{"id":113251,"date":"2026-02-13T11:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T11:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/113251\/"},"modified":"2026-02-13T11:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T11:12:10","slug":"ucraina-in-pragul-celui-de-al-cincilea-an-de-razboi-negocieri-fara-final-alegeri-fara-pace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/113251\/","title":{"rendered":"Ucraina, \u00een pragul celui de-al cincilea an de r\u0103zboi: negocieri f\u0103r\u0103 final, alegeri f\u0103r\u0103 pace?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Procesul de negociere privind ie\u0219irea din r\u0103zboiul ruso-ucrainean pare s\u0103 fi devenit un scop \u00een sine. \u00cen timp ce Ucraina \u00ee\u0219i consum\u0103 resursele, Vladimir Putin c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 timp, Donald Trump urm\u0103re\u0219te mize politice \u0219i financiare, iar Europa \u00eenainteaz\u0103 prin proceduri birocratice lente.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\"R\u0103zboiul<\/p>\n

R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina intr\u0103 \u00een al cincilea an\/FOTO: Shutterstock<\/p>\n

La fel cum nu po\u021bi num\u0103ra pe\u0219tii afla\u021bi \u00een mi\u0219cae dintr-un acvariu f\u0103r\u0103 a surprinde o imagine de moment, este dificil s\u0103 anticipezi rezultatul final al negocierilor, \u00eentruc\u00e2t dinamica se schimb\u0103 de la o zi la alta. Ceea ce poate fi descris ast\u0103zi drept un posibil deznod\u0103m\u00e2nt ar putea ar\u0103ta diferit m\u00e2ine.<\/p>\n

\u00cen orice moment, \u201enegocierile de dragul negocierilor\u201d pot fi abandonate \u00een favoarea unei formule concrete de \u00eencetare a r\u0103zboiului. \u00cens\u0103 o asemenea decizie depinde nu at\u00e2t de dorin\u021ba lui Donald Trump de a \u00eenchide dosarul ucrainean \u00eenaintea alegerilor pentru Congres, c\u00e2t de calculul strategic al Kremlinului, scrie Zerkalo Nedeli.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tAlegeri \u00eentr-un timp al r\u0103zboiului<\/p>\n

\u00cen paralel cu discu\u021biile externe, Ucraina intr\u0103 \u00eentr-o etap\u0103 \u00een care logica politic\u0103 intern\u0103 \u00eencepe s\u0103 se mi\u0219te mai rapid \u0219i mai dur dec\u00e2t procesul diplomatic. Indiferent c\u00e2nd se va opri r\u0103zboiul, alegerile vor trebui organizate \u2013 fie dup\u0103 \u00eencetarea ostilit\u0103\u021bilor, fie chiar \u00een timpul acestora, dac\u0103 marile puteri vor \u00eempinge \u00een aceast\u0103 direc\u021bie.<\/p>\n

Potrivit unor relat\u0103ri ale Reuters \u0219i Financial Times, \u00een cadrul unor discu\u021bii recente ar fi fost analizat\u0103 o posibil\u0103 succesiune de pa\u0219i: un acord de pace \u00een prim\u0103var\u0103, urmat de alegeri preziden\u021biale \u0219i eventual un referendum.<\/p>\n

R\u0103m\u00e2n \u00eens\u0103 numeroase necunoscute. Ar fi vorba despre un acord amplu de pace sau doar despre un armisti\u021biu? Ar putea avea loc alegeri f\u0103r\u0103 ridicarea legii mar\u021biale? Constitu\u021bia Ucrainei interzice alegerile parlamentare \u00een timpul st\u0103rii de r\u0103zboi, \u00eens\u0103 \u00een cazul celor preziden\u021biale interdic\u021bia este reglementat\u0103 prin lege ordinar\u0103, care ar putea fi modificat\u0103.<\/p>\n

Men\u021binerea legii mar\u021biale \u00een timpul unei campanii electorale ar \u00eensemna o campanie scurt\u0103, restric\u021bii de securitate \u0219i un control administrativ sporit. Sus\u021bin\u0103torii unei asemenea formule ar argumenta c\u0103 este o m\u0103sur\u0103 de pruden\u021b\u0103 \u00eentr-un context fragil. Criticii ar vedea \u00een ea un cadru care limiteaz\u0103 competi\u021bia politic\u0103 \u0219i ridic\u0103 semne de \u00eentrebare privind caracterul pe deplin liber al scrutinului.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tCalculul politic de la Kiev<\/p>\n

