{"id":71306,"date":"2026-05-14T17:57:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T17:57:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/71306\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T17:57:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T17:57:14","slug":"when-it-comes-to-palantir-the-roar-of-the-bears-is-too-loud-to-ignore-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/71306\/","title":{"rendered":"When It Comes to Palantir, the Roar of the Bears Is Too Loud to Ignore"},"content":{"rendered":"

Quick Read <\/p>\n

Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633B, up 85% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial growth of 133%, but trades at a trailing P\/E of 155 and price-to-sales of 62, while CEO Alex Karp and founder Peter Thiel have been aggressively selling shares since February 2026.<\/p>\n

Insider selling, particularly $2M in shares dumped by Thiel and large blocks sold by Karp, signals executives view the stock as overvalued despite strong fundamentals, raising questions about the sustainability of current valuations.<\/p>\n

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Palantir wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I’ll say it plainly: I’m betting against Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR<\/a>) at these levels, and I think the next 12 months will validate that call. The business is excellent. The stock is something else entirely.<\/p>\n

Bulls have plenty to celebrate. Q1 2026 revenue ripped 85% year-over-year to $1.633 billion, U.S. commercial grew 133%, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 to $7.662 billion. CEO Alex Karp called it “the largest ever full-year revenue guidance raise.” I get the excitement. I just refuse to pay for it.<\/p>\n

The Valuation Math Doesn’t Work <\/p>\n

Palantir trades at a trailing P\/E of 155, a price-to-sales of 62, and a forward P\/E of 97. Even the EV\/EBITDA of 160 is in a category usually reserved for pre-revenue biotech. Morningstar’s fair value sits at $153, with analyst Mark Giarelli flagging “very high uncertainty” on the addressable market. At around $130 per share, you’re paying perfection multiples on a story that’s already down 23% year-to-date.<\/p>\n

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Palantir wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Insiders Are Heading for the Exits <\/p>\n

This is the data point I cannot get past. On March 2, 2026, Peter Thiel disposed of roughly 2 million Class A shares across seven tranches priced between $140.97 and $146.80. CEO Karp himself sold large blocks on February 20, 2026 in the $132 to $135 range. Across 72 recent insider transactions, the net direction is selling. Founders and operators don’t dump shares this aggressively when they think the stock is cheap.<\/p>\n

The SBC Dilution Trap <\/p>\n

GAAP profitability is being papered over by equity issuance. FY2025 stock-based compensation hit $684 million, while buybacks totaled just $74.985 million. That is net dilution, and it gets worse the longer the stock stays elevated.<\/p>\n

Catalysts I’m Watching <\/p>\n

Polymarket’s May 2026 market assigns a 51% probability to $126, and the May 13 daily direction market prices a 77% chance of a down close. Reddit’s r\/investing has flashed sustained bearish sentiment scores of 22 to 28 across late April. The next earnings report and any government continuing resolution slippage will test the 120% U.S. commercial growth guide.<\/p>\n

What Would Change My Mind <\/p>\n

Sustained U.S. commercial growth above guidance, a real buyback program that offsets SBC, or a multiple reset accompanied by accelerating earnings. Absent those, I rate my conviction 8 out of 10. From a research standpoint, hedged exposure or AI infrastructure names trading at a fraction of these multiples offer a cleaner risk\/reward profile than Palantir at current levels. Great company. Wrong price.<\/p>\n

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks <\/p>\n

This analyst’s 2025 picks are up 106% on average. He just named his top 10 stocks to buy in 2026. Get them here FREE<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Quick Read Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633B, up 85% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial growth of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71307,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[5015,1784,228,40948,40109],"class_list":{"0":"post-71306","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-peter-thiel","8":"tag-alex-karp","9":"tag-palantir","10":"tag-peter-thiel","11":"tag-revenue-guidance","12":"tag-top-10-stocks"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@people\/116574227252826759","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}