{"id":121654,"date":"2026-02-25T05:47:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T05:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/121654\/"},"modified":"2026-02-25T05:47:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T05:47:09","slug":"eroarea-lui-putin-care-va-costa-curand-rusia-expert-in-spatiul-ex-sovietic-nu-exista-nicio-cale-sa-iasa-din-asta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/121654\/","title":{"rendered":"Eroarea lui Putin care va costa cur\u00e2nd Rusia. Expert \u00een spa\u021biul ex-sovietic: \u201eNu exist\u0103 nicio cale s\u0103 ias\u0103 din asta\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Istoric
\n\u0219i expert \u00een rela\u021bii interna\u021bionale, Sarah Paine, de la Johns
\nHopkins University \u0219i Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs,
\nexplic\u0103, \u00eentr-un podcast, gafa f\u0103cut\u0103 de Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103 care va
\nafecta pe termen mediu \u0219i lung viitorul acestei \u021b\u0103ri.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\"Armata<\/p>\n

Armata rus\u0103 nu a reu\u0219it \u00eenc\u0103 s\u0103 sparg\u0103 frontul \u00een Ucraina. FOTO: Pofimedia<\/p>\n

Ambi\u021biile
\nimperiale ale Federa\u021biei Ruse \u0219i calculele gre\u0219ite ale strategilor
\nde la Moscova gr\u0103besc ironic apusul puterii Krelminului. Pentru a
\nsfida Uniunea European\u0103 \u0219i Statele Unite ale Americii, Moscova a
\ncurtat intens China cu scopul de a a ob\u021bine o alian\u021b\u0103 ce nici m\u0103car nu o
\nsitueaz\u0103 pe picior de egalitate cu Beijingul.<\/p>\n

Istoric
\n\u0219i expert \u00een rela\u021bii interna\u021bionale, Sarah Paine, de la Johns
\nHopkins University \u0219i Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs,
\nexplic\u0103, \u00eentr-un podcast, de ce aceast\u0103 eroare va costa Rusia
\nenorm, chiar dac\u0103 deocamdat\u0103 pare s\u0103 o ajute.<\/p>\n

\u00cen
\npodcastul realizat de Pyotr Kurzin, una dintre vocile globale ale
\nKyiv Post<\/a>,
\nSarah Paine vorbe\u0219te despre gafa Kremlinului \u0219i despre faptul c\u0103
\n\u00eencet Rusia \u00eencepe s\u0103 se scufunde. Recunoscut\u0103 pentru stilul ei
\ndirect, care combin\u0103 istoria militar\u0103 cu analiza economic\u0103 dur\u0103,
\nexperta american\u0103 pune un diagnostic clar Rusiei \u0219i \u00eel explic\u0103
\nfolosind argumente clare, exact la fel cum un medic \u00ee\u0219i l\u0103mure\u0219te
\npacientul \u00een privin\u021ba afec\u021biunii \u0219i \u00eel ajut\u0103 s\u0103 se vindece.
\nDoar c\u0103 \u201epacientul\u201d de la Kremlin, se \u0219tie, refuz\u0103 orice
\n\u201etratament\u201d.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tCum a dec\u0103zut Rusia<\/p>\n

Paine
\nconsider\u0103 c\u0103 Rusia a ratat o oportunitate imens\u0103 de a deveni o
\nputere modern\u0103 dup\u0103 colapsul Uniunii Sovietice. Doar c\u0103 \u00een loc s\u0103
\ninvesteasc\u0103 \u00een infrastructur\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd putea s\u0103 beneficieze
\nde pe urma pre\u021burilor mari ale petrolului \u0219i s\u0103 promoveze
\nprincipiul statului de drept, Putin a ales calea r\u0103zboaielor \u0219i a
\natacat pe r\u00e2nd Cecenia, Georgia \u0219i Ucraina. Chiar dac\u0103 va \u00eenvinge
\nUcraina, la fel cum a f\u0103cut-o \u00een r\u0103zboaiele cu Cecenia \u0219i
\nGeorgia, pre\u021bul pl\u0103tit va fi unul enorm. Iar Rusia<\/a> deja deconteaz\u0103.
\n\u00cen prezent, \u201e\u021barul\u201d \u0219i-a \u00eempins \u021bara \u00eentr-un tratat de tip
\n\u201evassal state\u201d cu China \u0219i depinde total de Beijing pentru
\ntehnologie \u0219i capital.<\/p>\n

Americanca
\nd\u0103 un exemplu \u00een acest sens. \u201e\u00cen 1980, Uniunea Sovietic\u0103 avea
\nun PIB de \u0219ase ori mai mare dec\u00e2t al Chinei. Acum, dac\u0103 trecem la
\nPNB (Produsul Na\u021bional Brut), ast\u0103zi China are un PNB de 14 ori mai
\nmare dec\u00e2t al Rusiei\u201d, sus\u021bine Paine.<\/p>\n

De\u0219i
\nPutin \u0219i cei din jurul s\u0103u nu fac un secret din faptul c\u0103 vor s\u0103
\nrefac\u0103 fosta Uniune Sovietic\u0103 \u0219i s\u0103 redea Rusiei<\/a> for\u021ba din trecut,
\n\u00een realitate \u021bara este o umbr\u0103 a ceea ce a fost c\u00e2ndva.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tE doar o umbr\u0103 a fostei Uniuni Sovietice<\/p>\n

