Poland has reportedly been warned that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on its soil to test Nato’s resolve. This could include missile or drone attacks on Polish critical infrastructure, or a limited invasion by Russian soldiers, according to a report in The Telegraph.
The UK military has not changed its plans based on this and there are no crisis meetings happening in the Ministry of Defence, The i Paper understands. Intelligence firm Janes also told The i Paper that there are no current indications in open source data of a looming incursion, such as troop movements.
But one defence analyst, who worked as part of Nato’s response to Russia’s 2014 takeover of Crimea, said it was a “likely play”.
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Venezuela earthquake survivor rescued after eight days – the latest
Caption: TOPSHOT – An international rescue team carries Hernan Gil, a survivor of Venezuela’s twin earthquakes, on a stretche in Catia La Mar, La Guaira State, Venezuela on July 2, 2026, eight days after the quake. Hernan Gil, a 43-year-old security guard, had been buried in the booth of the seven-story building where he worked in Catia La Mar, a coastal area in the state of La Guaira devastated by the disaster. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: FEDERICO PARRA
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A security guard was pulled from the rubble in La Guaria on Thursday, more than 70 hours after he was located in a concrete booth several stories underground.
Man uninjured after rescue
Caption: US rescuers withdraw from the area after failing to find any survivors during search operations in Caraballeda, La Guaira state, Venezuela, on July 2, 2026, eight days after twin earthquakes. Hundreds of rescuers in Venezuela cheered and embraced on July 2, 2026 after pulling 43-year-old Hernan Gil from the ruins of a collapsed building eight days after deadly twin earthquakes, AFP journalists witnessed. (Photo by MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: MARTIN BERNETTI
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Hernan Gil, 44, was working in the basement of a shopping mall car park when the twin quakes struck.
A Costa Rican paramedic heard his cries, prompting a 70-hour rescue.
NEWS
3 min read
How many people have died?
The official death toll has reached
2,595
as of Thursday morning.
It is expected to rise further though, with as many as
50,000
still reported missing after the twin quakes.
Critics of interim president Delcy Rodriguez have accused the government of not responding fast or urgently enough, and independent counts have been set up.
More miraculous rescues
An eight-year-old, Gael Serrano, managed to crawl to safety on Tuesday with his father and grandmother after their eight-storey apartment block collapsed on them in Caraballeda, burying them in rubble.
Caption: Grian Serrano, left, his mother, Ingrid Rochabrun, and his son, Gael, sit at the home where they are staying with relatives in Caracas, Venezuela, after surviving the back-to-back earthquakes that destroyed their apartment building in Caraballeda, Monday, June 29, 2026. Serrano also survived the 1999 mudslides that struck La Guaira. (AP Photo/Pedro Mattey)
Photographer: Pedro Mattey
Provider: AP Photo/Pedro Mattey
Source: AP
Copyright: Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
Caption: A drone view shows a collapsed building, in the aftermath of earthquakes, in La Guaira, Venezuela, July 2, 2026. REUTERS/Ricardo Arduengo
Photographer: Ricardo Arduengo
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Source: REUTERS
Two-year-old Kleiber Moran was also pulled to safety after six days under the rubble, and was reunited with his aunt who told the BBC she would care for him “with a mother’s warmth” until her sister was found.
UN co-ordinator believes death toll will climb
We are definitely looking at a number higher than the one already reported.
A forensic pathologist told CNN that morgues in La Guaira are processing 400 bodies a day, many unrecognisable.
Volunteers search for survivors and victims after two earthquakes struck Venezuela. (Picture: Lin Chunyin/China News Service via Getty Images)
Opposition figures shave accused the government of downplaying the death toll amid estimates it is likely to be in the tens of thousands.
Watch the video here
🇻🇪 Man rescued eight days after Venezuela quakes
An international rescue team have pulled a survivor of Venezuela’s twin earthquakes from the rubble, after surviving eight days underground. Hernan Gil, a 43-year-old security guard, had been buried in the booth of the seven-story… pic.twitter.com/daK4lPGu2Q
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 2, 2026
Ex-Olympian charged for ‘vandalising’ Trump’s $14m pool project
David Hearn, 67, is accused of “maliciously” damaging the floor of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool which President Trump just had resurfaced.
