{"id":233762,"date":"2026-07-17T15:52:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T15:52:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/233762\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T15:52:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T15:52:12","slug":"romania-in-pragul-unui-harakiri-economic-riscam-sa-pierdem-1-din-pib-intr-o-singura-luna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/233762\/","title":{"rendered":"Rom\u00e2nia, \u00een pragul unui \u201eharakiri economic\u201d: risc\u0103m s\u0103 pierdem 1% din PIB \u00eentr-o singur\u0103 lun\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rom\u00e2nia se afl\u0103 \u00een fa\u021ba unui iminent blocaj financiar \u0219i politic, avertizeaz\u0103 premierul Ilie Bolojan, care sus\u021bine c\u0103 \u021bara risc\u0103 s\u0103 piard\u0103 4,5 miliarde de euro din PNRR \u2014 echivalentul a 1% din PIB \u2014 chiar p\u00e2n\u0103 luna viitoare, din cauza a opt proiecte de lege blocate \u00een Parlament. \u00centr-o analiz\u0103 pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, analistul economic Adrian Negrescu explic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 ratarea acestor fonduri ar putea duce la retrogradarea Rom\u00e2niei la ratingul de \u021bar\u0103 junk, deprecierea leului \u0219i blocarea marilor \u0219antiere, \u00een timp ce analistul politic Alexandru Coita avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 disputele electorale dintre PNL \u0219i PSD risc\u0103 s\u0103 arunce \u021bara \u00eentr-un haos de tip \u201ebulgarizare\u201d, singura solu\u021bie real\u0103 fiind un nou acord na\u021bional de tip Snagov.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"bani <\/p>\n

Putem pierde echivalentul a 1% din PIB p\u00e2n\u0103 luna viitoare, din cauza rat\u0103rii PNRR. FOTO: Adev\u0103rul<\/p>\n

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Premierul Ilie Bolojan a avertizat c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia risc\u0103 s\u0103 piard\u0103 echivalentul a 1% din Produsul Intern Brut p\u00e2n\u0103 luna viitoare<\/a>, dac\u0103 cele opt proiecte de lege asumate prin Planul Na\u021bional de Redresare \u0219i Rezilien\u021b\u0103 (PNRR) nu sunt adoptate \u00een Parlament.<\/p>\n

\u00cen acest context, Bolojan a prezentat stadiul proiectelor legislative care ar trebui s\u0103 fie aprobate pentru a \u00eencasa 4,5 miliarde de euro nerambursabili, subliniind c\u0103 legea salariz\u0103rii \u00een sistemul public se afl\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een consultare cu Comisia European\u0103.<\/p>\n

Analistul economic Adrian Negrescu a explicat ce ar \u00eensemna pierderea miliardelor de euro, \u00een contextul economic fragil al \u021b\u0103rii noastre.<\/p>\n

\u201eDin cele opt proiecte de legi pentru PNRR care trebuie votate \u00een Parlament depinde un procent din PIB, adic\u0103 aproximativ 4,5 miliarde de euro, iar pierderea acestei sume ar avea consecin\u021be grave pentru economia Rom\u00e2niei. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, deficitul bugetar ar dep\u0103\u0219i \u021binta de 6,2%, deoarece ace\u0219ti bani sunt deja inclu\u0219i \u00een schema bugetar\u0103, iar dac\u0103 nu vor veni, va trebui fie s\u0103 \u00eei suplinim din alte surse, fie s\u0103 ne asum\u0103m un deficit mai mare, ceea ce ar fi o misiune sinuciga\u0219\u0103, un fel de harakiri economic, \u00eentruc\u00e2t agen\u021biile de rating ar retrograda Rom\u00e2nia la categoria junk, cu toate efectele negative cunoscute.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Este absolut esen\u021bial ca, \u00een urm\u0103toarele 30 de zile, s\u0103 aprob\u0103m m\u0103car o parte din aceste legi sau s\u0103 renegociem condi\u021bionalit\u0103\u021bile din PNRR, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t banii s\u0103 fie lega\u021bi de investi\u021bii \u00een infrastructur\u0103, nu de reforme politice pe care nu le putem duce la bun sf\u00e2r\u0219it din cauza intereselor electorale sau a birocra\u021biei, iar faptul c\u0103 nu am reu\u0219it s\u0103 mut\u0103m finan\u021barea c\u0103tre proiecte fezabile a fost o poveste frumoas\u0103, dar f\u0103r\u0103 happy end. Este pu\u021bin probabil ca Parlamentul s\u0103 voteze aceste legi \u00een perioada urm\u0103toare, de\u0219i ar fi o minune ca parlamentarii s\u0103 dea dovad\u0103 de responsabilitate na\u021bional\u0103\u201d, a explicat Negrescu pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Cei 4,5 miliarde de euro, dac\u0103 vin, intr\u0103 \u00een conturile trezoreriei \u0219i se cheltuiesc \u00een lei. Pierderea fondurilor ar \u00eensemna o depreciere mai mare a leului, ceea ce scumpe\u0219te datoria extern\u0103 deja existent\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te impactul asupra monedei, cei 4,5 miliarde de euro sunt esen\u021biali pentru stabilitatea leului, deoarece, odat\u0103 intra\u021bi \u00een \u021bar\u0103, ajut\u0103 la men\u021binerea cursului euro-leu \u0219i la prevenirea unui nou puseu infla\u021bionist, iar \u00een lipsa lor, ne-am confrunta cu o depreciere mai mare a leului \u0219i cu scumpirea datoriei externe existente, iar cele mai multe dintre \u0219antierele \u0219i lucr\u0103rile deja \u00eencepute ar fi \u00een pericol de \u00eenchidere, deoarece nu am avea de unde s\u0103 finan\u021b\u0103m aceste investi\u021bii, cu excep\u021bia \u00eemprumuturilor de pe pie\u021bele externe la dob\u00e2nzi mult mai mari\u201d, a mai ad\u0103ugat analistul economic Adrian Negrescu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Un joc politic de scurt\u0103 durat\u0103 <\/p>\n

