There\u2019s a direct correlation between a president\u2019s approval rating and the way his party performs at the midpoint of his term. Anything below 50% favorability portends political trouble; right now Trump\u2019s positive standing in polls hovers around a dismal 40%.<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the history part. Since World War II, the party out of the White House has gained an average of more than two dozen House seats in midterm elections. Democrats need to pick up just three to take control beginning in January. <\/p>\n
(While the Republican grip on the Senate seems weaker than just a few months ago, the GOP is still favored<\/a> to hang onto the chamber in November.)<\/p>\n There is, however, a looming threat causing nervousness among Democrats and their allies as they contemplate a celebratory fall, a landmine of sorts buried deep in the congressional election process.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s acquaint ourselves with Article 1, Section 5 of the Constitution.<\/a><\/p>\n The pertinent language written by the Framers states, \u201cEach House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.\u201d In other words, it\u2019s up to the House and Senate to acknowledge and abide by the will of voters as expressed in the election returns.<\/p>\n What could possibly go wrong?<\/p>\n Well, if you let your paranoia run wild, quite a lot. If the election outcome is close \u2014 and probably it would have to be very close \u2014 Republican lawmakers could theoretically seize on phony claims of fraud and effectively nullify the results of enough contests to deny Democrats control of the House.<\/p>\n There\u2019s plenty of skepticism that would or could ever take place. But if it were to happen, hello, national crisis!<\/a><\/p>\n Normally, we could count on the occupant of the White House to humbly submit to the election returns, even if it\u2019s a \u201cshellacking\u201d as President Obama called his walloping in the 2010 midterm<\/a> election, or a \u201cthumpin\u2019 \u201d as President George W. Bush described<\/a> his electoral spanking in 2006.<\/p>\n Not Trump. <\/p>\n This president has amply demonstrated the lengths to which he\u2019ll go to overturn an honest election, siccing a violent mob on lawmakers<\/a> certifying his 2020 defeat,<\/a> telling endless lies<\/a> and using the Justice Department to confiscate ballots<\/a> and intimidate innocent election officials<\/a> and others Trump deems his enemies.<\/a> <\/p>\n He strong-armed Texas into a highly unusual, highly partisan redrawing<\/a> of its congressional boundaries, an effort to net five seats<\/a> and lengthen the odds against a Democratic takeover. <\/p>\n The move<\/a> appears to have backfired, spurring voters in California<\/a> and, last week, Virginia<\/a> to redraw their state\u2019s political maps to more than offset Texas and boost Democrats in November. (The Virginia results are being contested in court.)<\/a> <\/p>\n Voters attend an Arlington Democrats redistricting vote watch party during a special election Tuesday in Virginia. A measure to redraw the state\u2019s congressional map was narrowly approved.<\/p>\n (Valerie Plesch\/Bloomberg via Getty Images)<\/p>\n That failure doesn\u2019t take away Trump\u2019s malign intent. And in the supine Speaker Mike Johnson,<\/a> he has the perfect handmaiden to undermine the midterm vote.<\/p>\n In 2020, Johnson was the lead author<\/a> of a Supreme Court brief<\/a> seeking to overturn the results in four states that Joe Biden had indisputably won. That speaks to Johnson\u2019s probity and integrity.<\/p>\n How would subversion of November\u2019s election take place?<\/p>\n One theory goes like this: When the balloting is over, Johnson could appoint a House committee packed with Trump\u2019s acolytes to investigate alleged voting irregularities. (And if you think Trump won\u2019t be bellowing the words \u201crigged\u201d and \u201cfraud\u201d<\/a> in the face of defeat, you\u2019ve either been in a coma or living on another planet for the last decade.)<\/p>\n Those hearings and the \u201cevidence\u201d they turn up could then be cited by election officials in key states \u2014 collaborators, if you will \u2014 as a reason to delay the certification of election results and block the seating of majority-making Democrats in the next Congress. In their place, the theory goes, Republicans could vote to fill those seats with GOP candidates who lost at the polls, keeping themselves in control.<\/p>\n Derek Muller, an election law expert, suggests that scenario is little more than a fever dream of doomsday devotees and overly nervous Nellies.<\/p>\n He said he\u2019d be very surprised if all the election results weren\u2019t certified by Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes, given the legal remedies available to prevent stalling and undue delay. And, Muller said, there is no assurance Republicans would march in lockstep behind a plan to prevent the seating of Democrats.<\/p>\n Thwarting a duly elected Democratic majority \u201cinvolves extraordinary coordination and precedents that have never occurred, with a unique convergence of factors,\u201d said Muller, who teaches law at Notre Dame \u2014 though, he added, if control of the House came down to, say, a single seat \u201call bets are off.\u201d<\/p>\n Far-fetched? Perhaps. Some of the spun-up theories surrounding November\u2019s election do sound a bit like a product of political science fiction. <\/p>\n But what kind of president picks a fight with the pope?<\/a> Plunges the world into crisis<\/a> by unilaterally going to war<\/a> with Iran with no exit plan?<\/a> Demolishes the East Wing <\/a>of the White House on an egotistical whim?<\/a><\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1777205534_999_.jpeg\")
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