Caption: A member of the National Guard patrols along the rim of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool following the completion of recent renovations in Washington, DC, on June 22, 2026. US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened jail time for anyone seeking to damage one of his signature renovation projects, the Reflecting Pool at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, whose overhaul has become a political flashpoint. Trump brought in contractors to drain the 610-meter pool and repaint it “American flag blue.” But soon after completion of the work the coating has begun to peel off and algae turned the pool’s water a mucky green — setbacks the president blamed on vandals, without providing evidence. (Photo by Kent Nishimura / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: KENT NISHIMURA
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Olympian denies vandalism
Hearn, a former US Olympic canoeist, is accused of “forcefully and violently” ripping up sealant that had been installed on the pool as part of Trump’s revamp, causing $1,000 of damage in a “deliberate act”.
Hearn, whose company makes water-resistant materials, says he was passing on a bike ride and reached into the pool to examine the coating, which was peeling.
Caption: WASHINGTON,DC – JUNE 18: A piece of the new blue paint, a part of President Donald Trump’s renovation, peels off from the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial’s Reflecting Pool on June 18, 2026, in Washington, DC. The algae levels also spiked days after the renovation, which cost around $ 14 million, completed. (Photo by Christine Kao/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Photographer: The Washington Post
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FOOTBALL
3 min read
What happened to Hearn?
The incident took place on 19 June, shortly after work was completed on the pool. He says he was detained by the National Guard and Park Police for five hours.
Caption: WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 18: Seen through algae-laden green water, a tear in the recently applied sealant can be seen on the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on June 18, 2026 in Washington, DC. The National Park Service is working to control and remove an algae bloom that has turned the pool green following the Trump Administration’s recent $16 million repair, resealing and painting project. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Photographer: Chip Somodevilla
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Source: Getty Images North America
Copyright: 2026 Getty Images
Caption: FILE – American David Hearn, of Bethesda, Md., makes his way through the C1 slalom course, Sept. 17, 2000, at Whitewater Stadium in Penrith, Australia. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File)
Photographer: KOJI SASAHARA
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Source: AP
Copyright: Copyright 2000 AP. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
US Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, said he was “disrespectful” to an employee who told him to stop touching the pool.
Why was the floor peeling?
The floor had been covered in an ‘American flag blue’ coating, which Trump said would restore the pond’s colour after his predecessors allowed it to turn green.
The water, however, turned green again from algae shortly after the coating was installed. Chemicals were added to try and get rid of the algae which then caused the blue paint to peel.
WORLD
4 min read
Power Players
6 min read
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Opinion | “American politics is in one of the most volatile periods in modern history, and the warning signs are visible to anyone who has worked near the centre of power,” writes Karine Jean-Pierre, Former White House Press Secretary. “I served in two administrations, under Barack Obama and later Joe Biden, in political strategy, outreach and eventually as White House press secretary – giving me a rare view of how US politics operates from the inside.” Read Karine’s full piece on @theipaper website. donaldtrump uspolitics whitehouse
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Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce kick off New York wedding celebrations
The pop superstar and her American football player fiancé have reportedly shut down Madison Square Gardens for their big day tomorrow, with celebrities already spotted in the vicinity.
If the rumour mill is to be believed, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce aren’t planning a wedding – they are planning a cultural event (Photo: Kevin Mazur/Getty for iHeartRadio)
Fans on the hunt for wedding location
Rumours started to swirl about Swift and Travis Kelce’s nuptials when permits to close the New York arena were filed with the city a few weeks ago.
It now seems all but confirmed their wedding, scheduled to coincide with 4 July celebrations, will take place in the iconic stadium.
