Poland’s intelligence head warns Moscow could intensify aggression and test NATO’s limits, with Belarus playing a growing role.
Colonel Paweł Szota, head of the Intelligence Agency, in an interview with Rzeczpospolita expressed the view that the real and immediate military threat to Poland mainly comes from the Russian direction. According to the head of intelligence, Moscow regards Poland and the NATO eastern flank countries as an obstacle on the path to imperial ambitions. Seeing what is happening in Ukraine, when the war for Russia is currently not going as expected, an additional factor of concern arises: Moscow may continue the escalation.
Seeing what is happening in Ukraine, when the war for Russia is currently not going as expected, an additional factor of concern arises: Moscow may continue the escalation.
– Colonel Paweł Szota
Intelligence warns: Russia will not rest on its war laurels
Colonel Szota noted that Russia is capable of continuing hostilities in Ukraine for several more years. The Kremlin is ready to sacrifice the welfare of the population, the economy, and investments in order to end the war in a way that would declare victory – that is Putin’s goal.
Russia may continue military actions in Ukraine for several more years. The Kremlin is ready to sacrifice the welfare of society, the economy, and investments to end the war in a way that would declare victory – that is its goal.
– Colonel Paweł Szota
According to the head of the intelligence, the war has become a huge humiliation for Vladimir Putin. Russian security services and the army made a faulty calculation, expecting rapid success. He believes that for Putin this is a matter of honor – to enshrine a military “success” in history, so the situation is unpredictable on Russia’s part.
The war has been a huge humiliation for Vladimir Putin. Russian security services and the army made an erroneous calculation, expecting a quick victorious outcome. For him, it’s a matter of honor that the war in Ukraine is included in history as his success.
– Colonel Paweł Szota
The new role of Belarus and potential risks
Szota confirmed that the Intelligence Agency takes into account Russia’s provocation scenarios against the Baltic states, including interference by so-called “little green men” – without identifying identifiable insignia or any obvious affiliation. According to the head of the intelligence, Russia systematically pushes the red lines, testing NATO’s reaction. The cost of such provocations for Moscow is low, while the Alliance responds mainly politically, which encourages further escalation.
Colonel Szota expressed concern about Belarus’s growing subordination to Moscow. In this country there are facilities for hosting systems to transport nuclear weapons, and nuclear exercises are being conducted. At the same time, the Intelligence Agency maintains its own channels of communication with Minsk, which, among other things, allowed the release of Andrzej Poczobut.
Russia systematically pushes the red lines, testing NATO’s reaction. The cost of such provocations for Moscow is low, and the Alliance responds mainly politically, which encourages further escalation.
– Colonel Paweł Szota
Is Poland ready to act in response to the threat?
The head of the Intelligence Agency emphasized: Poland will not remain indifferent to the aggressive actions of Russia and Belarus. The intelligence has tools for conducting offensive actions, including in cyberspace, to ensure the security of the country and its allies. In light of these findings, the country remains ready to respond to any threats and to support stability in the region.
In conclusion, Szota emphasized that developments on the international stage require constant attention to the evolution of the situation, improvements to intelligence tools, and strengthened cooperation with NATO partners. Political and technical readiness remain key factors that determine the level of security for Poland and the eastern flank countries.