{"id":234140,"date":"2026-07-18T05:15:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T05:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/234140\/"},"modified":"2026-07-18T05:15:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T05:15:15","slug":"sobolanul-prins-in-colt-de-ce-un-putin-incoltit-este-cel-mai-mare-pericol-pentru-ucraina-si-occident","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/234140\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201e\u0218obolanul prins \u00een col\u021b\u201d: De ce un Putin \u00eencol\u021bit este cel mai mare pericol pentru Ucraina \u0219i Occident"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00centr-o analiz\u0103
\npublicat\u0103 \u00een The Independent, editorialistul Owen Matthews scrie c\u0103 Rusia se
\nconfrunt\u0103 cu tensiuni economice \u0219i politice tot mai mari, dar avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 un
\nVladimir Putin \u00eempins la limit\u0103 ar putea reac\u021biona imprevizibil.<\/p>\n

\"Vladimir <\/p>\n

Vladimir Putin r\u0103m\u00e2ne imprevizibil. FOTO: AFP<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Criza combustibilului
\najunge la popula\u021bie <\/p>\n

Owen Matthews,
\neditorialist la The Independent, <\/a>scrie c\u0103 responsabilii politici de la Kremlin
\n\u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 un echilibru \u00eentre nevoile uria\u0219e ale armatei \u0219i
\nmen\u021binerea stabilit\u0103\u021bii sociale pe care Vladimir Putin \u0219i-a construit imaginea
\npolitic\u0103.<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, dup\u0103
\npatru ani de r\u0103zboi, costurile conflictului nu mai apar doar \u00een rapoartele
\neconomice sau \u00een bilan\u021burile militare. Pentru tot mai mul\u021bi ru\u0219i, ele se v\u0103d \u00een
\nlucruri obi\u0219nuite: lipsa combustibilului, pre\u021buri mai mari \u0219i o economie care
\n\u00eencetine\u0219te.<\/p>\n

Una dintre cele mai
\nvizibile probleme este criza carburan\u021bilor, provocat\u0103 \u00een principal de atacurile
\nucrainene cu drone asupra infrastructurii energetice ruse\u0219ti. Dup\u0103 mai multe
\ns\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni \u00een care rafin\u0103rii \u0219i depozite de combustibil au fost lovite,
\nnumeroase regiuni au \u00eenceput s\u0103 se confrunte cu lipsuri.<\/p>\n

\u00cen analiza sa,
\nMatthews \u00eel citeaz\u0103 pe Igor Karpov, un \u0219ofer din Moscova care a fost nevoit s\u0103
\nse trezeasc\u0103 \u00eenainte de r\u0103s\u0103rit pentru a sta la coad\u0103 la o benzin\u0103rie.<\/p>\n

Karpov, inginer
\npensionar \u0219i om de afaceri \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 de 61 de ani, a petrecut \u0219ase ore pentru a
\numple rezervorul SUV-ului s\u0103u Mitsubishi \u0219i c\u00e2teva canistre p\u0103strate pentru
\nsitua\u021bii de urgen\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eAm v\u0103zut \u00een ac\u021biune o mare superputere energetic\u0103\u201d, a
\nspus el ironic. \u201eDar ar trebui s\u0103 fiu recunosc\u0103tor – statul la coad\u0103 pentru
\nbenzin\u0103 m-a f\u0103cut s\u0103 m\u0103 simt din nou t\u00e2n\u0103r. \u00cen anii \u201980, c\u00e2nd mi-am cump\u0103rat
\nprima ma\u0219in\u0103, trebuia s\u0103 st\u0103m toat\u0103 noaptea la coad\u0103 \u0219i s\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103m cupoane de
\nra\u021bionalizare de pe pia\u021ba neagr\u0103\u201d, a povestit acesta.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\"\u00cen <\/p>\n

\u00cen Rusia, se st\u0103 la coad\u0103 la benzin\u0103. FOTO: arhiv\u0103<\/p>\n

Pentru autorul
\nanalizei, astfel de situa\u021bii arat\u0103 cum r\u0103zboiul \u00eencepe s\u0103 afecteze via\u021ba
\ncotidian\u0103 a ru\u0219ilor \u015fi noteaz\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een realitate, cozile din Moscova<\/a> reprezint\u0103,
\n\u00eens\u0103, doar o parte din problem\u0103. Pe Telegram au ap\u0103rut numeroase imagini cu
\nblocaje de zeci de kilometri \u00een regiunea Krasnodar \u0219i cu probleme grave de
\naprovizionare \u00een Daghestan, Tuva \u0219i alte zone \u00eendep\u0103rtate ale Rusiei.<\/p>\n