Caption: Workers believed to be a part of the reported wedding between singer Taylor Swift and National Football League (NFL) player Travis Kelce, cross a road outside Madison Square Garden, in New York City, U.S., July 3, 2026. REUTERS/Christian Monterrosa TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Photographer: Christian Monterrosa
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Source: REUTERS
Caption: A worker is seen leaving Madison Square Garden after a reported rehearsal dinner ahead of singer Taylor Swift’s wedding to Kansas City Chiefs player Travis Kelce in Manhattan, New York, on July 3, 2026. The main act of pop sensation Taylor Swift’s wedding to NFL star Travis Kelce was due to get underway July 3, as celebrities flooded New York for the A-lister extravaganza at the storied Madison Square Garden. The billionaire singer and three-time Super Bowl champion, both 36, opened the festivities on July 2 with an exclusive rehearsal dinner — only around 100 guests were invited. Swift, who announced her engagement to Kelce last August, has been tight-lipped about what will surely be the wedding of the year, and guests have reportedly signed non-disclosure agreements. (Photo by Ryan MURPHY / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: RYAN MURPHY
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Source: AFP
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What do we know about the wedding?
High-profile guests such as Swift’s producer Jack Anotoff and fellow pop star Selena Gomez were spotted in the area last night, dressed as if to attend a rehearsal dinner.
Caption: Forklifts and trucks are seen outside Madison Square Garden in New York on June 30, 2026. Increasing signs point to a mega-bash for the A-list celebrity couple Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce at Madison Square Garden this week. Rumors have run rampant for weeks that the 36-year-old pop superstar and the three-time NFL Super Bowl winner, both 36, could wed at the storied sports arena, home to the New York Knicks, the newly crowned NBA champions. (Photo by Leonardo MUNOZ / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: LEONARDO MUNOZ
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Caption: FILE – Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, right, is congratulated by Taylor Swift as they celebrate the Chiefs’ victory over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship NFL football game, Jan. 26, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
Photographer: Charlie Riedel
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Source: AP
There were expected to be 100 people there last night with more than 1,000 at the main event today, according to a City permit.
Why men are twice as likely to hit the marathon wall
Men’s tendency towards overconfidence could be to blame for them experiencing the sudden switch from coasting to not coping, known to runners as ‘hitting the wall’.
Caption: This is a stock image of the London marathon. Here are the skincare essentials you need for running. See PA Feature BEAUTY Runner. WARNING: This picture must only be used to accompany PA Feature BEAUTY Runner. PA Photo. Picture credit should read: Alamy/PA.
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What the figures show
Among the fastest amateur marathon runners, men are
6 times
more likely to ‘hit the wall’ than women.
Across all speeds, men were twice as likely to experience the slow-down.
This was defined as slowing down by
20%
or more in the second half.
.
A mindset issue, say authors
The clue is that the gap is largest among the fastest men. If this were purely physiology, you might expect the most trained men to manage it best. The fact that they show the biggest gap points to strategy and risk-taking playing a real role, and that is the part a runner can actually change.
Aldo Seffrin at Nova O2 Sports Science
Caption: A group of joggers racing against each other on pedestrian walk way at the park.
Photographer: Tom Werner
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Source: Digital Vision
Copyright: Copyright by Franziska & Tom Werner
Watch more from The i Paper
The 2026 World Cup is set to be one of the hottest on record, with temperatures in the US expected to top 35°C in cities like Dallas, Houston and Monterrey this June and July. This is not the first time the heat has impacted a World Cup, but for the first time, the 2026 edition will introduce three-minute “hydration breaks” to help the players. The i Paper’s Chief Football Writer@danielstorey85 went to Loughborough University to put his body to the test in a heat chamber and find out exactly what the players will be dealing with. #US #UK #worldcup #football
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world cup
Open all hours! Pubs won’t close until 5am for England Mexico match
England supporters during the England v Croatia World Cup match at The Clock pub in Hebburn on 17 June 17, 2026 (Photo: AP Photo/Scott Heppell)
Fans will be able to stay in the pub until the early hours of Monday morning in England and Wales to watch the Three Lions take on Mexico.
Pubs welcome extended hours
With kick-off for the round of 16 match not starting until 1am on Monday, pubs will be allowed to stay open until 5am for anyone who wants to extend the celebration – or commiseration.
