Latvian intelligence warns of planned hybrid attacks using drones or missiles to pressure NATO allies; the report highlights risk of miscalculation by Russia’s isolated leadership.
Latvian intelligence warns that Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including the use of drones to force NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
According to Latvian intelligence, these conclusions were voiced by service representatives during a conversation with Fox News.
We see signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland – not a conventional war, since Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones, or other actions, aimed at sending a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will face your own problems
– Latvian intelligence
Assessments and Risks
According to the intelligence assessment, the greatest concern is the risk that the head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, may miscalculate because his entourage and state institutions present him only the version of reality he wants to hear.
Latvian intelligence believes that Putin is not only seeking ways to force NATO countries to withdraw their support for Ukraine, but may also receive distorted assessments from his own system, which increases the risk of misjudging Western resolve.
The biggest threat is miscalculation. Russian institutions tell Putin what he wants to hear, and this creates a dangerous closed loop that can lead to rash and senseless decisions. We see increasing signs that Putin wants to receive only positive news. He is isolated, and this makes the decision-making process even more problematic because decisions are not based on the real situation
– Latvian intelligence
The warning from Latvian intelligence is in line with assessments by Polish officials who previously spoke to Fox News that Russia’s hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank is effectively ongoing.
Latvian intelligence also believes that Western sanctions have a real impact on Russia, despite public statements by Moscow that it has “successfully coped” with this pressure.
Russia publicly asserts that sanctions have no value, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions cause substantial harm. Perhaps they will not change Putin’s mind, but they constrain Russia’s financial resources, narrow its options, and force difficult choices regarding the mix of military spending, costs, and pressure on business. Its military economy resembles a house of cards collapsing
– Latvian intelligence
According to a previous report by Latvia’s Constitutional Protection Bureau (SAB), Russia plans to intensify the legal war – abusing the legal system, laws, and judiciary – in order to weaken Western countries.
This material underscores the importance of careful monitoring of events and coordination among NATO allies to deter potential crisis scenarios on the eastern flank.