{"id":835,"date":"2026-04-01T05:02:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T05:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/835\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T05:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T05:02:08","slug":"after-special-election-wins-will-it-be-democrats-expanding-the-congressional-map-in-florida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/835\/","title":{"rendered":"After Special Election wins, will it be Democrats expanding the congressional map in Florida?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Will overperformance by Democrats in Florida\u2019s Special Elections put more GOP-controlled congressional seats at risk?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After Democrat Brian Nathan flipped a <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/787170-democrats-cheer-brian-nathan-upset-frame-sd-14-flip-in-hillsborough-as-gop-warning-sign\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Tampa state Senate seat<\/a> and Democrat Emily Gregory turned President Donald Trump\u2019s Florida House district <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/786361-democrat-emily-gregory-wins-special-election-for-hd-87-in-palm-beach-county\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">blue<\/a>, national Democrats wonder if more U.S. House districts will be in play in November.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (<a href=\"https:\/\/dccc.org\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">DCCC<\/a>) is targeting four GOP-held seats in Florida, twice as many as House Democrats targeted in 2024. A list of DCCC \u201cDistricts in Play\u201d includes those represented by U.S. Reps. Laurel Lee of Thonotosassa, Anna Paulina Luna of St. Petersburg, Cory Mills of New Smyrna Beach, and Mar\u00eda Elvira Salazar of Coral Gables.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JakeSherman\/status\/2037096933739639254\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">told<\/a> Punchbowl News\u2019 Jake Sherman that the Special Election upsets had him thinking Democrats should step up efforts against Republican U.S. Reps. Mario D\u00edaz-Balart of Hialeah, Carlos Gim\u00e9nez of Miami-Dade and Brian Mast of Stuart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That could mean the DCCC, the political arm of House Democrats, could expand its map soon. But no such announcement has been made so far, and such decisions only come after close scrutiny around the districts.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hklaw.com\/en\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-653648\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Influence_FGAT_Banner_728x90.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the DCCC never lists those GOP incumbents as targets, Jeffries is also closely aligned with the House Majority PAC, which announced in <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/711584-house-democrats-will-target-anna-paulina-luna-and-recruit-against-4-other-florida-republicans-in-2026\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">December 2024<\/a> that it may recruit against Gim\u00e9nez, Lee, Mills and Salazar.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">D\u00edaz-Balart, the longest-serving member of Florida\u2019s congressional delegation, said he doesn\u2019t worry about being targeted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019m used to being targeted \u2014 not the first time and won\u2019t be the last,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m ready for anything the Left throws my way. Last time they targeted me with big money and their dream candidate, I won by better than 60%-40% on a horrible year for the GOP.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s a reference to the 2018 cycle, when Democrat Mary Barzee Flores ran against the Hialeah Republican and generated <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/279349-could-mary-barzee-flores-be-2018s-sleeper-upset\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">significant attention<\/a> as one of several female Democratic candidates challenging GOP incumbents. The same cycle, Lauren Baer challenged Mast and <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/280042-election-result-cd-18\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">lost<\/a> by 8 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Democrats did pick up two U.S. House seats in Florida that cycle, if only for a term. Democrat <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/272130-mucarsel-powell-outraises-curbelo\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Debbie Mucarsel-Powell<\/a> unseated incumbent U.S Rep. Carlos Curbelo, while Democrat Donna Shalala won an open seat <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/379104-salazar-leads-shalala\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">previously held<\/a> by Republican U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Both Democrats were defeated in 2020 by Gim\u00e9nez and Salazar, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/votekirwan.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener external noreferrer nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-760769 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/KIR25002-Web-Ad-3-e1760498324308.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Luna, Mast and Mills also got their jobs flipping open seats previously held by Democrats. That means each of those districts \u2014 or, rather, prior configurations of them \u2014 were held by Democrats within the last decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One national Democratic strategist said the Tuesday election results had sent enthusiasm in Washington to new heights, but that any actual expansion of the map would require careful consideration. But the strategist noted that by announcing targets early and getting infrastructure in place, Democrats can field competitive candidates in any corner of the state \u2014 or at least in Central and South Florida.