Kane celebrates alongside Jude Bellingham after pulling England level (Photo: Reuters)
England fans cheering on the team as they take on Panama in the World Cup on 27 June (Photo: AFP)
The move has been welcomed across the nighttime industry, with the Greene King chain saying more than 600 of its pubs will be open.
Starmer’s final U-turn?
Football might be coming home but we’re making sure fans don’t have to.
Business minister, Kate Dearden had initially said yesterday opening hours would not be extended, but Sir Keir Starmer reversed the decision by the afternoon.
Sir Keir Starmer walks outside 10 Downing Street in London (Photo: Reuters)
Pubs had already been granted extended hours for World Cup matches, until 1am for kick-offs 5pm to 9pm, and until 2am for kick-offs between 9pm and 10pm.
In pictures: Joy as England go through
Caption: Soccer Football – FIFA World Cup 2026 – Round of 32 – England v DR Congo – Fans gather in London – BOXPARK Wembley, London, Britain – July 1, 2026 England fans celebrates after the match at BOXPARK Wembley as England qualify for the Round of 16 stage of the World Cup Action Images via Reuters/Cat Goryn
Photographer: Cat Goryn
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Source: REUTERS
Caption: Fans watch a screening of the FIFA World Cup match between England and Congo DR at The Big Shed at the Trent Navigation in Nottingham. Picture date: Wednesday July 1, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire.
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Photographer: Joe Giddens
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Caption: MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – JULY 1: England fans watch the England V DR Congo in the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Freight Island on July 1, 2026 in Manchester, England. England play the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the round of 32 knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The match is taking place at Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)
Photographer: Anthony Devlin
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
Andy Burnham during an appearance on the Tonight with Andrew Marr show on LBC radio (Photo: PA)
politics
Burnham hints at tax changes – here’s what he could increase
In his first interview since being elected as MP for Makerfield, the likely next prime minister Andy Burnham has committed to sticking to Labour’s manifesto pledges on the three main taxes, but hinted others that might go up.
‘I stick by the manifesto’, Burnham tells Marr
Appearing on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr last night, Burnham confirmed he would be keeping to Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledging not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance.
But he said there was “room within that manifesto for movement on tax”.
Caption: Andy Burnham, holding a copy of the UK Defence Investment Plan during an appearance on the Tonight with Andrew Marr show on LBC radio, from the Global studios at Millbank, central London. Picture date: Thursday July 2, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
Photographer: Stefan Rousseau
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Exclusive
4 min read
What taxes could Burnham raise?
Self-employed people are worried over new rules (Photo: George Clerk/Getty)
Burnham has already floated increasing business rates on warehouses.
He could also replace council tax with a land and property value tax.
Explained
4 min read
What about tax cuts?
The former Mayor of Greater Manchester has also hinted that some taxes might be going down, such as business rates for pubs.
Burnham also spoke of reforming income tax, possibly raising the personal allowance threshold from £12,570. This could be accompanied by reintroducing a top rate of 50 per cent for those earning above £150,000.
OPINION
3 min read
Explained
4 min read
Watch more from The i Paper
Your sleep has a huge impact on your heart health
How sleep and your heart
health are linked
Adults who regularly sleep fewer than seven hours are at increased risk of high blood pressure, obesity, heart attack and diabetes.
The risk of coronary artery disease is 45 per cent higher in adults with short sleep durations at night.
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
The bedtime habits that reduce risk
Sleep tourism in hotel. Exhausted woman sleeps sweetly in bed in the morning – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Consistency
Keep daytime naps to less than 20 minutes and aim for seven to eight hours sleep per night.
Wind down
A reasonable 20-30 minute bedtime routine can include reading, light stretching, and meditation.
A mature man meditates in the last sun rays coming into his bedroom – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Caption: Close-up view of female jogger tying laces of her sport shoes before running exercise routine. Motivation, healthy lifestyle and fitness concept.
Photographer: Xavier Lorenzo
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Time your exercise
Vigorous exercise within three hours of bedtime can cause insomnia.
The bedroom environment
Pensive young Asian woman sitting on bed writing on journal in cozy bedroom. Copy space. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Sleeping in a bedroom with bright overhead light has been associated with a higher risk of major cardiovascular events, including heart attack (47 per cent higher risk), stroke (28 per cent) and heart failure.
