PKP Intercity, the state-owned rail operator that dominates long-distance trains in Poland, could face more competitors after 2030, when the current contract for publicly funded services expires. Polish authorities are preparing the future market model, and consultations with operators show significant interest in entering this segment.
According to data presented during consultations for the Horizontal Timetable – Horyzontalny Rozkład Jazdy (HRJ) project, 10 operators are interested in publicly subsidized passenger services, while 7 entities are targeting commercial trains, financed exclusively through ticket sales.
PKP Intercity dominates long-distance trains
Currently, the Polish long-distance train market is operated almost entirely by PKP Intercity. The company runs approximately 500 trains per day, and most services are funded from the state budget, in the Intercity and TLK categories.
Only a few dozen PKP Intercity trains are operated commercially, based on ticket revenue, in the Express InterCity and Express InterCity Premium categories. Aside from the state operator, the long-distance market remains limited, although Poland already has private operators active in other segments of rail transport.
In the regional segment, for example, Arriva operates rail services in Poland and has announced the expansion of its operations in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie Voivodeship through a contract worth approximately 5 million euros for two regional lines, which are scheduled to begin operations in December 2026.
Leo Express is also present on the Polish market. On March 1, 2026, the operator launched a domestic service on the Warsaw–Krakow route, with the train then continuing internationally to Prague via Ostrava, Olomouc, and Pardubice.
The RegioJet case, however, shows just how difficult competition can be in the long-distance segment. The Czech operator announced that it is withdrawing from the Polish domestic market after less than a year of operation, citing PKP Intercity’s dominant position, state support, and practices that allegedly hindered market entry. PKP rejected the accusations and maintained that its commercial policy is legal.
Therefore, the change planned for the post-2030 period does not mean opening a completely closed market, but rather a transition to a model with more real competition, especially on long-distance services commissioned and financed by the state.
The RegioJet case shows that formal market access is not sufficient if new operators do not have stable conditions, sales channels, predictable access to infrastructure, and effective protection against practices that may limit competition.
23 entities participated in the consultations
The consultations in Poland were held in late 2024 and early 2025 and attracted 23 entities from Poland and abroad. In-depth discussions were conducted with 15 of these entities through questionnaires and meetings.
The goal was to understand the expectations of potential market participants, both for subsidized services, which will be commissioned by the ministry responsible for transportation, and for commercial trains operated at the companies’ own risk.
One of the main conclusions is that the Polish market is attracting interest, but this interest does not automatically guarantee the rapid emergence of many trains operated by different companies. For new operators to actually enter the market, stable rules, access to infrastructure, and available rolling stock will be needed.
Operators call for stability and predictability
One of the central themes of the consultations was the need for stability. Operators requested that the state prepare a clear schedule of future tenders, including deadlines, geographic areas, service volumes, and contract durations.
The market indicated that tenders should be launched gradually and over different time periods so that carriers can prepare their investments and resources. Predictability is also important for commercial trains, where operators depend on access to infrastructure.
Currently, open-access decisions for the railway are granted for limited periods, of no more than 5 years, and some operators have also cited the excessive length of procedures as an obstacle to market development.
Lack of data favors existing operators
Another barrier highlighted is the lack of access to historical data on passenger traffic. For new operators, this information is essential for calculating bids, especially if future contracts will include risks related to ticket revenue.
In the absence of this data, operators already present in the market have a clear advantage. In the case of Poland, this primarily favors PKP Intercity, which has commercial and operational information accumulated over time.
Access to rolling stock, a key issue
The operators consulted also drew attention to access to rolling stock, which could become a decisive factor in future tenders.
In their view, vehicles purchased with support from European funds should be made available on an equal basis. The example cited is that of the 300 railcars and locomotives co-financed through KPO, the Polish equivalent of the PNRR, with a value of over 2 billion zlotys (approximately 470 million euros).
The issue is significant because a new operator cannot quickly enter the market without trains, locomotives, or railcars that are available, certified, and suitable for the required services.
Hybrid models combining commercial and subsidized trains
The consultations also included the possibility of hybrid solutions, in which certain trains would operate commercially on some sections and with budgetary support on others.
Some operators responded positively to the idea of synergistic stops. If the number of commercial trains increases, the state could fund stops at certain stations so that commercial services also serve towns that might otherwise be bypassed.
Such a model would allow for combining commercial logic with public service objectives, without the state having to fully fund the entire route.
Examples from the Czech Republic, Germany, and Sweden
The authors of the consultations emphasize that liberalization should not be an end in itself, but a tool for improving service offerings. Examples from the Czech Republic, Germany, and Sweden show that, in the subsidized services segment, opening up to competition can reduce unit subsidies by 20–30%.
This would mean that, for the same amount of money, the state could order more trains, support the purchase of modern rolling stock, or provide more seats for passengers.
At the same time, examples of operators such as Italo in Italy or Iryo in Spain show that major private investments are easier to attract on high-speed networks. This is relevant for Poland, which is preparing the development of future high-speed lines, including the “Y” rail axis.
“To maintain the high growth rate of rail transport, further development of rail connections is necessary. Examples from the Czech Republic, Germany, or Sweden show that, in the subsidized services segment, the effect of market opening is a reduction in unit subsidies by as much as 20–30%. This means that, for the same amount of money, there can be more trains in the schedule, modern rolling stock can be purchased, or more seats can be provided on trains. “This is particularly important because today it is often impossible to purchase reserved-seat tickets shortly before travel,” stated Piotr Rachwalski, a member of the management of Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), the Polish company responsible for the central transport hub project and the associated new rail connections.
The Horizontal Timetable for 2035 will be updated in June
The Horizontal Timetable Project – HRJ aims to systematically develop the national rail network and coordinate it between the central level, the voivodeship regions, and major urban agglomerations.
An update for the year 2035 is set to be published in June. This timeframe was chosen because Poland estimates that, by then, the entire “Y” high-speed line could be operational, a project that would significantly change the structure of national rail transport.
In parallel, experts from Port Polska, the entity involved in planning the future national rail network, are working alongside the Ministry of Infrastructure and the European Union Centre for Transport Projects – CUPT to prepare a new transport plan for the period 2030–2034.
This plan will form the basis for future tenders for interregional and international trains. The work also includes fare and schedule integration of services, as well as the implementation of AeroExpress trains, which are expected to provide rail connections to the future airport hub.
Port Polska is also working with Polskie Linie Kolejowe, the Polish railway infrastructure manager, on the Integrated Railway Network – Zintegrowana Sieć Kolejowa (ZSK) project. This will define Poland’s target railway network, including planned investments after 2035.
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