senate-majority-now-the-fight-for-control-is-wide-open-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/221122\/","title":{"rendered":"The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight for control is wide open"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON \u2013 Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate<\/a> heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump\u2019s term. But with less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is now up for grabs.<\/p>\n

Democrats have found themselves competing in states that once seemed beyond their reach as Trump\u2019s slipping approval ratings<\/a> and voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy create a difficult political environment for Republicans. But races Democrats once counted on winning have also become more complicated.<\/p>\n

It’s a battle that’s expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending across all races during the midterm campaign. The implications are huge for Trump\u2019s agenda and his ability to fill administration jobs and open court seats for the remainder of his term, as the Senate is empowered to confirm or block presidential nominees. <\/p>\n

Republicans say it’s unlikely for everything to break in Democrats’ favor, but they acknowledge they’re facing a difficult landscape. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota’s KELOLAND News last week that he does \u201cworry\u201d about losing the chamber.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m a realist,” Thune said. “I don\u2019t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it\u2019s a competitive environment right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats face a scrambled path to the majority<\/p>\n

Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. The original path had been to hold Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while winning back Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. But things have changed.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe now have multiple paths for the majority,\u201d Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said last month. \u201cWe found new states \u2014 Iowa, Texas \u2014 which people a year ago weren’t even paying attention to.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some of the states where Democrats were feeling most optimistic at the start of the election cycle, such as Michigan and Maine, have grown murkier. <\/p>\n

In Michigan, where there’s an open seat this fall, no GOP candidate has won a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The favorite of progressives narrowly defeated<\/a> moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, and feelings remain raw from a bruising contest that saw nearly $70 million spent against El-Sayed.<\/p>\n

Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race<\/a> by fewer than 20,000 votes, has an improved shot against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund \u2014 Senate Republicans’ spending PAC \u2014 added $6 million to its Michigan advertising investment after El-Sayed won, bringing their total spending to $51 million, the third-highest total.<\/p>\n

Democrats also saw a prime opportunity to finally defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024. <\/p>\n

Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June, but he left the race<\/a> the next month over a sexual assault allegation that he denies. Democratic delegates in late July chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former state legislative leader, to replace him. <\/p>\n

Jackson has been forced to play catch-up<\/a>. Collins and aligned super PACs have spent almost $80 million so far, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and reserved close to $45 million since he became the nominee.<\/p>\n

As one path narrowed for Democrats, others widened<\/p>\n

Democrats increasingly see a real possibility in Texas, a state that has been an elusive goal for decades, and other GOP-led states including Iowa, Alaska and Ohio. <\/p>\n

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted<\/a> four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn to win the GOP nomination. Senate GOP leadership backed Cornyn, seeing him as the stronger general election candidate. <\/p>\n

Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions<\/a>, including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted. <\/p>\n

Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising since the May runoff, compared to less than $3 million by pro-Paxton groups. The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10 million<\/a> on TV and digital ads to help Paxton \u2014 the first major general election investment by MAGA Inc. for the midterms. Senate GOP leaders had petitioned Trump’s political team to spend some of the more than $400 million it had last month to help Paxton.<\/p>\n

Democrats have also upped their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, all states currently held by Republicans. The GOP, meanwhile, is feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire as well as Michigan, while spending more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska. <\/p>\n

The expanded map has upped the anticipated total spending this cycle. AdImpact in June projected $3.4 billion in advertising spending on Senate races, a significant increase from the $2.8 billion the ad spending firm projected in the fall of 2025. <\/p>\n

Why more states are in play than expected<\/p>\n

Democrats’ path has widened in part because of Trump’s slumping job approval, notably on handling the economy, which was at 32%<\/a> according to an AP-NORC poll in July \u2014 down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after he took office. <\/p>\n

Trump’s trade policies and the war in Iran, with its corresponding inflated fuel costs, have added to the economic uncertainty for voters less than two months before Election Day.<\/p>\n

\u201cThings still cost too much. And so we\u2019ve got to work on that issue,” Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated Press. \u201cWe understand that and we know that\u2019s real.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable last month. Husted is looking to fend off a comeback from former Sen. Sherrod Brown in another key matchup for both parties. <\/p>\n

During the discussion on housing, one attendee told Husted that costs were \u201cskyrocketing\u201d in part because of uncertainty around tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cUncertainty is the killer to this economy,” said Dean Windham, a real estate developer who previously ran for office as a Republican. <\/p>\n

Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump\u2019s policies while confronting concerns about their economic impact.<\/p>\n

In Michigan, where Trump\u2019s tariffs on Canada have become a central issue, Rogers has backed the president\u2019s approach while leaving room for disagreement.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Trump is right to put America First \u2014 and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution,\u201d Rogers said in a recent statement.<\/p>\n

Republicans believe the math still favors them<\/p>\n

Even if Democrats hold every seat they currently control, they would need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the majority.<\/p>\n

Republicans are betting that those underlying advantages will matter more as Election Day approaches \u2014 particularly as Trump and the party turn their attention toward mobilizing voters who helped return him to the White House.<\/p>\n

Trump told reporters last week that he will \u201cbe making a lot of stops\u201d in the last 30 days before the election. <\/p>\n

This week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump is set to speak and top Senate candidates including Rogers and Husted are expected to attend.<\/p>\n

But Republicans acknowledge they have work to do.<\/p>\n

\u201cPolitics is local,\u201d Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said. He pointed to Trump\u2019s decision to import beef, which he said made farmers and ranchers \u201cfeel just like the administration pulled the rug right off from underneath\u201d them.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re hurt,” Rounds said. \u201cThey feel like they\u2019ve been let down.\u201d <\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

This story has been corrected to reflect that the GOP midterm convention is this week, not next week.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. <\/p>\n

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON \u2013 Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate heading into the final two years…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":219368,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[142],"tags":[6837,2694,98113,12,1065,12318,56474,902,6780,903,475,34528,6836,904,10955,524,51,34532,4654,68297,1194],"class_list":["post-221122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-john-thune","tag-abdul-el-sayed","tag-charles-schumer","tag-dean-windham","tag-donald-trump","tag-elections","tag-graham-platner","tag-haley-stevens","tag-james-talarico","tag-jim-jordan","tag-john-cornyn","tag-john-thune","tag-jon-husted","tag-kamala-harris","tag-ken-paxton","tag-mike-rogers","tag-mike-rounds","tag-politics","tag-sherrod-brown","tag-susan-collins","tag-troy-jackson","tag-washington-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@people\/117241152917091096","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}