Darken the room with blackout blinds or an eye mask, avoid blue light and leave your mobile phone outside your bedroom.
The bedtime habits that reduce risk
Food and drink
Alcohol, nicotine, caffeine and large evening meals can all disrupt sleep quality.
One theory is that alcohol and drugs can hijack the brain’s pathways (Photo: Guillermo Spelucin/Getty Images)
Know your numbers
If your blood pressure at bedtime is consistently high, consider discussing medication with your GP.
Beware of snoring
Sleep-disordered breathing is linked with cardiovascular conditions, so it could be time for a GP evaluation.
Separate bedrooms is not the first step on the road to dissolution; it’s the route to joint survival (Photo: LordHenriVoton/E+/Miljan Lakic/Getty)
Is the UK set for another heatwave?
Last month was the warmest June on record for England, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole. With temperatures on the rise once again, Britons are wondering if another heatwave is on the way?
Caption: A person uses a hand-held fan to keep cool on Primrose Hill in central London on June 27, 2026, during a heatwave. The UK broke the record for a June temperature for the third day in a row on Friday, the Met Office weather agency said, as a sweltering heatwave strained schools and hospitals and drove down business. A provisional 37.3 C record temperature was chalked up in Santon Downham, a village in Suffolk. (Photo by Toby Shepheard / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: TOBY SHEPHEARD
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NEWS
4 min read
What does the forecast say?
Experts have already warned that another heatwave is likely to be declared in the UK within the coming days as temperatures are forecast to reach 30°C in places.
Caption: People drink water during an early morning journey across the centre of Bristol where temperatures are already in the mid 20???s and extremely humid after overnight thunderstorms. A rare red warning for extreme heat has been issued by the Met Office as the UK has sweltered in exceptionally hot and humid conditions. The heatwave, driven by a “heat-dome” settling over western Europe that has brought extreme conditions across the continent, has led to health warnings, school closures and transport disruption. Picture date: Friday June 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Ben Birchall/PA Wire
Photographer: Ben Birchall
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Spectators protect themselves with hats at the Lexus Eastbourne Open. Scientists warned that the heatwave would have been virtually impossible 50 years ago (Photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP)
By the weekend, heat is forecast to build across France and southern Britain with some locations reaching heatwave threshold temperatures.
When is a heatwave declared?
Experts warn of infrastructure breakdown and excess deaths in the UK as the world heats up faster than predicted (Photo: Brook Mitchell/Getty)
A heatwave is declared once certain daytime temperatures are reached.
In London and the south-east, three consecutive days of 28°C are needed.
Analysis
3 min read
What do the experts say?
Although a return to heatwave conditions is looking increasingly likely for some areas, the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures or high levels of humidity as last week is currently low.
Tony Wisson, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – JUNE 24: People make their way through central London as the day heats up on June 24, 2026 in London, England. The Met Office has upgraded an extreme heat warning to red for six regions of England and Wales on Wednesday and Thursday this week, with amber warnings in effect since Monday. Temperatures are forecast to rise above 30C for several consecutive days, posing intense heat risks for vulnerable people and infrastructure. (Photo by Brook Mitchell/Getty Images)
Photographer: Brook Mitchell
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Source: Getty Images Europe
Copyright: 2026 Brook Mitchell
Yellow heat warning issued
The UK Health Security Agency has issued yellow heat health alerts for the East Midlands, London, eastern, south-eastern and south-western England, warning that there is a greater risk to life for vulnerable people as a result of the temperatures.
Caption: People on Westminster Bridge in central London. The UK is set to bake in record-breaking temperatures amid rare red warnings over extreme temperatures that are expected to hit record highs for June. A “heat-dome” settling over western Europe could bring temperatures of up to 40C in some parts of England and Wales in the middle part of the week. Picture date: Tuesday June 23, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Yui Mok/PA Wire
Photographer: Yui Mok
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Caption: LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM AUGUST 12: A woman uses a portable fan to cool down in London as the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issues an amber extreme heat health alert for East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London and South East on August 12, 2025. The rest of the country remains under a yellow heat warning, with temperatures expected to exceed 35??C in some areas. (Photo by Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
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Source: Anadolu
Unlike the last heatwave, however, the air is expected to be less humid, at least initially. So despite the high temperatures, it may feel a little more comfortable.
