{"id":130985,"date":"2026-03-09T17:25:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T17:25:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/130985\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T17:25:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T17:25:04","slug":"expert-pretul-motorinei-poate-ajunge-in-romania-la-115-lei-in-cel-mai-fericit-caz-si-168-in-cel-mai-pesimist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/130985\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert: Pre\u021bul motorinei poate ajunge \u00een Rom\u00e2nia la 11,5 lei, \u00een cel mai fericit caz \u0219i 16,8 \u00een cel mai pesimist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cen trei luni de r\u0103zboi \u00een Orientul Mijlociu pre\u021bul motorinei va ajunge \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u00een cel mai optimist scenariu la 11,5 lei, iar \u00een cel mai pesimist scenariu la 16,8 lei\/litru, potrivit calculelor efectuate de Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI).<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773077104_212_index.jpeg\" alt=\"Un b\u0103rbat alimenteaz\u0103 ma\u0219ina cu carburant\" width=\"1400\" height=\"750\" loading=\"eager\" class=\"svelte-h45upf\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Pre\u021bul motorinei poate ajunge \u00een Rom\u00e2nia la 16,8 lei\/litru. Foto Shutterstock<\/p>\n<p>Pia\u021ba combustibililor din Europa este determinat\u0103 de c\u00e2teva variabile structurale majore: <a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/comisia-europeana-statele-ue-au-suficient-petrol-2513763.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">evolu\u021bia \u021bi\u021beiului Brent <\/a>(benchmark global), marjele de rafinare pentru motorin\u0103 (gasoil), costurile logistice \u0219i cererea sezonier\u0103, cursul USD\/RON \u0219i nivelul taxelor \u0219i accizelor din Rom\u00e2nia, a afirmat luni expertul \u00een energie, estim\u00e2nd trei scenarii privind evolu\u021bia pre\u021burilor motorinei \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u00een cazul \u00een care conflictul din Orientul Mijlociu continu\u0103 timp de trei luni.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit expertului, \u00een mod normal exist\u0103 o rela\u021bie<br \/>\ndirect\u0103 \u00eentre aceste elemente: Brent &#8211; Motorina ARA &#8211; Motorina<br \/>\nRom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n<p>\nHub-ul ARA<br \/>\n(Amsterdam\u2013Rotterdam\u2013Antwerp) este referin\u021ba european\u0103 pentru<br \/>\nprodusele rafinate, iar evolu\u021bia pre\u021bului motorinei \u00een acest hub<br \/>\nse transmite relativ rapid c\u0103tre pie\u021bele regionale, inclusiv<br \/>\nRom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773077104_219_index.png\" alt=\"image\" width=\"1400\" height=\"486\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"svelte-h45upf\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\nScenariul pesimist \u2013 dac\u0103 \u00een<br \/>\nprimele 10 zile pre\u021bul motorinei ARA a crescut cu 80% \u00een<br \/>\nurm\u0103toarele 80 de zile estim\u0103m o cre\u0219tere de 117%\n<\/p>\n<p>\u201eEste<br \/>\nposibil \u00een cazul unei tensiuni severe pe pia\u021ba produselor rafinate\u201d, a explicat expertul \u00een energie numind deficitul de motorin\u0103 \u00een Europa, sanc\u021biuni suplimentare asupra produselor rafinate ruse\u0219ti, opriri neplanificate \u00een rafin\u0103rii europene \u0219i cre\u0219terea cererii \u00eenainte de sezonul agricol\u00a0 \u0219i sezonul transporturilor.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit acestuia, un<br \/>\nnivel de 2.850 USD\/ton\u0103 ar reprezenta un \u0219oc major al pie\u021bei, mult<br \/>\npeste episoadele din criza energetic\u0103 din 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Scenariul<br \/>\nmediu aceea\u0219i cre\u0219tere \u00een urm\u0103toarele 80 de zile ca \u00een primele<br \/>\n10 zile (+79%)<\/p>\n<p>Acesta<br \/>\nreflect\u0103 o pia\u021b\u0103 tensionat\u0103, dar func\u021bional\u0103:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>cere<br \/>\n\tsezonier\u0103 ridicat\u0103<\/li>\n<li>stocuri<br \/>\n\trelativ sc\u0103zute \u00een Europa<\/li>\n<li>marje<br \/>\n\tde rafinare stabil\u0103<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Acesta<br \/>\neste scenariul fundamental cel mai realist.<\/p>\n<p>Scenariul<br \/>\noptimist (+41%)<\/p>\n<p>Ar<br \/>\nnecesita o stabilizare global\u0103 a ofertei:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>cre\u0219terea<br \/>\n\tproduc\u021biei rafin\u0103riilor<\/li>\n<li>reducerea<br \/>\n\tmarjelor de rafinare<\/li>\n<li>\u00eencetinirea<br \/>\n\teconomiei globale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u021ai\u021bei<br \/>\nBrent<\/p>\n<p>\nPre\u021burile Brent au crescut cu<br \/>\np\u00e2n\u0103 la 15%, \u00een weekend ajung\u00e2nd la peste 100 de dolari pe baril,<br \/>\ndup\u0103 ce principalii produc\u0103tori din Orientul Mijlociu au redus<br \/>\nproduc\u021bia, deoarece Str\u00e2mtoarea Hormuz, o zon\u0103 crucial\u0103, r\u0103m\u00e2ne<br \/>\n\u00eenchis\u0103 din cauza r\u0103zboiului cu Iranul. Kuweitul, al cincilea cel<br \/>\nmai mare produc\u0103tor din OPEC, a anun\u021bat reduceri preventive ale<br \/>\nproduc\u021biei de petrol \u0219i ale produc\u021biei de rafin\u0103rie, invoc\u00e2nd<br \/>\namenin\u021b\u0103rile iraniene la adresa transportului maritim prin<br \/>\nStr\u00e2mtoarea Ormuz. \u00cen Irak, produc\u021bia celor trei principale<br \/>\nc\u00e2mpuri petroliere din sud a sc\u0103zut cu aproximativ 70%, la 1,3<br \/>\nmilioane de barili pe zi, fa\u021b\u0103 de 4,3 milioane \u00eenainte de r\u0103zboiul<br \/>\ncu Iranul.