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s true, the strategist said, whether or not Florida Republicans follow through with a <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/750681-daniel-perez-says-florida-house-will-move-forward-with-congressional-redistricting\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">mid-decade redraw<\/a> of congressional lines. Indeed, Democrats believe a new map at this point would almost inevitably put more Republicans at risk instead of making trouble for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s likely part of why many Republicans in Florida\u2019s delegation have more vocally questioned plans for an aggressive redistricting effort.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cDon\u2019t do it,\u201d U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster, a Clermont Republican, told Punchbowl News.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cYou could put incumbents at risk,\u201d U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, told POLITICO.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many Republicans have urged caution if lawmakers do move ahead with redistricting, something Trump pushed other states to do to maximize the number of safe Republican seats. Many presume that will mean making U.S. Reps. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat, and Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat, more vulnerable.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Both have already been <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/731613-nrcc-targets-jared-moskowitz-darren-soto-for-votes-against-budget-framework\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">targeted<\/a> by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the GOP counterpart to the DCCC. But the NRCC has not advocated for redrawing Florida\u2019s map, and the group notably listed the two Florida Democrats on its list of vulnerable incumbents before any conversations began about mid-decade redistricting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some Republican strategists are skeptical that any changes that would put Moskowitz or Soto at risk of an upset would do the same to other Republican incumbents in Florida.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moskowitz, for his part, said he still expects Republicans in Tallahassee to draw new maps. But he expressed confidence that he will be able to run a successful race under any lines.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019ll win and everyone will be so tired of winning,\u201d Moskowitz told Florida Politics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Democrats in Washington tend to agree and see Moskowitz, a moderate, as a candidate who can win in any South Florida district. And while targeting of Soto appears to be based on gains Trump made with Hispanic voters in 2024, when he <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/706853-after-disappointing-night-for-florida-dems-has-osceola-county-gone-red-forever\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">won Osceola County<\/a>, that\u2019s a demographic Republicans have openly fretted will bolt from the GOP this year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mast, for his part, said he has tried to stay out of redistricting conversations. \u201cI\u2019ve never had too many friends in the Statehouse,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The national Democratic strategist speaking to Florida Politics wasn\u2019t certain Republicans like Mast would end up at risk, especially if the current lines remain in place. And if new lines are drawn, House Democrats would likely analyze competitiveness in any race rated R+7 or less.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Christian Ulvert, a Democratic consultant in South Florida, feels more bullish than that. Noting a flip in the Miami Mayor race earlier this year and overperformance in two heavily Republican congressional districts last year, he said virtually no Republican should feel safe in 2026.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNow, any district that\u2019s R+15 to R+20 is a tossup,\u201d he said. \u201cIf a Republican won by 20 to 25 points in the past, they are no longer expecting to cruise to re-election. They will have a fight.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regardless, there is a growing belief that at least one more GOP-held district could end up in play for Democrats by November. That\u2019s quite a shift from when heady Republicans in the wake of Trump\u2019s comeback presidential campaign believed Florida could increase the map for the GOP by as many as five seats.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For his part, Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power, himself a candidate for Congress this year, still feels like Florida can produce more GOP seats this election cycle than in the past.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile I have not discussed redistricting because that\u2019s up to the Legislature, due to the rapid growth of Republicans in Florida, they are underrepresented currently in D.C.,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Will overperformance by Democrats in Florida\u2019s Special Elections put more GOP-controlled congressional seats at risk? After Democrat Brian&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":836,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[1174,1175,1176,1177,1178,1179,1180,1181,1182,485,1183,1184,1185,1186,1187],"class_list":{"0":"post-835","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-hakeem-jeffries","8":"tag-anna-paulina-luna","9":"tag-brian-mast","10":"tag-brian-nathan","11":"tag-carlos-gimenez","12":"tag-christian-ulvert","13":"tag-cory-mills","14":"tag-dccc","15":"tag-emily-gregory","16":"tag-evan-poer","17":"tag-hakeem-jeffries","18":"tag-laurel-lee","19":"tag-maria-elvira-salazar","20":"tag-mario-diaz-balart","21":"tag-nrcc","22":"tag-redistricting"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@people\/116327700490473022","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/people\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}