Ed Arnold, a senior security analyst at defence think tank Rusi, said Putin could seek to legitimise aggression by presenting it as protection of residents of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad that borders Poland, and calibrating an attack to avoid US involvement and split Nato.
Under the terms of the Nato military alliance – which has 32 members including the UK and Poland – an attack on one country is seen as an attack on all. But any UK response would depend on the nature and severity of the operation.
Key steps would have to be taken first.
Intelligence gathering
The first to discover any incursion into Nato would be the UK’s military intelligence experts, who work 24/7 to monitor threats to the UK and its allies at the forces spy centre in Cambridgeshire.
Their analysts would kick into action, gathering and processing information on the incursion to compile a report, which would be rushed up the food chain to inform top decision-makers.
Working in a secretive, windowless room draped with UK and military flags, they would draw on everything from satellite imagery, information from allies, human intelligence, social media and the news channels which play on screens above their desks at all hours of the day.
Emergency meetings
As news of any incursion broke, a COBRA meeting would likely be called. This is a high-level co-ordination and decision-making meeting called in the event of an emergency, including natural disasters and terrorist attacks.
The attendees depend on the nature of the event, but the prime minister, defence secretary and military chiefs would be expected to be in attendance if Russia launched an incursion. They would discuss the possible options for the UK to respond.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a statement following a COBRA meeting after two people were stabbed in Golders Green, north-west London, on 29 April 2026 (Photo: Stefan Rousseau / WPA Pool/Getty Images)
The UK may also participate in a meeting with its Nato allies, likely represented by the British ambassador to the alliance, Angus Lapsley.
Under Nato’s Article 4, any member country can call an emergency meeting when its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened, and Poland may choose to bring its allies together to collectively decide on a response in this scenario.
Decision turns to action
Once a course of action had been chosen, the operation would be handed to the Chief Joint Operations, at the military’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood.
This centre brings together all branches of the forces – because any response would include different strands of the military – and maintains top secret plans for a range of possible scenarios.
The job of the chief, currently Lieutenant General Charlie Stickland, would be to turn the agreed-upon response into a deliverable military plan.
Army deployment
The UK already has a permanent presence of around 800 to 900 soldiers in Estonia and a few hundreds troops in Poland under Operation Cabrit, which was set up in 2016 to defend Nato’s eastern flank.
In the case of an attack on Poland, insiders suggested that the UK would probably look to reinforce its existing presence in Estonia, rather than immediately deploy troops to Poland. Poland is already supported by a large number of other Nato allies, with 10,000 American troops stationed there, and it is operationally simpler for the UK to increase an existing presence than launch an entirely new one.
It is also possible that a Russian incursion could be a decoy or distraction for another attack, and the UK would want to ensure Estonia was not vulnerable while attention was focused elsewhere.
However, any decisions on deployment would be made in partnership with Nato, which makes the final decision on which troops, from which countries, should be moved where.
Captain Hamish Mackellar scoops for enemy troops on the Tapa range in Estonia where British soldiers took part in Exercise Winter Camp (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
The UK keeps a number of personnel on high readiness at all times to deploy overseas in an emergency. The British Army’s 4th Brigade is paired with the Estonian teams to provide back up in case of emergency, offering specialist light forces who are capable of fighting in complex, varied environments, with one official suggesting this was the most likely unit to deploy.
A deployment could be also undertaken by 16 Air Assault Brigade, the Army’s Global Response Force. This team is able to deploy around the world at a moment’s notice, and participated in the evacuation of Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2022, and the evacuation of Sudan in April 2023. However, it is generally focused on crises outside of Europe, though it includes elite parachute units who could, if needed, drop into any conflict zone from the sky.