Dronele ucrainene
\nlovesc infrastructura din spatele frontului <\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Owen Matthews,
\no alt\u0103 mare problem\u0103 pentru Vladimir Putin este faptul c\u0103 Ucraina a reu\u0219it s\u0103
\nfoloseasc\u0103 drone de mici dimensiuni pentru a lovi obiective aflate la sute sau
\nchiar mii de kilometri de linia frontului, afect\u00e2nd infrastructur\u0103 pe care
\nRusia o credea protejat\u0103 de distan\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Matthews citeaz\u0103 date
\npublicate de Novaya Gazeta, potrivit c\u0103rora 31 dintre cele 38 de mari rafin\u0103rii
\nruse\u0219ti au fost lovite<\/a> de la \u00eenceputul anului, iar cel pu\u021bin 78 dintre cele 83
\nde regiuni ale \u021b\u0103rii se confrunt\u0103 cu probleme legate de aprovizionarea cu
\ncombustibil.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\"Explozie <\/p>\n

Explozie la o rafin\u0103rie din Rusia. FOTO: captur\u0103 video<\/p>\n

Pentru a acoperi
\ndeficitul, Rusia a \u00eenceput s\u0103 importe motorin\u0103 mai scump\u0103 din Belarus,
\nKazahstan, China \u0219i India. Chiar \u015fi a\u015fa, lipsa combustibilului afecteaz\u0103
\ntransporturile, agricultura \u0219i pre\u021burile produselor de baz\u0103, \u00eentr-o economie
\ndeja ap\u0103sat\u0103 de sanc\u021biuni \u0219i de cheltuielile militare.<\/p>\n

Potrivit datelor
\ncitate de editorialist, r\u0103zboiul consum\u0103 direct \u0219i indirect peste 45% din
\nbugetul federal rus. \u00cen primele patru luni ale anului 2026, veniturile Rusiei
\ndin petrol \u0219i gaze au sc\u0103zut cu 38,3%, conform Ministerului rus al Finan\u021belor,
\niar veniturile cumulate ale celor mai mari 28 de companii ruse\u0219ti au fost cu
\n16,7% mai mici fa\u021b\u0103 de anul anterior.<\/p>\n

Nemul\u021bumirea \u00eencepe
\ns\u0103 se vad\u0103 \u0219i politic <\/p>\n

Problemele economice
\nau \u00eenceput s\u0103 se reflecte \u0219i \u00een atitudinea popula\u021biei. Centrul Levada din
\nMoscova, considerat ultima organiza\u021bie independent\u0103 de sondare a opiniei
\npublice din Rusia, indic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 sprijinul pentru continuarea r\u0103zboiului a
\najuns la 24,3%, cel mai sc\u0103zut nivel de la \u00eenceputul conflictului, \u00een timp ce
\nmajoritatea ru\u0219ilor ar sus\u021bine negocieri de pace.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Pentru Vladimir Putin,
\nmomentul este sensibil \u0219i din cauza alegerilor parlamentare programate \u00een
\nseptembrie. De\u0219i opozi\u021bia politic\u0103 real\u0103 este interzis\u0103 \u00een Rusia, o sc\u0103dere a
\nsprijinului pentru partidul Rusia Unit\u0103, chiar \u00een favoarea unor forma\u021biuni
\nacceptate de regim, ar reprezenta o lovitur\u0103 de imagine.<\/p>\n

\u015ei discursul public s-a schimbat, mai observ\u0103 editorialistul Owen Matthew. Criticile directe la adresa autorit\u0103\u021bilor,
\nrare \u00een primii ani ai r\u0103zboiului, au devenit mai frecvente pe re\u021belele sociale.
\nAstfel, pe canalele ruse\u0219ti de Telegram apar imagini cu \u0219oferi furio\u0219i din
\ncauza problemelor cu combustibilul, localnici care critic\u0103 lipsa ap\u0103r\u0103rii
\nantiaeriene dup\u0103 atacurile asupra terminalelor petroliere \u0219i chiar bloggeri
\nmilitari favorabili r\u0103zboiului care contest\u0103 deciziile comandan\u021bilor \u0219i modul
\n\u00een care este gestionat conflictul.<\/p>\n

Semnele care arat\u0103 c\u0103 Vladimir Putin preg\u0103te\u0219te un r\u0103zboi \u00een spa\u021biu: de la arme nucleare pe orbit\u0103, la h\u0103r\u021buirea sateli\u021bilor occidentali <\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cen acest context,
\nVladimir Putin a recunoscut recent existen\u021ba problemelor cu aprovizionarea, dar
\nle-a descris drept \u201etemporare\u201d \u0219i \u201enu critice\u201d \u015fi a transmis c\u0103 Rusia \u00ee\u0219i va
\ncontinua campania militar\u0103.<\/p>\n