La r\u00e2ndul lui, analistul politic Alexandru Coita consider\u0103 c\u0103 situa\u021bia actual\u0103 este, \u00een esen\u021b\u0103, un joc politic de scurt\u0103 durat\u0103, \u00een care fiecare actor \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 se pozi\u021bioneze ca fiind responsabil, iar declara\u021biile recente, precum cele ale pre\u0219edintelui PSD, Sorin Grindeanu, care l-a acuzat pe Ilie Bolojan \u0219i pe cei din PNL c\u0103 nu sunt suficient de dornici s\u0103 promoveze legile necesare pentru PNRR<\/a>, \u00een timp ce PSD ar fi adoptat deja patru astfel de legi, sunt dovada acestui comportament.<\/p>\n

\u201eDin punctul meu de vedere, aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie reprezint\u0103, \u00een esen\u021b\u0103, un joc politic de scurt\u0103 durat\u0103, \u00een care fiecare actor implicat \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 se pozi\u021bioneze ca fiind responsabil, iar declara\u021biile recente, precum cele ale pre\u0219edintelui PSD, Sorin Grindeanu, care l-a acuzat pe Ilie Bolojan \u0219i pe cei din PNL c\u0103 nu sunt suficient de dornici s\u0103 promoveze legile necesare pentru PNRR, \u00een timp ce PSD ar fi adoptat deja patru astfel de legi, sunt dovada acestui comportament.<\/p>\n

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\u00cen loc s\u0103 transforme PNRR-ul \u00eentr-un teatru de lupt\u0103 politic\u0103, partidele ar trebui s\u0103 colaboreze \u0219i s\u0103 depun\u0103 toate eforturile pentru ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 beneficieze de ace\u0219ti bani, iar dup\u0103 finalizarea acestui proiect crucial, adic\u0103 dup\u0103 3 septembrie, pot s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i continue disputele politice, pentru c\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 atunci economia este \u00eentr-un moment extrem de delicat, iar agen\u021biile de rating urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 decid\u0103 asupra statutului Rom\u00e2niei ca pia\u021b\u0103 de investi\u021bii, iar mizele sunt prea mari pentru a risipi aceast\u0103 oportunitate\u201d, a relatat Coita.<\/p>\n

Coita a analizat \u0219i pozi\u021bia premierului Ilie Bolojan, subliniind c\u0103 brandul s\u0103u politic este construit pe responsabilitate, dar a avertizat c\u0103 PNL \u0219i, posibil, USR au o viziune \u00eenc\u0103rcat\u0103 de optimism excesiv, consider\u00e2nd c\u0103 alegerile anticipate ar fi solu\u021bia pentru a propulsa partidele de centru-dreapta la guvernare.<\/p>\n

