Officials warn Russia may pursue fresh escalations abroad after failing to achieve victory in Ukraine. Lithuanian leaders say intelligence points to possible provocations aimed at testing NATO unity.

According to Lithuania’s public broadcaster LRT, Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated that Moscow has not secured victory in its war against Ukraine and is now seeking alternatives, notably considering the Baltic region and Poland as potential next targets.

According to Kaunas, the war in Ukraine is unfolding not according to the Kremlin’s plans; they cannot win, and today explosions are echoing in Russia itself; there is a fuel shortage, and the Russian public is casting doubt on the Kremlin regime about why this is happening and where the promised victory is.

For the Kremlin, Putin needs a new escalation, some new victory, and the Baltic region and Poland are the nearest targets in this case,

– Robertas Kaunas

His remarks came after President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed reports that had circulated in foreign media earlier that Russia planned provocations in Poland or the Baltic states aimed at testing NATO unity.

According to the Lithuanian president, the assessment is based on intelligence data and concerns possible Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, which could be carried out using either conventional military means or the so-called hybrid tactics.

Threat to the Baltic region and the Allies’ response

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski previously suggested that Russia could carry out a “false flag” operation involving Ukrainian-made drones.

I would say that there is no clear level of conventional threat or any such risk today, but one cannot rule out the possibility of using conventional means to provoke something,

– Raimundas Vaikšnoras

Meanwhile, Lithuania’s Chief of the General Staff Raimundas Vaikšnoras stated that there is currently no obvious threat of conventional Russian armed aggression against Lithuania or other Baltic states, although provocations using military means cannot be ruled out.

According to foreign media, the President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs said that he had received intelligence information about possible provocations by Russia against the Baltic states.

Strengthening regional security remains one of the Allies’ priorities: Lithuania calls for maintaining NATO unity and increasing readiness to respond to any threats.