{"id":38191,"date":"2026-04-22T17:05:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T17:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/38191\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T17:05:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T17:05:09","slug":"tesla-earnings-prediction-market-preview-what-will-elon-musk-say-tesla-nasdaqtsla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/38191\/","title":{"rendered":"Tesla Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say? – Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<\/a>TSLA<\/a>) reports first quarter earnings after the bell today, with a Q&A call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

The stock has rallied recently on Elon Musk\u2019s AI5 chip reveal<\/a> and a wider Robotaxi rollout into Dallas and Houston.<\/p>\n

But Polymarket only gives the company an 18% chance<\/a> of beating earnings. <\/p>\n

Words On The Board<\/p>\n

The real action is on a Kalshi market<\/a> where traders are pricing the specific words Musk and his team will say on the call. <\/p>\n

\u201cTerafab\u201d is at 89%. Tesla\u2019s proposed one-terawatt AI chip facility was explicitly excluded<\/a> from the $20 billion 2026 capex figure, likely because the project\u2019s estimated cost runs into the trillions. <\/p>\n

Short-seller Jim Chanos has mocked the project<\/a> on X: \u201cWho needs FSD and Robotaxis when you can spend $5-13T on AI chip fabs?! That\u2019s only 16-40% of US GDP.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reuters has reported Musk\u2019s team is already contacting suppliers, meaning any guidance tonight becomes the first real cost figure Wall Street can price.<\/p>\n

Auto Fundamentals<\/p>\n

\u201cFSD\u201d sits at 98% as class actions spanning<\/a> California, Australia and the Netherlands accuse Tesla of selling autonomy it never delivered. A live comment on Hardware 3 refunds could move the stock.<\/p>\n

\u201cCybertruck\u201d is at 59%. 2025 sales crashed roughly 48% year-over-year to about 20,000 units, and up to 1 in 5 trucks are being sold to related companies<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The Street\u2019s Take<\/p>\n

Wedbush\u2019s Dan Ives has a $600 target and this week called Tesla\u2019s stretch into earnings \u201ccode red,\u201d describing the stock<\/a> as at a \u201ccrossroads\u201d as \u201cbulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will take shape over the coming year.\u201d<\/p>\n

The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

Image: Shutterstock<\/p>\n

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a9 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports first quarter earnings after the bell today, with a Q&A call scheduled for 5:30…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38192,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[1638,3041,24401,213,202,203,212,17802,222,15597,24402],"class_list":{"0":"post-38191","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elon-musk","8":"tag-category-markets","9":"tag-category-prediction-markets","10":"tag-category-short-sellers","11":"tag-cms-wordpress","12":"tag-elon-musk","13":"tag-musk","14":"tag-pageisbzpro-bz","15":"tag-symbol-gm","16":"tag-symbol-tsla","17":"tag-symbol-tsm","18":"tag-tag-jim-chanos"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@people\/116449451961757981","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38191\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}