PIB-ul Rom\u00e2niei a sc\u0103zut \u00een primul trimestru din 2026. Datele INS indic\u0103 o u\u0219oar\u0103 reducere <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cen ceea ce \u00eel prive\u0219te pe Ilie Bolojan, brandul s\u0103u politic este construit pe responsabilitate, dar am impresia c\u0103 PNL \u0219i, posibil, USR au o viziune \u00eenc\u0103rcat\u0103 de optimism excesiv, consider\u00e2nd c\u0103 alegerile anticipate ar fi solu\u021bia pentru a propulsa partidele de centru-dreapta la guvernare, fie singure, al\u0103turi de UDMR, \u00eentr-un scenariu pozitiv, fie ca principal\u0103 for\u021b\u0103 de opozi\u021bie \u00eempotriva AUR, \u00eentr-un scenariu negativ, \u00eens\u0103 eu m\u0103 \u00eendoiesc de reu\u0219ita acestui plan, iar aceast\u0103 abordare mi se pare extrem de periculoas\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia, motiv pentru care a\u0219 sf\u0103tui pruden\u021b\u0103 maxim\u0103 \u00een locul unei euforii nejustificate, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 PNL a fost mai degrab\u0103 aliat cu PSD dec\u00e2t separat de acesta de-a lungul timpului\u201d, a relatat Coita.<\/p>\n

Solu\u021bia: un plan cuprinz\u0103tor, asem\u0103n\u0103tor acordurilor de la Snagov <\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia analistului, solu\u021bia pentru ie\u0219irea din criz\u0103 nu o reprezint\u0103 un a\u0219a-numit guvern de armisti\u021biu, ci conturarea unui plan cuprinz\u0103tor pentru Rom\u00e2nia, at\u00e2t pe plan economic, c\u00e2t \u0219i politic, care s\u0103 semene cu acordurile de la Snagov din 1995.<\/p>\n

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\u201e\u00cen opinia mea, solu\u021bia nu o reprezint\u0103 a\u0219a-numit guvern de armisti\u021biu, fie el \u0219i pe termen scurt, ci mai degrab\u0103 conturarea unui plan cuprinz\u0103tor pentru Rom\u00e2nia, at\u00e2t pe plan economic, c\u00e2t \u0219i politic, care s\u0103 semene cu acordurile de la Snagov din 1995, ce au stat la baza parcursului european al \u021b\u0103rii. Cred c\u0103 este necesar\u0103 o a doua versiune a acestor acorduri, adaptat\u0103 la pozi\u021bionarea geostrategic\u0103 actual\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei \u0219i la un proiect economic ambi\u021bios care s\u0103 ne duc\u0103 spre nivelul economiilor dezvoltate, iar pentru aceasta este nevoie de expertiz\u0103 \u0219i de speciali\u0219ti, dar consider c\u0103 acesta este singurul proiect care ar putea scoate \u021bara din criza actual\u0103\u201d, a mai explicat analistul politic.<\/p>\n

Coita a subliniat c\u0103, \u00een locul jocurilor de pozi\u021bionare \u0219i tacticilor de branding, partidele ar trebui s\u0103 treac\u0103 la dezbateri despre m\u0103suri concrete \u0219i obiective pentru Rom\u00e2nia, pentru a evita riscul de \u201ebulgarizare\u201d \u2013 o situa\u021bie similar\u0103 cu cea a Bulgariei, care timp de mai mul\u021bi ani a fost condus\u0103 de un guvern f\u0103r\u0103 puteri depline.<\/p>\n

\u201ePe scurt, ar fi foarte potrivit ca partidele politice s\u0103 treac\u0103 de la discu\u021biile centrate pe persoane \u0219i atacuri la dezbateri despre m\u0103suri concrete \u0219i obiective pentru Rom\u00e2nia, pentru c\u0103 astfel lucrurile s-ar putea cristaliza, \u00een timp ce jocurile de pozi\u021bionare \u0219i tacticile de branding, \u00een care Bolojan \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 par\u0103 responsabil, iar Grindeanu vrea s\u0103 arate c\u0103 este \u00een opozi\u021bie \u0219i nu sus\u021bine m\u0103surile de austeritate, nu vor duce la nimic bun, ci doar la haos \u0219i la bulgarizarea Rom\u00e2niei, adic\u0103 riscul de a ajunge \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie similar\u0103 cu cea a Bulgariei, care timp de trei-patru ani a fost practic f\u0103r\u0103 guvernare\u201d, a relatat analistul politic.<\/p>\n

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\u201eNu po\u021bi s\u0103 folose\u0219ti sigla PNL \u0219i s\u0103 pretinzi c\u0103 o iei de la zero\u201d <\/p>\n

Cu privire la declara\u021bia premierului, potrivit c\u0103ruia proiectele dificile sau cu poten\u021bial de controvers\u0103 politic\u0103 au fost am\u00e2nate de cei care aveau obliga\u021bia s\u0103 le promoveze, analistul politic consider\u0103 c\u0103 Ilie Bolojan ignor\u0103 faptul c\u0103 PNL a f\u0103cut parte din coali\u021bia de guvernare al\u0103turi de PSD \u00een ultimii ani.<\/p>\n