Tensiunile din
\ninteriorul elitei ruse <\/p>\n

Chiar dac\u0103
\nnemul\u021bumirea popula\u021biei cre\u0219te, Owen Matthews noteaz\u0103 c\u0103 adev\u0103rata
\nvulnerabilitate pentru Vladimir Putin ar putea veni din interiorul cercului de
\nputere de la Moscova.<\/p>\n

Controlul Kremlinului
\nasupra presei \u0219i societ\u0103\u021bii r\u0103m\u00e2ne puternic, iar o revolt\u0103 intern\u0103 \u00eempotriva
\nliderului rus pare pu\u021bin probabil\u0103 \u00een lipsa unui colaps major al armatei. Un
\ndocument scurs din administra\u021bia preziden\u021bial\u0103 arat\u0103, potrivit autorului, c\u0103
\nautorit\u0103\u021bile au preg\u0103tit scenarii prin care aproape orice rezultat al
\nr\u0103zboiului poate fi prezentat drept o victorie.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u00cen schimb, tensiunile
\ndin diferite grupuri ale elitei ruse <\/a>devin tot mai vizibile. Pe de o parte sunt
\noamenii de afaceri afecta\u021bi de sanc\u021biuni, de sc\u0103derea veniturilor \u0219i de
\nizolarea economic\u0103. De cealalt\u0103 parte se afl\u0103 structurile de securitate \u0219i cei
\ncare au c\u00e2\u0219tigat influen\u021b\u0103 \u0219i bani datorit\u0103 r\u0103zboiului \u0219i care depind de
\ncontinuarea conflictului.<\/p>\n

\u201eToat\u0103 lumea este obosit\u0103 de r\u0103zboi\u201d, ar fi spus recent un oficial rus de rang \u00eenalt pentru
\nrevista Kommersant Vlast. \u201eNu se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103
\nnimic. Totul pare blocat \u00eentr-un fel de gelatin\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 mearg\u0103 nici \u00eenainte,
\nnici \u00eenapoi. Avansurile noastre sunt mai mult dec\u00e2t compensate de atacurile cu
\ndrone [ucrainene].\u201d<\/p>\n

La r\u00e2ndul s\u0103u, Andrei
\nMelnicenko<\/a>, unul dintre cei mai boga\u021bi oameni din Rusia \u0219i supranumit \u201eregele
\n\u00eengr\u0103\u0219\u0103mintelor\u201d, a avertizat \u00eentr-un editorial publicat \u00een The Economist c\u0103
\n\u021bara se \u00eendreapt\u0103 spre un \u201efund de sac\u201d \u0219i a cerut mai mult\u0103 \u201esuveranitate\u201d pentru
\nelite \u0219i cet\u0103\u021beni \u00een fa\u021ba unui sistem tot mai autoritar.<\/p>\n

Analista Tatiana
\nStanovaya de la Carnegie Foundation consider\u0103 c\u0103 situa\u021bia este una f\u0103r\u0103
\nprecedent de la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului. <\/p>\n

\u201ePentru prima dat\u0103 \u00een ani de r\u0103zboi, regimul rus pare s\u0103
\nfie aproape de o ruptur\u0103 intern\u0103\u201d, a spus aceasta, citat\u0103 de Matthews.<\/p>\n

Vladimir Putin nu e dispus s\u0103 renun\u0163e sau s\u0103 fac\u0103 vreun compromis <\/p>\n

\u00cen ciuda acestor
\ntensiuni, Vladimir Putin nu pare preg\u0103tit s\u0103 schimbe direc\u021bia. Editorialistul
\nde la The Independent subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 liderul rus r\u0103m\u00e2ne factorul decisiv \u00een
\npolitica Moscovei \u0219i c\u0103 nu exist\u0103 indicii c\u0103 ar lua \u00een calcul oprirea
\nr\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Dimpotriv\u0103, semnalele
\nvenite din interiorul Kremlinului indic\u0103 preg\u0103tirea unei noi intensific\u0103ri a
\nconflictului.<\/p>\n

Reuters a citat
\nrecent dou\u0103 surse apropiate conducerii ruse, dintre care una are \u00eent\u00e2lniri
\nregulate cu Vladimir Putin, care au vorbit despre o \u201eprobabilitate ridicat\u0103\u201d ca
\nr\u0103zboiul s\u0103 se extind\u0103 \u00een lunile urm\u0103toare.<\/p>\n