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773077104_479_index.png\" alt=\"image\" width=\"1400\" height=\"420\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"svelte-h45upf\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Scenariul pesimist peste 80 de zile (+67%)<\/p>\n<p>Implica un \u0219oc geopolitic major sau un deficit global semnificativ:<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 conflict major \u00een Orientul Mijlociu<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 reducerea produc\u021biei c\u0103tre OPEC+<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 perturb\u0103ri majore \u00een transportul maritim (Hormuz, Suez)<\/p>\n<p>Un Brent la 180 USD\/baril ar genera probabil:<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 infla\u021bie energetic\u0103 global\u0103<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 presiune puternic\u0103 asupra tuturor combustibililor.<\/p>\n<p>Scenariul mediu peste 80 de zile (+44%)<\/p>\n<p>Acest scenariu presupus:<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 cerere global\u0103 \u00een cre\u0219tere (China + transport global)<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 ofert\u0103 relativ limitat\u0103<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 pia\u021b\u0103 structural tensionat\u0103<\/p>\n<p>Intervalul 120\u2013135 USD\/baril este frecvent considerat nivelul unei pie\u021be petrolier tensionate.<\/p>\n<p>Scenariul optimist peste 80 de zile (+20%)<\/p>\n<p>Presupune:<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 cre\u0219tere moderat\u0103 a cererii<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 stabilitate \u00een produc\u021bia global\u0103<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 absen\u021ba \u0219ocurilor geopolitice.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773077104_379_index.png\" alt=\"image\" width=\"1400\" height=\"490\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"svelte-h45upf\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Pre\u021bul la pomp\u0103 este determinat de:<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 pre\u021bul produsului rafinat (ARA)<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 costuri logistice<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 Marja distribuitorilor<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 accize<\/p>\n<p>    \u2022 TVA.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eCapacitatea de rafinare a Europei a sc\u0103zut \u00een ultimul deceniu. Mai multe rafin\u0103rii au fost \u00eenchise sau convertite pentru produc\u021bia de biocombustibili, iar sanc\u021biunile asupra produselor rafinate ruse\u0219ti au eliminat o surs\u0103 major\u0103 de aprovizionare pentru pia\u021ba european\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Rezultatul este o pia\u021b\u0103 caracterizat\u0103 de deficit structural de distilate medii, categoria \u00een care intr\u0103 motorina\u201d, a afirmat expertul \u00een energie.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit acestuia, \u00een acest context, \u201eorice cre\u0219tere a pre\u021bului petrolului brut se transmite rapid \u00een pre\u021bul motorinei\u201d, iar rela\u021bia dintre cele dou\u0103 pie\u021be este amplificat\u0103 de a\u0219a-numitul crack spread diesel, diferen\u021ba dintre pre\u021bul petrolului brut \u0219i cel al produsului rafinat. <\/p>\n<p>\u201eC\u00e2nd cererea este ridicat\u0103 \u0219i capacitatea de rafinare limitat\u0103, acest spread se l\u0103rge\u0219te, iar motorina devine mai scump\u0103 chiar \u0219i dec\u00e2t ar sugera evolu\u021bia petrolului.<\/p>\n<p>Pia\u021ba petrolului r\u0103m\u00e2ne extrem de volatil\u0103, semnalele actuale indic\u0103 o probabilitate ridicat\u0103 de cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor combustibililor \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni.<\/p>\n<p>Pentru Rom\u00e2nia, \u00eentrebarea nu este dac\u0103 motorina se va scumpi. <a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/preturile-majorate-la-pompa-sunt-doar-inceputul-2513543.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u00centrebarea este c\u00e2t de repede \u0219i c\u00e2t de mult<\/a>\u201d, a afirmat Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u00cen trei luni de r\u0103zboi \u00een Orientul Mijlociu pre\u021bul motorinei va ajunge \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u00een cel mai optimist&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":130986,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[11022,1126,32,33,31,38151,14337,36,37,27,34,35,7865,25,1120,39471,41,40,38,39,26,28,29,30],"class_list":{"0":"post-130985","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-romania","8":"tag-aei","9":"tag-analiza","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-cele-mai-populare-subiecte","13":"tag-conflict-in-orientul-mijlociu","14":"tag-dumitru-chisalita","15":"tag-featured-news","16":"tag-featurednews","17":"tag-headlines","18":"tag-latest-news","19":"tag-latestnews","20":"tag-motorina","21":"tag-news","22":"tag-petrol","23":"tag-pretul","24":"tag-ro","25":"tag-romana","26":"tag-romania","27":"tag-romanian","28":"tag-stiri","29":"tag-titluri","30":"tag-top-stories","31":"tag-topstories"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ro\/116200388996189967","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=130985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130985\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/130986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=130985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=130985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=130985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}