\u201eRusia
\neste o umbr\u0103 a Uniunii Sovietice. Va fi un stat vasal. Este deja un
\nstat vasal al Chinei \u0219i nu exist\u0103 nicio cale prin care s\u0103 ias\u0103
\ndin asta prea cur\u00e2nd. Rusia e terminat\u0103\u201d, crede Sarah Paine.<\/p>\n

Nici
\nm\u0103car viitorul lui Vladimir Putin nu mai pare roz \u00een acest context.
\nIar dup\u0103 moartea lui Putin, indiferent dac\u0103 aceasta va fi natural\u0103
\nsau va fi provocat\u0103, \u021bara va fi sf\u00e2\u0219\u00e2iat\u0103 de un r\u0103zboi pentru
\nputere specific. \u201eDictaturile sunt incredibil de ineficiente. Ele
\nrisipesc bog\u0103\u021bia \u0219i suprim\u0103 cre\u0219terea pentru c\u0103 nimeni nu are
\ngaran\u021bia c\u0103 va beneficia de munca sa; nu exist\u0103 stat de drept.
\nPutin va continua s\u0103 mizeze totul p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd va muri. \u0218i c\u00e2nd va
\nmuri, va fi o lupt\u0103 pentru putere f\u0103r\u0103 menajamente\u201d, preveste\u0219te
\nPaine.<\/p>\n

Cu
\nal\u021bi conduc\u0103tori, \u021bin\u00e2nd cont de resursele \u0219i de puterea sa
\nuria\u0219\u0103, Rusia ar fi fost azi un colos \u0219i un stat prosper \u0219i
\ndemocratic. A ratat \u00eens\u0103 o \u0219ans\u0103 unic\u0103 la \u00eenceputul anilor
\n2000, mai spune Paine.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\u0218ansa enorm\u0103 ratat\u0103 de Rusia<\/p>\n

\u201eA
\nexistat aceast\u0103 oportunitate minunat\u0103 pentru Rusia… a fost foarte
\ndificil dup\u0103 implozia Uniunii Sovietice, dar a existat o
\noportunitate minunat\u0103 prin anul 2000, c\u00e2nd pre\u021burile petrolului au
\ncrescut mult. Aceea ar fi fost ocazia s\u0103 cure\u021be sistemul legal,
\ns\u0103-l fac\u0103 mai favorabil pentru micile afaceri, ca ele s\u0103 poat\u0103
\nface bani \u0219i s\u0103-\u0219i p\u0103streze banii \u0219i s\u0103 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021beasc\u0103
\nsistemul de drumuri.
\n\u00cen
\nschimb, Putin a urcat la putere pe o diet\u0103 de r\u0103zboaie. Vine la
\nputere \u00een al doilea r\u0103zboi cecen, nivel\u00e2nd Cecenia pentru a o
\np\u0103stra… apoi face r\u0103zboiul din 2008 pentru a lua Osetia \u0219i
\nAbhazia de la Georgia. Aceste lucruri sunt populare \u00een Rusia\u201d,
\npuncteaz\u0103 ea.<\/p>\n

\u00cen
\nceasul al 13-lea, Rusia ar mai avea o \u0219ans\u0103, dar pare c\u0103 \u00eei d\u0103
\ncu piciorul \u0219i refuz\u0103 s\u0103 prind\u0103 \u201eultimul tren\u201d. Sarah Paine explic\u0103 despre ce este vorba.<\/p>\n

\u201eSpre
\ndeosebire de China, Rusia nu are aceast\u0103 tradi\u021bie comercial\u0103
\nvibrant\u0103. China a avut-o mereu. \u00cenc\u0103 de la Drumul M\u0103t\u0103sii, China
\na produs bunuri de ultim\u0103 genera\u021bie pe care toat\u0103 lumea \u0219i le
\ndorea. Pe atunci erau m\u0103t\u0103surile \u0219i por\u021belanul. Acum sunt tot
\nfelul de aparate electrice. Sunt sigur\u0103 c\u0103 ai c\u00e2teva \u00een
\napartamentul t\u0103u \u0219i sunt foarte bune. Deci Rusia e terminat\u0103. S-au
\n\u00eentors la \u00abjugul mongol\u00bb. Singura lor cale de ie\u0219ire ar fi s\u0103 se
\nopreasc\u0103, s\u0103 se retrag\u0103 din Ucraina, s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103 repara\u021bii \u0219i
\ns\u0103 se \u00eentoarc\u0103 \u00een Europa. Dar asta nu se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla
\nniciodat\u0103\u201d, \u00eencheie Sarah Paige.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Istoric \u0219i expert \u00een rela\u021bii interna\u021bionale, Sarah Paine, de la Johns Hopkins University \u0219i Henry A. Kissinger Center…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79809,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[32,33,31,125,36,37,27,34,35,25,689,37273,916,41,40,38,39,45,37272,26,28,29,30,81],"class_list":{"0":"post-121654","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-titluri","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breakingnews","10":"tag-cele-mai-populare-subiecte","11":"tag-china","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-news","18":"tag-putin","19":"tag-pyotr-kurzin","20":"tag-razboi-in-ucraina","21":"tag-ro","22":"tag-romana","23":"tag-romania","24":"tag-romanian","25":"tag-rusia","26":"tag-sarah-paine","27":"tag-stiri","28":"tag-titluri","29":"tag-top-stories","30":"tag-topstories","31":"tag-video"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ro\/116129696620852422","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121654\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}