Air response
The UK already carries out air policing missions to protect the airspace over eastern Europe from Russia. The Royal Air Force is currently deployed on Op BILOXI in Romania for Air Policing, where it works with the Romanian air force to maintain a 24-hour Quick Reaction Alert. If needed, it could increase its contribution to this, including by sending more jets or support equipment.
It also takes part in Eastern Sentry, a Nato mission to enhance protection of allied airspace, which was set up in 2025 after multiple incursions by Russian drones. Nato could decide to launch a new mission, or ask allies to step up their contributions to existing defensive operations.
Soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade set up and fly their military drones after jumping from an RAF A400M transport aircraft onto Salisbury Plain at Copehill Down training facility in March (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)
However, increasing the number of Typhoon jets sent to eastern Europe could mean cutting back on missions elsewhere.
The UK requires Typhoons at home to defend British airspace, and has jets deployed in the Middle East in light of the war between the US, Israel and Iran, so this would require tough choices about the reallocation of air power.
The UK also takes part in Baltic Sentry, a Nato plan focused on intelligence and surveillance of the Baltic area, using P8 maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft and Rivet Joint signals, intelligence and electronic warfare jets. This mission mostly monitors Russian ships and submarines.
The UK could increase the number of sorties it flies, but only if this was appropriate for the type of incursion or threat, insiders said.
Command deployment
In a more extreme scenario requiring a larger Nato response, the UK could deploy the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, a high readiness headquarters which can be deployed around the world as a command post for Nato operations.
Should the incursion expand into a full-scale conflict, the UK could escalate to match the threat, by calling up its reserve forces, deploying further troops or even considering nuclear responses.
Soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade set up a heavy machine gun position after parachuting near Warminster, England (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)
How likely is a Russian attack on Poland?
A Russian incursion into Poland would bring “significant” nuclear risks, Arnold said, because although Poland is not a nuclear power, they are defended by British, French and American nuclear arsenals under Nato agreements.
“However, the Ukrainians have battered Moscow, Petersburg, oil refineries, and it hasn’t led to nuclear escalation,” he added
Arnold said that for Russia to be successful, it would have to stage an incident below the threshold of drawing a large-scale American respond.
“In doing so, you split the alliance, because then it pushes a lot of pressure on the Europeans to act as one, and when you don’t have the US as the binding decision maker, Europeans tend to struggle,” he said.
Soldiers from the 2nd Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment (The Poachers) around their Jackal vehicles on the Tapa range in Estonia where British soldiers were taking part in Exercise Winter Camp, which is part of Operation Cabrit, in February. (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
Even without Nato’s support, Poland would be able to respond “very strongly,” Arnold said.
Poland has Nato’s third largest army and spends just under 5 per cent of its GDP on defence, compared with 2.6 per cent for the UK. But if other allies don’t come to Poland’s aid, it would prove the Nato alliance does not work.
“The best option for Putin is: he does this, there’s a limited engagement with the Poles, no one helps the Poles, the US don’t come in, and then effectively Nato’s dead,” Arnold said.
However, others believe that a Russian incursion is not imminent – and the reports could be politically motivated.
John Foreman, a British former Nato official and defence attache in Moscow and Kyiv, said that a Russian attack on a European Nato member was not likely as it would not serve Moscow’s interests.
Instead, he suggested Polish sources cited in the report could have an agenda to shore up the US military presence in the country ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara next week.
A Battlefield Ambulance during Op CABRIT at Exercise WINTER CAMP in Tapa, Estonia. (Photo: Beth Prodger/ UK MOD Crown copyright)
A planned deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland was cancelled in May and the White House has mooted wider withdrawals from Europe.
Foreman said the leaks were “pre-Ankara spin to stop the Americans doing anything rash” and Warsaw wanting “to get more Nato in Poland”.
Intelligence analysts at Janes said even without an incursion into Poland, Russia already engages in hybrid actions against Nato states and this is very likely to continue. “Actions include sabotage of critical national infrastructure and UAV incursions into Nato airspace,” they told The i Paper.
“These actions are undertaken at a low level that are hard to see in advance and allow for plausible deniability by Moscow. This complicates any Nato response and can increase political tension within the alliance, which Moscow sees as a centre of gravity that it can exploit.”