Una dintre surse a
\nafirmat c\u0103 Putin este hot\u0103r\u00e2t s\u0103 continue ofensiva pentru cucerirea \u00eentregii
\nregiuni Done\u021bk \u0219i c\u0103 a respins recent propunerile unor consilieri privind un
\ncompromis bazat pe \u00eenghe\u021barea actualei linii a frontului. Cealalt\u0103 surs\u0103 a spus
\nc\u0103 liderul rus \u201eare nevoie de un fel de victorie\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201eVladimir, e timpul s\u0103 te opre\u0219ti\u201d. Trump insist\u0103 c\u0103 Putin este gata s\u0103 \u00eencheie un acord de pace <\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp,
\nunele voci din presa rus\u0103 au \u00eenceput s\u0103 promoveze ideea unei escalad\u0103ri directe
\ncu Occidentul, inclusiv prin atacuri asupra unor baze NATO din statele baltice
\n\u0219i Rom\u00e2nia sau asupra fabricilor europene care produc armament pentru Ucraina.<\/p>\n

Purt\u0103torul de cuv\u00e2nt
\nal Kremlinului, Dmitri Peskov, a sus\u021binut recent c\u0103 \u201enu exist\u0103 nicio \u00eendoial\u0103
\nc\u0103 Europa escaladeaz\u0103 situa\u021bia\u201d, acuz\u00e2nd NATO c\u0103 \u201ea pornit pe drumul
\nmilitariz\u0103rii \u0219i s-a dedicat confrunt\u0103rii cu Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n

Pe de alt\u0103 parte, editorialistul
\nde la The Independent apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 o confruntare direct\u0103 cu o \u021bar\u0103 NATO ar fi
\nuna dintre cele mai riscante decizii pe care le-ar putea lua Kremlinul. Un
\nasemenea pas ar putea reface unitatea unei alian\u021be occidentale afectate de
\ndivergen\u021be, ar reduce scepticismul fa\u021b\u0103 de sprijinul pentru Ucraina \u0219i ar
\natrage noi sanc\u021biuni \u00eempotriva Rusiei.<\/p>\n

Problema, scrie
\neditorialistul, este c\u0103 deciziile lui Vladimir Putin nu sunt \u00eentotdeauna
\ndictate de o evaluare rece a costurilor, ci imprevizibile.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u0218obolanul prins \u00een
\ncol\u021b\u201d \u0219i riscul unei reac\u021bii imprevizibile <\/p>\n

Owen Matthews \u00ee\u0219i
\nconstruie\u0219te analiza \u00een jurul unei pove\u0219ti pe care Vladimir Putin a relatat-o
\n\u00eentr-o serie de interviuri publicate \u00een anul 2000, adunate ulterior \u00een volumul \u201eFirst
\nPerson\u201d.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Liderul rus povestea
\nc\u0103, \u00een copil\u0103rie, a urm\u0103rit un \u0219obolan \u00eentr-o scar\u0103 de bloc din Leningrad. C\u00e2nd
\nanimalul s-a sim\u021bit prins, s-a \u00eentors brusc \u0219i l-a atacat.<\/p>\n

\u201eDeodat\u0103 s-a \u00eentors \u0219i s-a aruncat spre mine. Am fost
\nsurprins \u0219i speriat. Acum \u0219obolanul m\u0103 urm\u0103rea pe mine\u201d, a spus liderul rus folosind aceast\u0103 \u00eent\u00e2mplare pentru a
\nexplica pericolul de a \u00eempinge un adversar \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie f\u0103r\u0103 ie\u0219ire. <\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103 aceea\u0219i imagine
\na fost interpretat\u0103 diferit de liderii occidentali, care au v\u0103zut \u00een ea un
\navertisment privind modul \u00een care Vladimir Putin ar putea reac\u021biona atunci c\u00e2nd
\nse simte amenin\u021bat.<\/p>\n

Pentru liderul de la
\nKremlin, aceast\u0103 logic\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 continuarea r\u0103zboiului p\u00e2n\u0103 la ob\u021binerea unei
\nvictorii, chiar dac\u0103 pre\u021bul economic \u0219i politic devine tot mai mare. <\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia lui Owen
\nMatthews, tocmai aceast\u0103 combina\u021bie dintre presiune intern\u0103, refuzul
\ncompromisului \u0219i convingerea c\u0103 Rusia nu poate pierde face ca situa\u021bia s\u0103 fie
\npericuloas\u0103 nu doar pentru Ucraina, ci \u0219i pentru Occident.<\/p>\n

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