Cracks are emerging within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s base ahead of Israel’s first election since the October 7 attack and the ensuing regional wars, with a new poll showing that 42 percent of his Likud party’s 2022 voters are no longer firmly committed to backing it again.<\/p>\n
The Channel 12 News poll<\/a>, released on Friday, reveals that only 58 percent of Likud voters from 2022 are planning on “definitely” casting their ballot for the party in the upcoming election. More than a quarter of past Likud voters \u2013 28 percent \u2013 said they would instead vote for another party.<\/p>\n The next election is set to take place in October. <\/p>\n Haaretz PodcastJewish life in polite Canada has become ‘a horror show of hatred’<\/p>\n play<\/p>\n Haaretz Podcast<\/p>\n Jewish life in polite Canada has become ‘a horror show of hatred’<\/p>\n Volume: 0.5<\/p>\n X1<\/p>\n total– : –time0:00<\/p>\n fast forward15<\/p>\n play<\/p>\n rewind15<\/p>\n In the last election, Likud won the largest share of votes, at 1.11 million, translating to 32 Knesset seats. If the poll results are reflected at the ballot box in October, some 312,000 Likud voters will support a different party \u2013 roughly eight or nine seats in the Knesset.<\/p>\n Even more concerning for Likud is where its former voters may go in 2026. According to the poll, while eight percent remain undecided and six percent said they would not vote, 21 percent of those who backed Likud in 2022 said they would support parties that oppose Netanyahu and could seek to form a coalition without him as prime minister. <\/p>\n Who will you vote for in the upcoming election? (% of previous Likud voters) LikudBeyahadUndecidedYashar Not votingYisrael BeiteinuOtzma Yehudit The ReservistsKahol Lavan Religious ZionismOther Channel 12<\/p>\n This includes 10 percent who said they would vote for Beyahad, the party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett<\/a>; six percent for former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party; and four percent for Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu.<\/p>\n A further one percent said they would back Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan, whose potential gain of former Likud voters could help the party cross the 3.25 percent electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.<\/p>\n Only four percent of Likud voters said they would move further to the right, with three percent backing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and one percent supporting Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, according to the poll. Another two percent said they would vote for Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party, which has called for a broad unity government excluding both ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties<\/a>.<\/p>\n Related Articles<\/p>\n The poll was conducted by the Midgam Institute, headed by Mano Geva, in cooperation with iPanel, though Channel 12 News did not disclose how many people participated in the poll.<\/p>\n Asked about the main reason they were considering not voting for Likud this time, 37 percent cited the failures surrounding the October 7 attack, while 23 percent pointed to the coalition’s efforts to advance legislation that would effectively exempt ultra-Orthodox men from serving in the IDF. Another 14 percent cited Netanyahu’s personal conduct, and 13 percent said divisions within Israeli society were driving them away from the party.<\/p>\n Despite signs of weakening support, nearly two-thirds of the party’s 2022 voters said they believe Benjamin Netanyahu should run again in the next election, while 30 percent said he should “retire honorably” from political life. <\/p>\n Should Netanyahu run in the upcoming election? (% of previous Likud voters)YesHonorable retireDon’t knowChannel 12<\/p>\n The poll also found that 39 percent think Netanyahu is the best representative of the Likud’s values, while 37 percent think Menachem Begin \u2013 the party’s first prime minister \u2013 embodied those values better.<\/p>\n