Potrivit unor sondaje interne citate de surse politice, actualul pre\u0219edinte ar avea un avantaj \u00een primul tur al alegerilor, dar ar \u00eent\u00e2mpina dificult\u0103\u021bi \u00eentr-un eventual tur doi \u00een fa\u021ba unor contracandida\u021bi cu cote ridicate de \u00eencredere public\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u00cen acest context, organizarea alegerilor \u00eentr-un singur tur \u2013 sau crearea unor condi\u021bii politice care s\u0103 favorizeze o victorie rapid\u0103 \u2013 ar reprezenta o miz\u0103 major\u0103 pentru echipa preziden\u021bial\u0103. Referendumul privind sus\u021binerea unui plan de pace este, de asemenea, analizat ca instrument politic, menit s\u0103 consolideze legitimitatea unui eventual acord.<\/p>\n

Pe fundal, pre\u0219edintele a ini\u021biat o serie de mi\u0219c\u0103ri publice \u2013 \u00eent\u00e2lniri cu personalit\u0103\u021bi populare, deschidere mai mare fa\u021b\u0103 de mass-media, reconfigur\u0103ri \u00een zona executiv\u0103 \u2013 interpretate de unii anali\u0219ti drept parte a unei strategii de repozi\u021bionare \u00eenaintea unei posibile campanii.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tCe \u00ee\u0219i dore\u0219te Kremlinul?<\/p>\n

Orice scenariu r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00eens\u0103 condi\u021bionat de pozi\u021bia Moscovei.<\/p>\n

Pentru Vladimir Putin, men\u021binerea unei incertitudini controlate poate fi mai avantajoas\u0103 dec\u00e2t o \u00eencheiere rapid\u0103 a conflictului. Exist\u0103 cel pu\u021bin trei ipoteze discutate \u00een cercurile diplomatice:<\/p>\n

1. Un acord care s\u0103 influen\u021beze scena politic\u0103 ucrainean\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 a garanta stabilitate intern\u0103 la Kiev.<\/p>\n

2. Un compromis cu Washingtonul, \u00een care dinamica politic\u0103 din Ucraina ar deveni parte a unui aranjament mai larg.<\/p>\n

3. O \u00een\u021belegere determinat\u0103 de constr\u00e2ngeri interne ruse\u0219ti, inclusiv presiuni economice \u0219i dorin\u021ba de relaxare a sanc\u021biunilor.<\/p>\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, pozi\u021bia Statelor Unite r\u0103m\u00e2ne ambigu\u0103: pe de o parte, deschidere c\u0103tre dialog \u0219i posibile acorduri economice; pe de alt\u0103 parte, men\u021binerea presiunii prin sanc\u021biuni \u0219i sprijin pentru alia\u021bii europeni.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tUn rezultat politic \u00eenaintea p\u0103cii?<\/p>\n

Imaginea de ansamblu sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 formula \u201earmisti\u021biu scurt \u2013 alegeri \u2013 referendum \u2013 ratificare\u201d ar putea produce mai rapid un rezultat politic intern dec\u00e2t o solu\u021bie durabil\u0103 a r\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n

Un asemenea scenariu ar putea consolida puterea actualei conduceri de la Kiev. Dar nu este clar dac\u0103 ar garanta o pace stabil\u0103 sau doar o pauz\u0103 \u00eentr-un conflict \u00eenghe\u021bat.<\/p>\n

\u00cen spatele sticlei, pe\u0219tii continu\u0103 s\u0103 se mi\u0219te. Alian\u021bele se formeaz\u0103 \u0219i se destram\u0103, iar liniile de for\u021b\u0103 se redeseneaz\u0103 constant. Deznod\u0103m\u00e2ntul r\u0103m\u00e2ne incert.<\/p>\n

\u00centrebarea care persist\u0103 este dac\u0103 graba de a ob\u021bine un rezultat politic intern ar putea preceda \u2013 sau chiar compromite \u2013 ob\u021binerea unei p\u0103ci reale \u0219i sustenabile, sus\u021bine zn.ua.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Procesul de negociere privind ie\u0219irea din r\u0103zboiul ruso-ucrainean pare s\u0103 fi devenit un scop \u00een sine. \u00cen timp…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113252,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[334,32,33,31,36,37,27,74,34,35,7782,25,287,41,40,38,39,288,26,28,29,30,71,72,73],"class_list":{"0":"post-113251","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-international","8":"tag-alegeri","9":"tag-breaking-news","10":"tag-breakingnews","11":"tag-cele-mai-populare-subiecte","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-international","16":"tag-latest-news","17":"tag-latestnews","18":"tag-negocieri-de-pace","19":"tag-news","20":"tag-razboi-ucraina","21":"tag-ro","22":"tag-romana","23":"tag-romania","24":"tag-romanian","25":"tag-rusia-invazie","26":"tag-stiri","27":"tag-titluri","28":"tag-top-stories","29":"tag-topstories","30":"tag-world","31":"tag-world-news","32":"tag-worldnews"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ro\/116063026754165914","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113251\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}