\u201eBolojan nu se poate delimita complet de PNL ca partid, pentru c\u0103, \u00een mod corect \u0219i firesc, dac\u0103 ar dori s\u0103 se deta\u0219eze de imaginea acestui partid, ar trebui s\u0103 fondeze o nou\u0103 forma\u021biune politic\u0103, \u00eentruc\u00e2t nu po\u021bi s\u0103 folose\u0219ti sigla Partidului Na\u021bional Liberal, care a guvernat al\u0103turi de PSD ani de zile, \u0219i \u00een acela\u0219i timp s\u0103 pretinzi c\u0103 ai ap\u0103rut din senin acum c\u00e2teva luni \u0219i c\u0103 o iei de la zero, pentru c\u0103 acest lucru nu este adev\u0103rat \u0219i nu este corect fa\u021b\u0103 de electoratul Rom\u00e2niei.<\/p>\n

Sorin Grindeanu acuz\u0103 \u201eparlamentarii puterii\u201d c\u0103 nu au depus niciun proiect de lege privind restan\u021bele din PNRR: \u201eGo, Bolo!\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cen plus, mul\u021bi dintre membrii PNL se aliniaz\u0103 \u00een spatele domnului Bolojan nu neap\u0103rat pentru c\u0103 ar crede cu adev\u0103rat \u00een abordarea sa, ci pentru c\u0103 au impresia c\u0103 el le poate cre\u0219te scorul partidului \u00een sondaje, ceea ce denot\u0103 o pozi\u021bionare mai degrab\u0103 oportunist\u0103, iar \u00een acest context, este de men\u021bionat c\u0103 domnul Bolojan este un membru vechi al PNL, chiar dinainte de fuziunea cu PDL din 2014, \u0219i a candidat pe liste comune la Bihor \u00eempreun\u0103 cu PSD, ceea ce confer\u0103 o not\u0103 de ipocrizie demersului s\u0103u actual\u201d, a mai relatat Alexandru Coita.<\/p>\n

\u00cen final, analistul a comentat \u0219i impactul retoricii suveraniste asupra votan\u021bilor, subliniind c\u0103 ideea renun\u021b\u0103rii la banii europeni pentru a c\u00e2\u0219tiga suveranitate este un concept imatur, care nu va convinge majoritatea rom\u00e2nilor.<\/p>\n

\u201eEste dificil de estimat impactul retoricii suveraniste asupra lui Ilie Bolojan, deoarece electoratul acestuia este distinct fa\u021b\u0103 de cel al AUR \u0219i SOS, iar cele dou\u0103 tabere nu se afl\u0103 \u00eentr-o concuren\u021b\u0103 direct\u0103, dat fiind c\u0103 sus\u021bin\u0103torii lui Bolojan nu sunt predispu\u0219i la mesaje extremiste, ci \u00een\u021beleg importan\u021ba fondurilor europene pentru dezvoltarea Rom\u00e2niei, iar ideea c\u0103 renun\u021barea la banii europeni ar aduce suveranitate sau autonomie este un concept imatur, care nu va convinge majoritatea rom\u00e2nilor, \u00eentruc\u00e2t ace\u0219tia sunt con\u0219tien\u021bi c\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul european, \u021bara s-ar afla ast\u0103zi \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie mult mai dificil\u0103. <\/p>\n

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Prin urmare, nu v\u0103d ca aceast\u0103 strategie de comunicare s\u0103 fie benefic\u0103 pentru AUR, ci mai degrab\u0103 ar putea mobiliza doar nucleul dur suveranist, dar nu va atrage votan\u021bi din zona lui Bolojan, care apar\u021bin unui segment care nu este sensibil la retorica anti-european\u0103. \u00cen schimb, observ c\u0103, dac\u0103 AUR va persista \u00een aceast\u0103 direc\u021bie, risc\u0103 s\u0103 rateze \u0219ansa de a deveni un partid acceptabil la nivel politic \u0219i s\u0103 se cantoneze \u00eentr-o pozi\u021bie similar\u0103 cu AFD-ul din Germania, \u00een jurul c\u0103ruia se formeaz\u0103 un cordon sanitar, iar dac\u0103 a\u0219 fi \u00een locul lor, le-a\u0219 recomanda s\u0103 evite astfel de mesaje extremiste, pentru c\u0103, indiferent de rezultatul electoral, ele genereaz\u0103 respingere \u0219i izolare \u00een zona politic\u0103 mainstream\u201d, a conchis Alexandru Coita.<\/p>\n

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